Round 6: The Cross Hands

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Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby necklessone » 25 Apr 2014, 19:15:04

As the perpetrator of the violent beating of a middle-aged woman ran off, the proposed coin flip was quickly forgotten as the group chased after him. All but Shane Hawkins, that is. For Shane, life peaked in high school and the coin he donated to be flipped represented a double digit percentage of his current liquid cash. He dropped to his knees and began sifting through the dirt.

Little did he know that someone had actually pocketed the coin earlier to prevent the coin flip in the first place. Local legend says Shane is still there to this day, searching.

Simple_Simon - Still looking for his change
Shane Hawkins
A local and a noted bully, you've never quite lost your intimidating nature. Also, you're still an ass. You may PM me during a Round to nullify the vote of a person who has voted for you (if they move their vote afterwards, it will still be nullified). In addition, you spike their drink and they will have some sort of post restriction on the following Round. You must wait two Rounds after activating this power before you may activate it again.


Image

The rest of the group descended upon The Cross Hand crying semi-drunkely for justice and more crisps. With only peanuts to offer, the barkeep instead told the mob that an angry looking man had recently run in and made a beeline for the men’s room. The pub crawlers muttered and nodded, each grabbing a barstool, chair, or handful of peanuts before following.

No one knows who through the first punch or why, but the situation quickly went from a standard bums rush to an all out 20 person brawl. Choose your targets and start punching because some people aren’t going to walk away from this.

---

Yesterday’s event was cancelled via a power usage. There was no result.

This round is a double vote; remember to keep both names together and retract both and revote if you need to change.

The players with the two highest vote totals at the end of the Round will be lynched.

It is also a 48 47 hour day, ending Sunday night.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby necklessone » 25 Apr 2014, 19:17:08

Simple_Simon : 6 : FurinMirado, MaxFrost, Iron Clad Burrito, Smirker, dferrantino, Hellheart
Smirker : 5 : Ozymandias, Stigmata, Antipater, sphenodont, Meta4
RaveBomb : 2 : Blindsniper83, twdog
7-zark-7 : 1 : Rictus
Admetus : 1 : RaveBomb
dferrantino : 1 : Admetus
Iron Clad Burrito : 1 : Simple_Simon
Rictus : 1 : 7-zark-7
twdog : 1 : San

Nullified votes (1) : Visigoth

[+] Votes
Simple_Simon voted for Okaros (Retracted)
Meta4 voted for Okaros (Retracted)
Hellheart voted for Simple_Simon (Retracted)
Rictus voted for 7-zark-7
Ozymandias voted for Smirker
Stigmata voted for Smirker
FurinMirado voted for Simple_Simon
Admetus voted for dferrantino
Antipater voted for Smirker
7-zark-7 voted for Rictus
RaveBomb voted for Rictus (Retracted)
twdog voted for Ozymandias (Retracted)
Okaros voted for Simple_Simon (Retracted)
That PJ voted for Smirker (Retracted)
RaveBomb voted for twdog (Retracted)
RaveBomb voted for Admetus
dferrantino voted for That PJ (Retracted)
sphenodont voted for Smirker
Blindsniper83 voted for RaveBomb
Visigoth voted for Simple_Simon (Nullified)
dferrantino voted for Okaros (Retracted)
Smirker voted for Ozymandias (Retracted)
MaxFrost voted for Simple_Simon
San voted for twdog
twdog voted for RaveBomb
Iron Clad Burrito voted for Simple_Simon
Meta4 voted for Smirker
Simple_Simon voted for Iron Clad Burrito
Smirker voted for Simple_Simon
Hellheart voted for Smirker (Retracted)
dferrantino voted for Smirker (Retracted)
dferrantino voted for Simple_Simon
Hellheart had their vote moved to Simple_Simon

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Admetus » 25 Apr 2014, 19:18:59

Did Smirker die, or Simple_Simon? The obituary says Smirker, but doesn't say vigilante, and Simple_Simon seems to lead the vote count.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby necklessone » 25 Apr 2014, 19:19:51

It was Simon; I just corrected.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Smirker » 25 Apr 2014, 19:20:23

I'm confused. That is not my description in the OP. Simple_simon is who you meant; right?

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby necklessone » 25 Apr 2014, 19:24:49

Written on the mirror in black marker:
"I have not been nullified, and I am not network"

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Admetus » 25 Apr 2014, 19:28:40

I got back just before deadline, but there wasn't enough time to read through everything. Now it seems someone's moved a vote to kill Simon, which overcame even Simon's own manipulation.

The way Smirker's vig shot looked to me, he was only taking it because he was about to die. If he was willing to shoot the twins, why not before he was on the way out? I would say the Network wanted to clean them up before it lost the opportunity, but why not just convert one today? They can't have worried about the twins winning the coin game, there's no way a Human would have canceled that event, it must have been killed by the Network.

The most reasonable thing I can think of right now is that Smirker hoped shooting the twins would get him out of the lynch. If he was a Network vigilante, there's no safer shot for him to take, every other human would make him even deader, but shooting the twins might have gotten him a reprieve.

I'll put my vote there to start, Smirker.

-edit-
Shit, I don't have a second vote right now. Retracting vote until I can come up with the other name.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby MaxFrost » 25 Apr 2014, 19:34:23

That's a really aggressive early attack Admentus....

Problem is you're partly right. This is a conversion game, which means that anybody can be compromised. Typically someone like Smirker is fairly safe to trust, but this time around we're not exactly sure.

I know if I had a power like that, I'd shoot someone, but I don't think I would have taken the twins out.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Smirker » 25 Apr 2014, 19:41:46

No, I took my shot when I did to several reasons:
1) so necklessone would potentially be able to resolve the Vigi before he left (That worked out)
2) so people would have an opportunity to alter their votes in the sftermath.

I could've waited for a last 5 min snipe- but that would've had me very actively determine he end result. Which not the helpful goal I was going for. Honestly, I'm very sad at the event cancellation divi move. I wonder if that was Meta4s bonus?

[e] like I said before; I really didn't expect them to be eliminated together

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 25 Apr 2014, 20:54:55

I told you they were Lovers. Every indication said that they were the Lovers. There doesn't need to be twincest for that to apply.

Regardless, let's not make today about Smirker. Some of us at least have had this discussion, and with Simon flipping human that probably will distort things quite a bit. They could both be human, but I'm not about to chip in on that discussion because you know where I stand.

Who would make a good second and third candidate?

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 25 Apr 2014, 21:25:38

I've already got two players in mind that I'm heavily inclined to vote for, but I'm going to start with something I almost never do: I'm going to poke.

RETRACTED was Admetus, you've had a decent postcount but I feel like you're offering less than you normally do in terms of reads and analysis. It's like you're only offering tidbits, conclusions, and an occasional but very rare deeper look at something other than mechanics. If nothing else, you usually cover in detail one or two things that totally escaped my notice. What gives, and when are you going to hit your stride?

I really hope it's going to be today, because I doubt I'm the only person who's starting to get nervous about your reduced contribution and your name's been floated around a lot as a possible conversion.

RETRACTED was MaxFrost, I'm holding you to your semi-promise of contribution from these two posts yesterday:

MaxFrost wrote:I'll try to be more vocal, but that's gotten me killed in the past (in both roles)

Very crazy discussion. I'll try to post my thoughts here soon from the peanut gallery, as I'm not usually one to step out in the limelight.

MaxFrost wrote:Just means we need to provide more commentary on our own!


Ozy hasn't chipped in about events yesterday, but he's felt fairly human to me. In addition to whatever else you're going to look at, Ozy, could you speculate on how many Networkers voted on singletons or doubletons yesterday?

Zark, yesterday was the first day that I got my "Zark is probably human" feeling. Please keep mixing in actual contribution; I get really suspicious when you make a bunch of posts with a lot of flavor but nothing for analysis.

I am, as always, willing to chip in about practically any subject if asked, and will comment on any reads or analysis provided by somebody else if I have anything to contribute.
Last edited by Hellheart on 26 Apr 2014, 13:37:45, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 25 Apr 2014, 21:35:16

Smirker wrote:[e] like I said before; I really didn't expect them to be eliminated together

You keep saying that, but damn, it sounds hollow. They were saying outright that it was a lovers mechanic, and they were already more powerful than your bog-standard lovers. Of course they would die together, and your other idea of one getting a revenge vig is even more ludicrous.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 01:49:13

Now that we know both Twins were Human, I've decided to redo some of Simple_Simon's analysis from yesterday in order to look for potential Network manipulation of Twin votes, either by players (1) voting FOR a Twin or (2) voting WITH a Twin.

However, I've made a few changes to his methodology:

(a) I'm only looking at votes cast AFTER the Twins revealed themselves on Day 2 and BEFORE they were killed on Day 5;
(b) I'm NOT counting votes cast for a player BEFORE a Twin then voted for that player;
(c) I've also noted cases on Day 2 where a player switched his vote OFF of a Twin after they revealed (i.e., "anti-manipulation")

So here's the full list of votes by living players that I think are most relevant to potential Network manipulation of the Twins for Days 2-5:

(Red = voting for Twin)
(Pink = voting for who Twin has already voted for)
(Blue = vote change OFF of Twin)
(Numbers refer to overall lynch vote# that day)

DAY 2 (post Twin reveal)
(15) Hellheart switches OFF Okaros to put 2nd vote on San
(16) Meta4 puts 4th vote on That PJ
(23) 7-Zark-7 puts 2nd vote on Okaros
(24) Ozymandias moves OFF of Okaros to put 3rd vote on HellHeart

DAY 3 (Double Vote)
(3x2) Meta4 puts 2nd vote on Okaros AND (EDIT) 2nd vote on That PJ
(4x2) stigmata puts 3rd vote on Okaros AND (EDIT) 3rd vote on That PJ
(9) That PJ puts 1st vote on Simple_Simon AND 2nd vote on dferrantino
(11) Ozymandias puts 2nd vote on Simple_Simon
(13) RaveBomb puts 3rd vote on Simple_Simon
(14) Visigoth puts 3rd vote on dferrantino
(16) That PJ puts 2nd vote on rekard
(18) Rictus puts 3rd vote on rekard
(21) sphenodont puts 4th vote on rekard
(23x2) Blindsniper puts 3rd vote on Okaros AND 4th vote on That PJ
(24) Okaros puts 5th vote on rekard AND 5th vote on Meta4
(26) Smirker puts 6th vote on rekard
(27x2) Iron Clad Burrito puts 7th vote on rekard AND 6th vote on Meta4
(29x2) FurinMirado puts 7th vote on Meta4 AND 4th vote on Simple_Simon

DAY 4
(8) That PJ puts 1st vote on Clearasday
(9) Okaros puts 1st vote on Blindsniper
(19) Admetus puts 2nd vote on Clearasday
(20) Rictus puts 1st vote on Okaros
(21) Maxfrost puts 3rd vote on Clearasday
(22) Iron Clad Burrito puts 2nd vote on Okaros
(24) sphenodont puts 3rd vote on Okaros

DAY 5
(2) Meta4 puts 2nd vote on Okaros
(9) Okaros puts 3rd vote on Simple_Simon
(14) That PJ puts 4th vote on Smirker
(17) dferrantino puts 1st vote on That PJ
(18) sphenodont puts 5th vote on Smirker
(20) Visigoth puts 4th vote on Simple_Simon
(21) dferrantino puts 3rd vote on Okaros
Smirker's Vig Shot (Wonder Twin powers, deactivate)

If I made any mistakes, please let me know.

Obviously not all of these votes are equal in terms of the amount of potential manipulation they brought to bear on the Twins, so I'm going to look at them more in-depth later today to try to identify the more significant ones.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 26 Apr 2014, 09:36:50, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby FurinMirado » 26 Apr 2014, 04:34:07

Given the shenanigans late in the day, I feel pretty good about voting for Smirker and dferrantino

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby dferrantino » 26 Apr 2014, 08:02:25

Meh. As the death of a human was 100% my fault last night I figure I should probably explain myself. It's not much though...

Based on the last few posts by Smirker and simon, I got huge human vibes from Smirker and wolf vibes from simon. That's the entire basis for my snipe. I'm really annoyed that simon turned out to be human.

I'm also still drunk from last night, and at work to prep for a power shutdown in our server room. This is going to be SO MUCH FUN :cry:

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 09:08:40

necklessone wrote:Simple_Simon : 6 : FurinMirado, MaxFrost, Iron Clad Burrito, Smirker, dferrantino, Hellheart
Smirker : 5 : Ozymandias, Stigmata, Antipater, sphenodont, Meta4

Nullified votes (1) : Visigoth

Visigoth voted for Simple_Simon (Nullified)
Hellheart voted for Smirker (Retracted)
Hellheart had their vote moved to Simple_Simon

Anyone want to admit to switching Hellheart's vote?

That's what basically wound up killing Simon-- well, that and the fact Simon wouldn't vote for Smirker (though apparently Simon did at least nullify Visigoth's vote).

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 09:29:34

oops replied instead of edited-- never mind.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Admetus » 26 Apr 2014, 09:35:47

Ozy, I think your red header should probably nix the "or voting for who Twin has already voted for)." Right?

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 09:37:07

Admetus wrote:Ozy, I think your red header should probably nix the "or voting for who Twin has already voted for)." Right?

Fixed, thanks.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 10:51:12

So here are some of the key votes that I think are most relevant to potential Twin manipulation by the Network:

DAY 2 (post Twin reveal)

(15) Hellheart switches OFF Okaros to put 2nd vote on San
Given that Hellheart had just posted he wouldn't be back online, I think this is pretty clear evidence that Hellheart was not trying to pressure the Twins into voting for a Human. Granted, the vote switch may have been prompted by fear of retaliation, so it doesn't mean he's not a Networker. But I think it does mean he wasn't trying to manipulate the Twin votes-- which is consistent with Hellheart's later votes through Day 5.

(16) Meta4 puts 4th vote on That PJ
So at first this vote clearly seemed like manipulation, because it ultimately forced the Twins to vote for DOM. But the thing is, at the time there was only one now-unconfirmed player who had multiple votes on him: San. The same San who earlier in Day 2 voted for ... Meta4. A Network comprised of San-Meta4 would be pretty crazy, but would it be that crazy? Seems unlikely. Of course, Meta4's vote was cast shortly after the Twins revealed, so it's possible that the Network saw the Twins more as a threat than a tool at that point, and actually wanted to lynch them.

DAY 3 (Double Vote)

(parts of this may sound familiar because I analyzed some of the late Day 3 votes on Day 4)

(3x2) Meta4 puts 2nd vote on Okaros AND 2nd vote on That PJ
This, however, seems more like Twin manipulation, since given what just happened to DOM on Day 2, the consequences of voting for BOTH Twins should have been pretty clear to Meta4.

(4x2) stigmata puts 3rd vote on Okaros AND 3rd vote on That PJ
Could be consistent with Network manipulation, but it's a pretty risky move because (a) the Twins hadn't voted yet and (b) stigmata already had a lynch vote on him, so he would be a natural Twin retaliation target. So I think stigmata-- at least as of Day 3-- was unlikely to be part of the Network (unless they still hadn't yet figured out that they should manipulate the Twins instead of lynch them).

(23x2) Blindsniper puts 3rd vote on Okaros AND 4th vote on That PJ
This was a key vote, as it pushed That PJ into a five-way tie with rekard, Meta4, ICB, and Smirker, thereby threatening the Twins enough that it would be reasonable to expect Okaros to follow That PJ onto rekard and Simon. Was that Blindsniper's true intent? And if so, which of Meta4 / ICB / Smirker was he trying to protect?

(26) Smirker puts 6th vote on rekard
Smirker originally put the 5th vote on ICB and the 1st vote on Maxson. After he negotiated a detente with ICB, he switched to rekard but instead of voting for Meta4, kept his throwaway vote on Maxson-- at a time when Smirker himself had 4 votes, and was only two behind the lead.

Smirker claims he was angling for the 2nd place reward, but I don't think someone with a role as important as Vigilante would put himself at such risk with vote manipulation powers in play-- which is why I suspect he knew they were out of play, because a Network teammate had already cancelled all VM powers.

(27x2) Iron Clad Burrito puts 7th vote on rekard AND 6th vote on Meta4
These votes both make sense, given ICB's position. But something about his negotiations with Smirker seemed a bit off to me-- almost as though they were staging it so that ICB wouldn't look as bad for putting a killing vote on rekard? If so, I think ICB might be the Network teammate who cancelled the VM powers.

DAY 4

(20) Rictus puts 1st vote on Okaros
Consistent with Twin manipulation, but Rictus already had a vote on him, and no one else had more than two, so this vote would be a bit risky for a Networker.

(21) Maxfrost puts 3rd vote on Clearasday
This is more consistent with Network Twin manipulation, since I think this was the vote that ultimately led to Okaros joining That PJ on CAD, instead of, say, both switching to one of the Okaros voters.

(22) Iron Clad Burrito puts 2nd vote on Okaros
Consistent with Twin manipulation, but also risky because he already had 2 votes. However, Maxfrost putting the third vote on CAD did mitigate some of ICB's risk, since that meant switching off CAD to ICB wouldn't put the Twins in a better position.

(24) sphenodont puts 3rd vote on Okaros
At first glance, this looks VERY consistent with Network Twin manipulation, since by switching off of ICB to Okaors, sphenodont basically forced the Twins to take out CAD. However, I re-read the Day 4 thread, and I think spheno had good reason to believe that Smirker, Simon, Hellheart, and Blindsniper (based on his Day 3 vote) might all join him on Okaros, which would have been enough to lynch him. So I read spheno's vote more as an attack on the Twins than as Twin manipulation by a Networker.

DAY 5

(2) Meta4 puts 2nd vote on Okaros
Consistent with Network Twin manipulation.

(17) dferrantino puts 1st vote on That PJ
(21) dferrantino puts 3rd vote on Okaros
Not sure how to interpret the first vote for the less endangered Twin, but the second is clearly consistent with Network Twin manipulation.


EDIT: I'm going to give others a chance to weigh in on some of my reads before I vote.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 26 Apr 2014, 11:03:14, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 26 Apr 2014, 11:03:11

Admetus wrote:Ozy, I think your red header should probably nix the "or voting for who Twin has already voted for)." Right?

Gah, it's like you're screwing with me on purpose!

I feel like the vote switch may have been dferrantino's doing as well, since he voted for Smirker, then switched to Simon. He moved from the source of the vote move to its destination. That would work as a requirement for a vote-moving power on a role that has other abilities.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Admetus » 26 Apr 2014, 11:33:56

Hah, I know what you mean, Hellheart, but it's just laziness. I keep getting distracted.

Responding to your earlier post, I'd say it's half intentionally editing down the longer-winded stuff in favor of presenting simpler posts with mostly just conclusion, and half "being off my stride." Mostly I keep balking at the conversion mechanic, it really cuts into the analysis possibilities. Every two days, it seems like anything that might have made someone look human now has to be questioned.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 26 Apr 2014, 11:38:42

Alright, I'll try another approach. First, a point open to everyone: the target of the Vig shot bothers the hell out of me since Smirker says he thought only one twin would die

Smirker wrote:*Smirker whirls and smashes ThatPJ with both stools* [VIG SHOT]

I cannot stress enough that if a Twin was converted, it HAD to be Okaros. That PJ is too new to maintain a PM charade with someone as experienced as Okaros, let alone continue to behave in a convincing way in the thread. It's far less dangerous to convert the player who knows how to work the crowd, so to speak.

If Smirker believed that only one twin would die, why did he shoot the one that is most likely to be human based on both reads posted here and common fucking game sense?

Admetus wrote:They can't have worried about the twins winning the coin game, there's no way a Human would have canceled that event, it must have been killed by the Network.

Do you think that the game being canceled is a necessary result of this game, or do you think the game being canceled is a separate power (or reward, someone mentioned that above) expenditure?

Admetus wrote:The most reasonable thing I can think of right now is that Smirker hoped shooting the twins would get him out of the lynch. If he was a Network vigilante, there's no safer shot for him to take, every other human would make him even deader, but shooting the twins might have gotten him a reprieve.

This. And since the Twins split their votes between him and Simon, he couldn't actually affect the vote totals just by shooting them. It changed the conversation.

Admetus, do you think that ICB's response to the Smirker Vig shot may be related to dferrantino's eventual choice in some way, based on this post you made on Day 5 that referred to the odd string of posts between Ravebomb, ICB, and dferrantino?

(bold is mine for emphasis)

Subject: Round 5: Pocket Change

Admetus wrote:dferrantino is still pinging my wolf radar. He's barely in the game, seems like just laying low. And while other days he's made one content-free vote post, today we get a post that suggests he's been reading along, just not posting in this thread.

I may move on to a vote that matters more, I'm especially looking at Simon, Smirker, and ICB -- but I wanted to bring that up because dferrantino's been suspicious to me all game.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 12:21:43

Hellheart wrote:In addition to whatever else you're going to look at, Ozy, could you speculate on how many Networkers voted on singletons or doubletons yesterday?

Normally I would, but I don't think bandwagon analysis is very helpful until at least 1 Wolf/Networker has been identified.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 26 Apr 2014, 12:48:59

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:In addition to whatever else you're going to look at, Ozy, could you speculate on how many Networkers voted on singletons or doubletons yesterday?

Normally I would, but I don't think bandwagon analysis is very helpful until at least 1 Wolf/Networker has been identified.

I was thinking along the same lines, in that if Smirker's a wolf the voting lines would change drastically, and if he isn't then it's difficult to know out of context where they would vote.

How about your take on Smirker's Vig shot on That PJ?

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 13:10:57

Hellheart wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:In addition to whatever else you're going to look at, Ozy, could you speculate on how many Networkers voted on singletons or doubletons yesterday?

Normally I would, but I don't think bandwagon analysis is very helpful until at least 1 Wolf/Networker has been identified.

I was thinking along the same lines, in that if Smirker's a wolf the voting lines would change drastically, and if he isn't then it's difficult to know out of context where they would vote.

How about your take on Smirker's Vig shot on That PJ?

It certainly doesn't make me think that he's any less of a Networker.

I feel like a Human Vig would have shot a Twin either on:

(a) Day 3 when Smirker was in early lynch trouble (thereby making him an attractive eventual Twin target), or
(b) much earlier on Day 5, after Okaros picked up two early votes, which meant that the lynch would likely be again manipulated directly by the Twins and indirectly by the Network.

But a Networker Vig who knows both Twins are Human is less likely to fire until he really thinks he might die.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 26 Apr 2014, 13:37:01

Under the assumption that Smirker is probably going to be leading the lynch, I'm going to push forward Dferrantino and Meta4 as my preferred 2nd lynchee candidates.

Still waiting on that MaxFrost analysis though :P

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 13:58:16

For me, the Day 3 lynch is still the key vote.

I believe that the cancellation of vote manipulation powers indicates that the Network was most actively orchestrating that vote because a Networker was among the lynch leaders.

Which means that at least one and possibly two out of Smirker, ICB, and Meta4 are part of the Network.

For the reasons discussed in my prior posts, I most suspect Smirker and ICB

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Admetus » 26 Apr 2014, 14:11:14

Well, I've really blown my afternoon on YouTube videos and Ars Technica articles. I especially regret following that link to the wiki page on light saber fighting styles. But soon I switch over to a much more pleasant evening with fine dining and symphony orchestra, so I can buff up my self-esteem a bit.

Hellheart's questions are relatively straightforward, though:

Hellheart wrote:If Smirker believed that only one twin would die, why did he shoot the one that is most likely to be human based on both reads posted here and common fucking game sense?

I'm going to read between the lines here and conclude that the actual question is: Can we blame Smirker's shot on ignorance instead of malice? (Hanlon's Razor) Yes, it's possible. But like I said, I just think it's hard to understand the choice of timing except as a use-it-or-lose-it shot that might help him instead of hurt him, which fits best as a Network player's decision. Also, I agree with ICB that the level of misunderstanding required far outstrips the level of malice required for the Network explanation to win out.

[+] ICB quote reference
ICB Says: You keep saying that, but damn, it sounds hollow. They were saying outright that it was a lovers mechanic, and they were already more powerful than your bog-standard lovers. Of course they would die together, and your other idea of one getting a revenge vig is even more ludicrous.


Hellheart wrote:Do you think that the game being canceled is a necessary result of this game, or do you think the game being canceled is a separate power (or reward, someone mentioned that above) expenditure?

I think the GM is clear on this point:
OP wrote:Little did he know that someone had actually pocketed the coin earlier to prevent the coin flip in the first place.
[...]
Yesterday’s event was cancelled via a power usage. There was no result.


Hellheart wrote:Admetus, do you think that ICB's response to the Smirker Vig shot may be related to dferrantino's eventual choice in some way, based on this post you made on Day 5 that referred to the odd string of posts between Ravebomb, ICB, and dferrantino?

You mean ICB's suggestion that Smirker couldn't be a Network shooter, which you immediately challenged? And then dferrantino's vote for Smirker then (after a short exchange between you and Smirker) switch to Simple_Simon?

To restate ICB's argument, he just thinks the twins should have been kept alive by the Network as long as possible. I disagree because "who else would a Network shooter in danger shoot at?" But Smirker wasn't making any argument along these lines between dferrantino's votes. There are three likely explanations: 1) dferrantino was talking in a back channel, 2) dferrantino also suspects Hellheart and was swayed by Smirker's suspicion, 3) dferrantino changed his mind and it had nothing to do with any conversation.

I kind of think that if dferrantino and Smirker were both Network, dferrantino would never have switched. He'd either decide he was sacrificing Smirker, or he'd decide Smirker was going to be fine. Dferrantino is usually pretty decisive and quick-acting as a wolf in those scenarios.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Admetus » 26 Apr 2014, 14:15:21

Oh, and related to my poke of dferrantino that you quoted, Hellheart -- he did pick up his posting quite a bit later in the day. I don't like claiming credit for that kind of thing, but it can't be a bad thing to get more posts. And to address another thing in the question, I don't see how RaveBomb is connected to any of this. Or at least, nothing jumped out to me at all when re-reading.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 26 Apr 2014, 15:59:24

Admetus wrote:Oh, and related to my poke of dferrantino that you quoted, Hellheart -- he did pick up his posting quite a bit later in the day. I don't like claiming credit for that kind of thing, but it can't be a bad thing to get more posts. And to address another thing in the question, I don't see how RaveBomb is connected to any of this. Or at least, nothing jumped out to me at all when re-reading.

I originally thought your post calling dferrantino out was obliquely suggesting that he was posting in another forum with ICB and/or Ravebomb, since it was sandwiched between Ravebomb-ICB posts that could be a twinspeak facsimile, could be a power activation requirement, or could've just been a random interaction for the hell of it.

Honestly, even if Smirker's shot was motivated by ignorance of the Lovers' nature, a Network-related reason for him to shoot That PJ instead of Okaros is to keep Okaros alive so he could be converted. One twin is no longer a threat, and Okaros could easily just drop off the map as a result. The only other reason I can think of for him to shoot That PJ is that he's lying out of his ass, was pretty sure they were lovers, and shot one because he figured it'd kill both.

I'm struggling for a reason that fits his supposed view of the twin dynamic in the light of his choice to shoot That PJ instead of Okaros at that point in time. Sure, That PJ is the one voting for Smirker, but if Okaros survives that shot he's going to switch his vote to Smirker. That reason only works for a shot at :59.
Last edited by Hellheart on 26 Apr 2014, 16:22:20, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 26 Apr 2014, 16:14:46

Hellheart wrote:
Admetus wrote:Oh, and related to my poke of dferrantino that you quoted, Hellheart -- he did pick up his posting quite a bit later in the day. I don't like claiming credit for that kind of thing, but it can't be a bad thing to get more posts. And to address another thing in the question, I don't see how RaveBomb is connected to any of this. Or at least, nothing jumped out to me at all when re-reading.

I originally thought your post calling dferrantino out was obliquely suggesting that he was posting in another forum with ICB and/or Ravebomb, since it was sandwiched between Ravebomb-ICB posts that could be a twinspeak facsimile, could be a power activation requirement, or could've just been a random interaction for the hell of it.


With Ravebomb and me, most times the easiest explanation is best. We just made callbacks to prior games, movies, and TV shows. Dferr popped in there to give the proper response to "The Greater Good."
---
To answer Ozy from earlier, I do not have a vote manipulation/game cancelling power; I am the wrong tree to bark up.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Blindsniper83 » 26 Apr 2014, 18:23:20

i was Redacted in rekards description my vote counted as 2, or i lost a vote off me, but i never knew which until the next day
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 26 Apr 2014, 21:39:18

Let's not get crazy with the role reveals on a conversion day, alright?

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby San » 27 Apr 2014, 05:17:04

Hey hey watch where ur shoving! AH MY BEER!

Antipater and sphenodont go take it outside!! :evil:

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby 7-zark-7 » 27 Apr 2014, 08:11:56

Right, so San makes a good point about role reveals on a conversion day, & this appears to be in response to Blindsniper's blonde moment

That's the problem with conversion games - you never know when someone's hair is going to get dyed

or if the collar will match the cuffs

the what?

carpet manages the drapes?

still don't follow

will the hair on their head match their pubs

this is the crossed hands, I understand (although don't appreciate) the anti-ginger sentiment against Rekard, but what's that got to do with the pub?

I think he meant Blindsniper's pubic hair

the hell man? Why in the name of Christ, the salmon of doubt, and the immortal Ernest Borgnine would you say that, and what are you smoking?

I was trying to be subtle

Old Bluetext McTooMuchInformation up there should try that sometime

But why did Blindsniper feel he should reveal? It's not like he's drawing any traction in the lynch votes

My point exactly. It's a shift, and it bodes examining

You want to peek up his skirt

Christ man. I'll be voting for you next, mark my words

that's not a bad idea

Not a good one either, but I'm told I need to peek up two skirts today, which, in reality, shouldn't be something I'd object to, but you're changing the subject

It doesn't seem like you're paying enough attention. Look, just throw another name out there & see what happens

Okay, will the real Smirker Please stand up? I still worry about the vig shot as a way for a convert to literally kill 2 birds with one stone & to act in self preservation

Perhaps not your best plan

You think I have a plan?

[+] I find I agree with some of the Ozy logic here
http://forum.thewolfgame.net/viewtopic.php?f=74&t=530#p25762
Ozymandias wrote:(23x2) Blindsniper puts 3rd vote on Okaros AND 4th vote on That PJ
This was a key vote, as it pushed That PJ into a five-way tie with rekard, Meta4, ICB, and Smirker, thereby threatening the Twins enough that it would be reasonable to expect Okaros to follow That PJ onto rekard and Simon. Was that Blindsniper's true intent? And if so, which of Meta4 / ICB / Smirker was he trying to protect?

(26) Smirker puts 6th vote on rekard
Smirker originally put the 5th vote on ICB and the 1st vote on Maxson. After he negotiated a detente with ICB, he switched to rekard but instead of voting for Meta4, kept his throwaway vote on Maxson-- at a time when Smirker himself had 4 votes, and was only two behind the lead.

Smirker claims he was angling for the 2nd place reward, but I don't think someone with a role as important as Vigilante would put himself at such risk with vote manipulation powers in play-- which is why I suspect he knew they were out of play, because a Network teammate had already cancelled all VM powers.


More in a bit,

7z7

All,

((Talk about ironic (and I will). I've been a mite bandwidth constrained. As many of you know, I manage the engineering department at a television distribution hub, & although my gig is more on the post side, I've got a long history in broadcast, & have been contacted by a network (no, not that one that replaces you with a robot, at least, that's what HR tells me). Several contacts at the local NBC owned & operated channel 4 asked me to interview for a director level job.

Now, I like my job, & I'm not hunting, but director vs manager has it's own appeal, and it dusts off a few skills I don't get to utilize in my current job. Broadcast (barring emergencies) tends to be a little less change-driven, & I might get to see my family more. But my point (and I do have one) is I just find it ironic (I said I would talk about it) that the Network is trying to convert me in real life during this game.

On the flip side, I've been managing back to back upgrades. Monday was a 12 hour day, Tuesday 14, Wed 16.5 Thursday 10, Friday 14, Saturday 14, & Sunday is looking a bit busy. The rush is due to projects which are fast tracked & I need to deliver upon before taking paternity leave in July))
"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker
"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Meta4 » 27 Apr 2014, 08:24:01

I'm still suspicious of REDACTED - Was Ice Cold Burrito's questionable attack on the twinsies. He faulted them for self-preservation voting right after admitting to doing the same. Very fishy.

I don't have any strong leads for a second place vote, so I'll throw it at REDACTED - Was Smirker for now. Can't trust a man that is smirking all the time.
Last edited by Meta4 on 27 Apr 2014, 15:11:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 27 Apr 2014, 09:41:24

7-zark-7 wrote:Right, so San makes a good point about role reveals on a conversion day, & this appears to be in response to Blindsniper's blonde moment

You mean Hellheart, not San. San just got pissed off at being jostled.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby necklessone » 27 Apr 2014, 09:49:29

Deadline in about 8 hours.
Smirker : 4 : FurinMirado, Ozymandias, 7-zark-7, Meta4
dferrantino : 2 : Hellheart, FurinMirado
Iron Clad Burrito : 2 : Meta4, Ozymandias
Antipater : 1 : San
Blindsniper83 : 1 : 7-zark-7
Meta4 : 1 : Hellheart
sphenodont : 1 : San

No vote recorded (13) : Admetus, Antipater, Blindsniper83, dferrantino, Iron Clad Burrito, MaxFrost, RaveBomb, Rictus, Smirker, sphenodont, Stigmata, twdog, Visigoth

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby 7-zark-7 » 27 Apr 2014, 09:54:32

Are you ready, Steve? Aha! Andy? Yeah!O-man? Ok.
All right, fellas, let's go!

Well, it's been getting so hard
Thinkin' bout the things Sam did to me


(what?)

My dreams are getting so strange
I'd like to tell you everything I see


(Christ, here we go)

(I don't think I want to know)

I see a man at the back as a matter of fact
His eyes are blue like a sun


(Blue sun? Wrong movie mate)

(You can't stop the signal though, unless we're talking Melange Addiction)

(Also the wrong movie)

(Spice must flow, all I'm saying)

And a girl in disableds let no one ignore her
'Cause she knows she's the passionate one


(Now hold on one second)

Their eyes were like lightning, everybody was frightening
And the brew was soothing, and they all started grooving
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah

And Pierce Brosnan at the back said everyone attack
And it turned into a bar roomblitz
And the girl in the corner said boy, I wanna warn ya
It'll turn into a bar roomblitz


(Wait, Pierce Brosnan?)

bar roomblitz
bar roomblitz
bar roomblitz
bar roomblitz

Oh, I'm reaching out for something
Touching nothing's all I ever do


(You'd better keep your hands to yourself old friend)

Oh, I softly call you over
When you appear there's nothing left of you


(So Blanks. Ah... I ~got~ that reference)

Now the man in the back
Is ready to crack as he raises his hands to the sky
And the girl in the corner is everyone's mourner
She could kill you with a wink of her eye


(she's not the only one)

(Anyone else trying to figure out what Remington Steele is doing here?)

Oh yeah, it was electric, so frantically hectic
And the band started leaving, 'cause they all stopped breathing
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah


('Stopped Breathing'... that would make a good name for a band. Steven, write that down)

(I'm not a bass player anymore)

(We can get the band back together if you want)

(No we can't. Gary sold my guitar to buy drugs)

And the man at the back said everyone attack
And it turned into a bar roomblitz
And the girl in the corner said boy, I wanna warn ya
It'll turn into a bar roomblitz
bar roomblitz
Blitz
Blitz
Blitz


More in a bit,

7z7
"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker
"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 27 Apr 2014, 10:25:28

Meta4 wrote:I'm still suspicious of Ice Cold Burrito's questionable attack on the twinsies. He faulted them for self-preservation voting right after admitting to doing the same. Very fishy.


If I controlled 4 votes, you could consider the situations equivalent.

I think you're just pissed 'cause I put you in trouble. BUUUUUT that's OK.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 27 Apr 2014, 11:02:03

Although I completely disagreed with ICB's reasoning yesterday and still find his train of thought to be generally baffling, he has felt very human these past couple of days.

I'd be willing to say, at least up to today, that he's my strongest human read right now.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Ozymandias » 27 Apr 2014, 11:16:26

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:To answer Ozy from earlier, I do not have a vote manipulation/game cancelling power; I am the wrong tree to bark up.

What, we're just supposed to just take your word for it?

You would tear me a new one if I tried to get away with a claim like that.

Which is why ICB remains one of my top Network suspects.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 27 Apr 2014, 11:24:23

Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:To answer Ozy from earlier, I do not have a vote manipulation/game cancelling power; I am the wrong tree to bark up.

What, we're just supposed to just take your word for it?

You would tear me a new one if I tried to get away with a claim like that.

Which is why ICB remains one of my top Network suspects.

This is kind of funny to me. Human ICB acts very differently from Wolf ICB if you know what to look for. I see his recent behavior as very clearly human ICB. He said at one point that you could read him really well, so I'm wondering what you're seeing that I'm not seeing.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 27 Apr 2014, 11:26:06

Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:To answer Ozy from earlier, I do not have a vote manipulation/game cancelling power; I am the wrong tree to bark up.

What, we're just supposed to just take your word for it?

You would tear me a new one if I tried to get away with a claim like that.

Which is why ICB remains one of my top Network suspects.


Well, my word's all I have at the moment. I'm sorry it's not enough, but asking me to prove I'm NOT the manipulator is kinda loopy. And you don't strike me as the loopy type.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Ozymandias » 27 Apr 2014, 11:38:40

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:To answer Ozy from earlier, I do not have a vote manipulation/game cancelling power; I am the wrong tree to bark up.

What, we're just supposed to just take your word for it?

You would tear me a new one if I tried to get away with a claim like that.

Which is why ICB remains one of my top Network suspects.


Well, my word's all I have at the moment. I'm sorry it's not enough, but asking me to prove I'm NOT the manipulator is kinda loopy. And you don't strike me as the loopy type.

I was just speculating as part of a long analysis-- you're the one who specifically claimed not to have particular powers.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 27 Apr 2014, 11:44:24

Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:To answer Ozy from earlier, I do not have a vote manipulation/game cancelling power; I am the wrong tree to bark up.

What, we're just supposed to just take your word for it?

You would tear me a new one if I tried to get away with a claim like that.

Which is why ICB remains one of my top Network suspects.


Well, my word's all I have at the moment. I'm sorry it's not enough, but asking me to prove I'm NOT the manipulator is kinda loopy. And you don't strike me as the loopy type.

I was just speculating as part of a long analysis-- you're the one who specifically claimed not to have particular powers.

I am just telling you that I don't have what you think I do, in the hopes that that bit of info can help us find some freaking network baddies.

I'm starting to wonder if we're all not looking at people we wouldn't normally look at -- the quiet ones, the ones that don't RP much... It seems unlikely, though.

I think I'm just frustrated.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Ozymandias » 27 Apr 2014, 11:46:33

Hellheart wrote:This is kind of funny to me. Human ICB acts very differently from Wolf ICB if you know what to look for. I see his recent behavior as very clearly human ICB. He said at one point that you could read him really well, so I'm wondering what you're seeing that I'm not seeing.

ICB has seemed very hesitant for most of the game-- he hasn't counter-attacked as much as he normally does, and he's usually waited until very late to vote.

In my experience, that often happens when a Wolf is trying to coordinate a response with other Wolves.

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 27 Apr 2014, 11:53:53

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:This is kind of funny to me. Human ICB acts very differently from Wolf ICB if you know what to look for. I see his recent behavior as very clearly human ICB. He said at one point that you could read him really well, so I'm wondering what you're seeing that I'm not seeing.

ICB has seemed very hesitant for most of the game-- he hasn't counter-attacked as much as he normally does, and he's usually waited until very late to vote.

In my experience, that often happens when a Wolf is trying to coordinate a response with other Wolves.


IRL: Mondays and Tuesdays I literally have minutes in the morning and minutes in the evening, and whatever I can manage from my phone inbetween. I coach soccer for 8YO girls on those days, right after work, and get home somewhere between 20 and 45 minutes before deadline.

The next two days (Wed and Thu) this week, I was in lynch trouble until the last hour. When I get in lynch trouble, I can only do 2 things: Be a snippy asshole, or shut up. I spent one day not talking, but realized that's generally a bad move for me, so I was a snippy asshole the next day. Just ask the twins.

Friday: I don't think I was available (aside from, again, phone posting) until the last 90 minutes of the day. Just circumstances.

This weekend: Yesterday my 8YO came down with an ear infection, and on the way home from the doctor (literally about 100 feet from my parking spot) my car's transmission shit the bed.

All throughout: We're house-hunting as well.

So while I've played, and frankly I think I've participated pretty well this game all things considered, it's been quit the busy time for our resident hero. Today's an easy day, I did my shopping before shit got busy. :)

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Re: Round 6: The Cross Hands

Postby Hellheart » 27 Apr 2014, 12:00:25

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:This is kind of funny to me. Human ICB acts very differently from Wolf ICB if you know what to look for. I see his recent behavior as very clearly human ICB. He said at one point that you could read him really well, so I'm wondering what you're seeing that I'm not seeing.

ICB has seemed very hesitant for most of the game-- he hasn't counter-attacked as much as he normally does, and he's usually waited until very late to vote.

In my experience, that often happens when a Wolf is trying to coordinate a response with other Wolves.

That's why I said the last couple of days. I agree that he was much less offensive than I'd expect from human-ICB. The only reason that doesn't bother me too much is I called him out for not talking much in the Draker game and he was human.

If he hadn't changed gears yesterday in particular, I think I'd be in complete agreement. He's also not replying with the faux-anger he had when under pressure as a wolf in the map game.


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