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Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:27:03
by Ozymandias
Smirker wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:Current vote tally

<Snip>
No vote recorded (1) : Antipater

You may want to amend that. I didn't vote for myself.

Fixed, sorry.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:29:21
by Hellheart
(quoted for new page visibility)

Hellheart wrote:
Hellheart wrote:I'm still inclined to think that Smirker is probably human. Yesterday Admetus tried to start off the day's voting with a case and vote for Smirker, and later on (soon before he was shot) he put the 5th vote on Smirker when dferrantino, who was in 2nd, was at 3 votes.


Ozy, I saw your response to the rest of my post but not the above. If wolf-Admetus pushed Smirker at the start of the day and then voted to push him ahead of human-dferrantino and human-Meta4, I'd think Smirker's humanity is pretty straightforward.

You could argue that Smirker was going to die either way and Admetus was trying for human cred, but this is Admetus. People were going to get suspicious and lynch Admetus either way; that buys him next to nothing.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:29:45
by Ozymandias
FurinMirado wrote:I had to get back home, check the rules and do some math on this one, but I think the GA would be protecting himself on Night 6.

Night 1 - protect someone else
Night 2 - conversion night, protect self
Night 3 - protect someone else
Night 4 - conversion night, can't protect self yet, protect someone else
Night 5 - protect someone else
Night 6 - conversion night, if not converted on Night 4 then protect self

So sphenodont could have been vulnerable if the GA followed this pattern. Though, having now typed this out, I'm not sure how likely that might be. We're not exactly known for making optimal plays.

I think there's a good chance that's exactly what the GA did-- it's certainly what I would have done.

But it's probably not more than, say, 50% likely that the GA protected himself last night.

And I don't think the Network would accept such a high risk of failure on an obvious conversion target like post-vig spheno.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:30:28
by Ozymandias
Current vote tally

Iron Clad Burrito : 3 : Rictus, stigmata, Blind
MaxFrost : 3 : Hellheart, Smirker, ICB
Blindsniper83 : 2 : MaxFrost, RaveBomb, Visigoth, ICB
Smirker : 2 : Ozymandias, Zark
San : 1 : sphenodont
sphenodont : 1 : FurinMirado
Visigoth : 1 : San
RaveBomb : 1 : Maxfrost

No vote recorded (1) : Antipater

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:31:07
by Blindsniper83
Max Frost, you say you're Frosty, yet you're drinking warm beer


also im playing with reasoning, i have my lists of indexes infront of me.......


wait


theres blue goo on it, now i gotta start fresh

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:33:07
by 7-zark-7
((Hellheart makes a point in light of the vote stacking before Admetus did his dance of the sugar plum fairies and left this ink all over the place: viewtopic.php?f=74&t=530&start=50#p25939 ))

Consider me on Blindsniper then.

More in a bit,

7z7

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:35:32
by Ozymandias
Hellheart wrote:
Hellheart wrote:I'm still inclined to think that Smirker is probably human. Yesterday Admetus tried to start off the day's voting with a case and vote for Smirker, and later on (soon before he was shot) he put the 5th vote on Smirker when dferrantino, who was in 2nd, was at 3 votes.


Ozy, I saw your response to the rest of my post but not the above. If wolf-Admetus pushed Smirker at the start of the day and then voted to push him ahead of human-dferrantino and human-Meta4, I'd think Smirker's humanity is pretty straightforward.

You could argue that Smirker was going to die either way and Admetus was trying for human cred, but this is Admetus. People were going to get suspicious and lynch Admetus either way; that buys him next to nothing.

I disagree-- I think Wolf Admetus voting for and even pushing fellow Wolves is not uncommon.

And he had no particular reason to think he was in danger-- he hadn't been in very much lynch trouble all game.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:35:42
by MaxFrost
This is much better than 1 vote on 8 people :D

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:37:23
by Ozymandias
I think this is right:

MaxFrost : 4 : Hellheart, Smirker, ICB, blindsniper
Blindsniper83 : 3 : MaxFrost, RaveBomb, Visigoth, ICB, Zark
Iron Clad Burrito : 2 : Rictus, stigmata, Blind
Smirker : 1 : Ozymandias, Zark
San : 1 : sphenodont
sphenodont : 1 : FurinMirado
Visigoth : 1 : San
RaveBomb : 1 : Maxfrost

No vote recorded (1) : Antipater

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:38:45
by MaxFrost
And in the nature of self preservation (and keeping you all from wasting a lynch on another villager) I'm going to cast my vote instead on Redatcted, because I got the munchies.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:40:20
by sphenodont
Gog not know why people think he part of Network. Gog too much Luddite for robotniks and all. Also not one for conspiracies.

But granted, Gog might have made good target last night. Just doesn't want others to waste time when there are real Cabal folks about.

Gog still think Serena is suspect, but no one else is going to vote for her. Gog has mentioned to others that witch doctor might be good suspect, but will change to vote for Frosty (Gog retract again!) now. (Gog not afraid to get into thick of voting, which is what Network probably has been doing.)

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:40:24
by Iron Clad Burrito
MaxFrost wrote:And in the nature of self preservation (and keeping you all from wasting a lynch on another villager) I'm going to cast my vote instead on Iron Clad Burrito, because I got the munchies.


...putting me in a tie for second.

Well, that's something, I guess. Why not Sniper? It would have put you in the clear a tie with him, at least.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:40:52
by Hellheart
Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:
Hellheart wrote:I'm still inclined to think that Smirker is probably human. Yesterday Admetus tried to start off the day's voting with a case and vote for Smirker, and later on (soon before he was shot) he put the 5th vote on Smirker when dferrantino, who was in 2nd, was at 3 votes.


Ozy, I saw your response to the rest of my post but not the above. If wolf-Admetus pushed Smirker at the start of the day and then voted to push him ahead of human-dferrantino and human-Meta4, I'd think Smirker's humanity is pretty straightforward.

You could argue that Smirker was going to die either way and Admetus was trying for human cred, but this is Admetus. People were going to get suspicious and lynch Admetus either way; that buys him next to nothing.

I disagree-- I think Wolf Admetus voting for and even pushing fellow Wolves is not uncommon.

And he had no particular reason to think he was in danger-- he hasn't been in very much lynch trouble all game.

He'd been soft-pushed by analytical players throughout the game, and even I was starting to get nervous about him.

I think if we reveal another Networker, we'll have a better idea of whether it was just a wolf-on-wolf push. But Admetus' dead vote on Dferrantino on Day 5 followed by such a strong push on Smirker on Day 6 feels way too arbitrary for a wolf-on-wolf push since Smirker was obviously a leading candidate throughout Day 5. He should've been doing that since the start of Day 5, not suddenly started on Day 6.

Any cred he gains from killing Smirker would be countered by the simple fact that he was on a Singleton on Day 5. That looks too damning to ignore if Smirker is a Networker.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:41:57
by MaxFrost
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
MaxFrost wrote:And in the nature of self preservation (and keeping you all from wasting a lynch on another villager) I'm going to cast my vote instead on Iron Clad Burrito, because I got the munchies.


...putting me in a tie for second.

Well, that's something, I guess. Why not Sniper? It would have put you in the clear a tie with him, at least.


Because I don't think he's network.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:42:22
by Iron Clad Burrito
MaxFrost wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
MaxFrost wrote:And in the nature of self preservation (and keeping you all from wasting a lynch on another villager) I'm going to cast my vote instead on Iron Clad Burrito, because I got the munchies.


...putting me in a tie for second.

Well, that's something, I guess. Why not Sniper? It would have put you in the clear a tie with him, at least.


Because I don't think he's network.


You don't think I am, either, you only feel it.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:42:51
by MaxFrost
Hellheart wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:
Hellheart wrote:I'm still inclined to think that Smirker is probably human. Yesterday Admetus tried to start off the day's voting with a case and vote for Smirker, and later on (soon before he was shot) he put the 5th vote on Smirker when dferrantino, who was in 2nd, was at 3 votes.


Ozy, I saw your response to the rest of my post but not the above. If wolf-Admetus pushed Smirker at the start of the day and then voted to push him ahead of human-dferrantino and human-Meta4, I'd think Smirker's humanity is pretty straightforward.

You could argue that Smirker was going to die either way and Admetus was trying for human cred, but this is Admetus. People were going to get suspicious and lynch Admetus either way; that buys him next to nothing.

I disagree-- I think Wolf Admetus voting for and even pushing fellow Wolves is not uncommon.

And he had no particular reason to think he was in danger-- he hasn't been in very much lynch trouble all game.

He'd been soft-pushed by analytical players throughout the game, and even I was starting to get nervous about him.

I think if we reveal another Networker, we'll have a better idea of whether it was just a wolf-on-wolf push. But Admetus' dead vote on Dferrantino on Day 5 followed by such a strong push on Smirker on Day 6 feels way too arbitrary for a wolf-on-wolf push since Smirker was obviously a leading candidate throughout Day 5. He should've been doing that since the start of Day 5, not suddenly started on Day 6.

Any cred he gains from killing Smirker would be countered by the simple fact that he was on a Singleton on Day 5. That looks too damning to ignore if Smirker is a Networker.


I'm probably going to get lynched. Bad news is I'm not network. Start thinking about some of the votes that happened today. I'm hoping I've giving you guys some rope to hang others with.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:43:19
by stigmata
Swapping to the Max Frost bandwagon. Thank god we finally have some direction.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:43:36
by Ozymandias
I'll switch to ICB

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:45:35
by Ozymandias
I think this is right:

MaxFrost : 6 : Hellheart, Smirker, ICB, blindsniper, spheno, stigmata
Blindsniper83 : 3 : MaxFrost, RaveBomb, Visigoth, ICB, Zark
Iron Clad Burrito : 3 : Rictus, stigmata, Blind, Maxfrost, Ozymandias
sphenodont : 1 : FurinMirado
Visigoth : 1 : San
Smirker : 0 : Ozymandias, Zark
San : 0 : sphenodont
RaveBomb : 0 : Maxfrost

No vote recorded (1) : Antipater

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:46:45
by stigmata
Ozymandias wrote:I'll switch to ICB

But... I just...

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:47:05
by PA System
Going with my gut here, because that has always worked so well...

Maxfrost

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:47:14
by Smirker
That is the tally as I see it too.

[e] or it was.. ah well.. lots of EOD activity, eh?

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:47:43
by MaxFrost
I really don't mind getting lynched. I've been in the dark all game, and haven't been able to make good reads.

Ya'll can enjoy your graffiti-less bathrooms.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:48:44
by MaxFrost
Smirker wrote:That is the tally as I see it too.

[e] or it was.. ah well.. lots of EOD activity, eh?


Smirker, the tally is MAXFROST DIES

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:49:16
by Hellheart
MaxFrost - 7 - Hellheart, Smirker, Blindsniper, ICB, Stigmata, sphenodont, Antipater
Blindsniper - 3 - Ravebomb, Visigoth, ICB, Zark
ICB - 3 - Rictus, Stigmata, Blindsniper, MaxFrost, Ozymandias
sphenodont - 1 - Furin
Visigoth - 1 - San
Smirker - 0 - Ozymandias, Zark
Ravebomb - 0 - MaxFrost

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:50:06
by Hellheart
Why the late Stigmata and Antipater votes for MaxFrost?

Blindsniper


MaxFrost - 6 - Hellheart, Smirker, Blindsniper, ICB, Stigmata, sphenodont, Antipater
Blindsniper - 4 - Ravebomb, Visigoth, ICB, Zark, Hellheart
ICB - 3 - Rictus, Stigmata, Blindsniper, MaxFrost, Ozymandias
sphenodont - 1 - Furin
Visigoth - 1 - San
Smirker - 0 - Ozymandias, Zark
Ravebomb - 0 - MaxFrost

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:51:34
by Smirker
MaxFrost wrote:
Smirker wrote:That is the tally as I see it too.

[e] or it was.. ah well.. lots of EOD activity, eh?


Smirker, the tally is MAXFROST DIES

So it seems atm. it'll take some big vote manips to change that. or more flurries of activity in the next 10 min.

You appealing to my emotion is only making me double-down; but your think rationale may have some merit. Also,l the level of activity here at the end has been interesting.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:51:37
by stigmata
Hellheart wrote:Why the late Stigmata and Antipater votes for MaxFrost?

Blindsniper


Why the late Smirker --> ICB switch from Ozy? From one worthless vote to another, but played like a snipe.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:52:22
by 7-zark-7
Hellheart wrote:Why the late Stigmata and Antipater votes for MaxFrost?

Blindsniper


Lots of EOD activity here... Necklessone, you got any idea what's going on there?

More in a bit,

7z7

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:52:54
by sphenodont
Gog will vote for blindsniper. Witch is up to something, Gog is sure (especially if tinker gnome is coming to her defense!).

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:52:57
by Hellheart
stigmata wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Why the late Stigmata and Antipater votes for MaxFrost?

Blindsniper


Why the late Smirker --> ICB switch from Ozy? From one worthless vote to another, but played like a snipe.

ICB suddenly became a worthless vote. I think he could've been a contender. It's consistent with his reasoning - he was pushing ICB yesterday.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:53:33
by stigmata
Hellheart wrote:
stigmata wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Why the late Stigmata and Antipater votes for MaxFrost?

Blindsniper


Why the late Smirker --> ICB switch from Ozy? From one worthless vote to another, but played like a snipe.

ICB suddenly became a worthless vote. I think he could've been a contender. It's consistent with his reasoning.


He needed two more to even tie.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:53:55
by Ozymandias
stigmata wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Why the late Stigmata and Antipater votes for MaxFrost?

Blindsniper


Why the late Smirker --> ICB switch from Ozy? From one worthless vote to another, but played like a snipe.

I didn't see your vote switch when I voted (note the mere 17-second difference).

But even if I had, I still would have switched because of possible vote-altering powers.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:54:08
by MaxFrost
Changing targets once again! BlindSniper83 I might actually live O_o

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:54:37
by Smirker
Yea, I'm going to go ahead and see if we are actually seeing a lot of defense for Blindsniper83 or ICB.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:55:05
by Ozymandias
I have:

Blindsniper - 7 - Ravebomb, Visigoth, ICB, Zark, Hellheart, sphenodont, MaxFrost, Smirker
MaxFrost - 4 - Hellheart, Smirker, Blindsniper, ICB, Stigmata, sphenodont, Antipater
ICB - 2 - Rictus, Stigmata, Blindsniper, MaxFrost, Ozymandias
sphenodont - 1 - Furin
Visigoth - 1 - San
Smirker - 0 - Ozymandias, Zark
Ravebomb - 0 - MaxFrost[/quote]

Is that right?

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:56:14
by Hellheart
Oh wow, I didn't even see how late it was. I expect a late Ozy re-switch anyway.

Blindsniper - 6 - Ravebomb, Visigoth, ICB, Zark, Hellheart, sphenodont, MaxFrost
MaxFrost - 5 - Hellheart, Smirker, Blindsniper, ICB, Stigmata, sphenodont, Antipater
ICB - 2 - Rictus, Stigmata, Blindsniper, MaxFrost, Ozymandias
sphenodont - 1 - Furin
Visigoth - 1 - San
Smirker - 0 - Ozymandias, Zark
Ravebomb - 0 - MaxFrost

Sorted mine first, ICB's at 2 for sure.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:57:02
by Blindsniper83
i love frostys fear of dying, seems like a networker tell to me

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:57:16
by Ozymandias
Hellheart wrote:Sorted mine first, ICB's at 2 for sure.

I fixed that, but Smirker switched to Blind.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:58:24
by Hellheart
Blindsniper - 7 - Ravebomb, Visigoth, ICB, Zark, Hellheart, sphenodont, MaxFrost, Smirker
MaxFrost - 4 - Hellheart, Smirker, Blindsniper, ICB, Stigmata, sphenodont, Antipater
ICB - 2 - Rictus, Stigmata, Blindsniper, MaxFrost, Ozymandias
sphenodont - 1 - Furin
Visigoth - 1 - San
Smirker - 0 - Ozymandias, Zark
Ravebomb - 0 - MaxFrost

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:58:44
by Hellheart
MaxFrost

Leaving it to Ozy for shits and giggles.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:58:55
by Rictus
at least there's plenty to look at for tomorrow. Who are they protecting?

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:59:13
by Smirker
gah too much change.. tempted to move back. but if nothing else the activity should help down the line

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:59:21
by Blindsniper83
aint me

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:59:56
by Blindsniper83
SAVE ME TOM CRUISE

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 17:59:57
by Ozymandias
I have:

Blindsniper - 6 - Ravebomb, Visigoth, ICB, Zark, Hellheart, sphenodont, MaxFrost, Smirker
MaxFrost - 5 - Hellheart, Smirker, Blindsniper, ICB, Stigmata, sphenodont, Antipater, Hellheart
ICB - 2 - Rictus, Stigmata, Blindsniper, MaxFrost, Ozymandias
sphenodont - 1 - Furin
Visigoth - 1 - San
Smirker - 0 - Ozymandias, Zark
Ravebomb - 0 - MaxFrost[/quote]

Is that right?

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 18:00:07
by MaxFrost
That's what I'm hoping for.

Sorry Blind, blame the crowd, I truly think you're innocent.

Re: Round 7: The Good Companions

Posted: 28 Apr 2014, 18:00:16
by necklessone
And that's a day.