Round 10: The Two Headed Dog

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Round 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby necklessone » 30 Apr 2014, 18:23:43

With no time left to spare you split up.

Iron Clad Burrito, Stigmata, and Rictus sprint off down the alley and are the first to arrive at the next stop on the Golden Mile - The Two Headed Dog. The rest arrive in one big back with awful news: San lingered a little bit too long and was captured by the giant robot. And judging by how hard it squeezed, you won't be meeting up with him again.

San - Slightly skinnier now
BUB (Big Ugly Bastard)
You are a master of surviving and looking out for yourself in tough situations. Any attempt to move or nullify your vote will fail. Any attempt to assign bonus votes to you will fail.


Image

The Two Headed dog is completely empty as the Blanks are out in the streets, still hunting for you. Apparently they haven't figured out that you're all dead set on completing the Golden Mile, robots or no. Gary jumps behind the bar and begins pulling pints while the rest of you try and barricade the door and windows in case you're detected. Eleven pints of Crowning glory are raised in a silent salute to those who have fallen in the most noble pursuit of getting fucked up.

But what's this? Suddenly the entire ground floor of the pub is illuminated in the blue light cast by the Blanks. You've been surrounded by the sneaky devils. Exiting through the street is out the of the question as your hastily erected barriers are no match for their freakishly strong punches. The stairs are your only hope, but someone is going to have to stay back to hold the bastards off.

WARNING: After today, there will be no more than 10 players left. As only two Network have died, if you do not lynch a Network player today the game could end with a Human loss after this conversion.

Today is a normal lynch day. Rictus, Iron Clad Burrito, and Stigmata may not be voted for and are immune to conversion tonight.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby necklessone » 30 Apr 2014, 18:24:12

San : 5 : FurinMirado, RaveBomb, Visigoth, Stigmata, sphenodont
Visigoth : 3 : Antipater, Iron Clad Burrito, Rictus
FurinMirado : 2 : Smirker, Hellheart
RaveBomb : 1 : San
Stigmata : 1 : 7-zark-7

[+] Votes
FurinMirado voted for San
San voted for RaveBomb
7-zark-7 voted for Stigmata
Rictus voted for RaveBomb (Retracted)
RaveBomb voted for Rictus (Retracted)
Antipater voted for Visigoth
RaveBomb voted for San
sphenodont voted for Visigoth (Retracted)
Iron Clad Burrito voted for Visigoth
Visigoth voted for San
Smirker voted for San (Retracted)
Stigmata voted for San
Hellheart voted for Stigmata (Retracted)
Rictus voted for FurinMirado (Retracted)
Hellheart voted for FurinMirado (Retracted)
Smirker voted for FurinMirado
Rictus voted for Visigoth
Hellheart voted for San (Retracted)
sphenodont voted for San
Hellheart voted for FurinMirado

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 18:26:09

Oh look, he was human! WHAT A FUCKING SURPRISE.

No, of COURSE the Network would railroad one of their own the day before must-lynch

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 18:30:35

Reveal time, since it's must-lynch. There is more than one Human Alliance (Meta4 was the head of the other), and this other one has definitely been compromised so this isn't news to the Network. The only question is when it was compromised, because ICB is a member and regardless of whether he's Network, once they knew he was in the HA they could push him to force us to vote other players ahead. They would've known who our biggest suspects were because we usually shared that with the forum, so if all our suspects were human then all they'd have to do is push ICB and watch the fucking fireworks.

Compromised players can subtly guide the discussion, nominate humans as suspects, potentially discourage us from pursuing other Network suspects, and let the Network know if any of them could be in danger from us so they could vote up a human suspect instead.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby stigmata » 30 Apr 2014, 18:36:27

Time to role-reveal?

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 18:36:42

Rictus, I'm almost certain you're human based on your behavior and the simple fact that I said to the HA that I was using you as a honeypot back on...I don't remember if it was Day 5 or Day 6, but early enough that the Network would've never converted you because they knew I'd eventually go after you.

I need your help here. I'd like Zark's contributions today too since think Zark is human as well, although I can't be quite as certain. I just can't figure this shit out on my own; I can't pick out wolves very well, especially when I'm under pressure.

------

We already know what your role is, Stigmata. No reason to role-reveal on a conversion day because any Networker with a suspicious role is going to lie about it.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby stigmata » 30 Apr 2014, 18:40:21

Edited. Heh.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 18:48:35

stigmata wrote:Well, at least to be clear about it:

I don't know anything about whether Blindsniper was compromised.

He may have been in the Meta4 forum, although I doubt it. None of the members of my forum have died.

Since, again, the Network would know this, our members as of yesterday were the following

Day 1: ICB
Night 1: Ravebomb
Night 3: Hellheart
Night 5: sphenodont
Night 7: Zark

Following the Twins logic, ICB can't be an original because that would probably auto-win for the Network. So if he's Network, he was converted at some point. Beyond that, all bets are off.

I haven't been converted, either because I basically tried to get myself killed on Days 6 and 8, and/or the Network already had one convert and I was freely sharing my thoughts/plans so converting me was pretty useless.

Although that should be obvious since I was the only person trying to save San from getting lynched, and I was THIS CLOSE to pulling it off.
Last edited by Hellheart on 30 Apr 2014, 18:53:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Smirker » 30 Apr 2014, 18:51:16

stigmata wrote:Time to role-reveal?

Please do. You have nothing to fear today (Lynch nor conversion) as you are one of the lucky ones; so please do Role reveal.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 18:54:11

Smirker wrote:
stigmata wrote:Time to role-reveal?

Please do. You have nothing to fear today (Lynch nor conversion) as you are one of the lucky ones; so please do Role reveal.

We already know what his role is. Blindsniper told us he was the last part of the Sammich. No role reveals today.

The safe ones SHOULD NOT reveal, because if we survive today then powerful roles are going to get mauled. This is a horrible idea.

If you have information that we haven't been privy to (from PM contact or other source) that could contribute to actually finding a GD wolf, on the other hand, that should be shared.
Last edited by Hellheart on 30 Apr 2014, 18:57:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Smirker » 30 Apr 2014, 18:55:21

Hellheart wrote:
Smirker wrote:
stigmata wrote:Time to role-reveal?

Please do. You have nothing to fear today (Lynch nor conversion) as you are one of the lucky ones; so please do Role reveal.

We already know what his role is. Blindsniper told us he was the last part of the Sammich.

Which is why I find it odd that he's still not said anything about that. *shrug* doesn't matter today anyway though; as he's immune.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Rictus » 30 Apr 2014, 18:57:13

Hellheart wrote:Oh look, he was human! WHAT A FUCKING SURPRISE.

No, of COURSE the Network would railroad one of their own the day before must-lynch

Now who's being abrasive and contentious?

Hellheart wrote:Reveal time, since it's must-lynch. There is more than one Human Alliance (Meta4 was the head of the other), and this other one has definitely been compromised so this isn't news to the Network. The only question is when it was compromised, because ICB is a member and regardless of whether he's Network, once they knew he was in the HA they could push him to force us to vote other players ahead. They would've known who our biggest suspects were because we usually shared that with the forum, so if all our suspects were human then all they'd have to do is push ICB and watch the fucking fireworks.

Compromised players can subtly guide the discussion, nominate humans as suspects, potentially discourage us from pursuing other Network suspects, and let the Network know if any of them could be in danger from us so they could vote up a human suspect instead.


Given that the Network knows who's in that forum, I suggest you start naming names.

I hope you're not surprised when I say that I still suspect you as a networker. But I'm willing to lynch you last, if we find better replicants.

I'm going to spend about 30-40mins reviewing stuff and I"ll put out my feelings on players.

Edit: Sigh. See this is why I hate the new lack of notifications.
Last edited by Rictus on 30 Apr 2014, 19:00:20, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 18:59:52

Rictus wrote:Given that the Network knows who's in that forum, I suggest you start naming names.

I already did, including when they were recruited. Read my post above.

Smirker wrote:Which is why I find it odd that he's still not said anything about that. *shrug* doesn't matter today anyway though; as he's immune.

He did. He edited it after I told him it was a bad idea. He's who we expect him to be.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby stigmata » 30 Apr 2014, 19:04:36

Hellheart wrote:
Smirker wrote:
stigmata wrote:Time to role-reveal?

Please do. You have nothing to fear today (Lynch nor conversion) as you are one of the lucky ones; so please do Role reveal.

We already know what his role is. Blindsniper told us he was the last part of the Sammich. No role reveals today.

The safe ones SHOULD NOT reveal, because if we survive today then powerful roles are going to get mauled. This is a horrible idea.

If you have information that we haven't been privy to (from PM contact or other source) that could contribute to actually finding a GD wolf, on the other hand, that should be shared.


Yeah, Ozy was right, I've been revealed for days.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 19:08:42

Keep in mind that when you look at voting patterns, ICB is naturally going to look hella suspicious because we all kept voting to save him. While he may be the convert, he doesn't need to be. It's about who the alternative wagons were, or perhaps who they weren't. We'd protect each other, but the Network wasn't interested in lynching us. They were interesting in getting us to lynch humans, so we'd take the heat and they'd stay out of the limelight.

I think Smirker was onto something when he talked about players that have been easy to bandwagon and players that have been hard to bandwagon. Players outside of the HA forums that were hard to bandwagon are more likely than average to be Network. Players that were very easy to bandwagon, at least prior to today, are less likely than average to be Network.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Rictus » 30 Apr 2014, 19:51:55

So in previous games this is (occasionally) where I end up obsessing over the votes and that (plus my healthy paranoia) ends up find a wolf or two. Well I've never played a conversion game, and this is hella tough.

Ravebomb: (not a vote, yet)
So looking at the double votes on Day 6:
There were 4 networkers. There was also the Stigmata/Blind marmalade sandwich, and the forum with ICB/Ravebomb/Hellheart/spheno.

When looking at the top 3 bandwagons, this jumps out at me:
Voted for both dferrantino and Meta4: Hellheart, IronCladBurrito, Visigoth, and Stigmata
Voted for both dferrantino and smirker: FurinMirado and sphenodont
Voted for both Meta4 and smirker: Rictus

My gut tells me the wolf forum cautioned against voting together on both votes. But the still want to guide the lynch. So I believe that FM and spheno can't be wolves together, and only 1 of HH, ICB, Visigoth, and Stigmata is a wolf.

Looking for the second wolf on dferrantino: It has to be Ravebomb. He voted for dferrantino and Blindsniper.

Note:
Wolf-Ozymandias was on Smirker and ICB.
Wolf-Admetus was vigged, but he had previously voted on FurinMirado and Smirker.

Looking back at Ravebomb's recent vote history:
Day5 only voter on Admetus.
Day6, soft defended by Admetus, and ICB, double voted as above
Day7 Maxfrost called him out as a wolf.
Day8 Rave votes for Blindsniper for the second day.
Day9 soft defended by Hellheart, pushed by Rictus, soft pushed by Hellheart and Furin


Ravebomb is one of my top 3 Replicant suspects.
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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 20:04:02

Who's the third suspect?

(I'm glad you settled on Ravebomb. I feel like there's a reasonable chance that Ravebomb is the convert and the Network was defending him after early votes yesterday. I'm just not sure why else San gets railroaded out of the blue like that, unless Meta4's forum was going to push San.)

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Rictus » 30 Apr 2014, 20:33:13

Iron Clad Burrito:
I originally thought ICB was a networker, then decided that ICB was human and Hellheart was just hiding behind him. Now I don't know. The revealing of a forum with ICB/Hellheart helps explain some of it.

I went through looking every day and was making a list of points for ICB but I ended up with a mess. I will mention that Ozy voted for ICB on day 7. ICB was in danger early in the day, but by the end he had bottomed out. So I don't know what to think about Ozy's vote for him.

Hellheart, did you detect a change in ICB on the other forum around day 7?
FurinMirado, could ICB have been converted on night 6?
I definitely feel like ICB has changed his tone from the earlier days.
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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Rictus » 30 Apr 2014, 20:37:08

Hellheart wrote:Who's the third suspect?

(I'm glad you settled on Ravebomb. I feel like there's a reasonable chance that Ravebomb is the convert and the Network was defending him after early votes yesterday. I'm just not sure why else San gets railroaded out of the blue like that, unless Meta4's forum was going to push San.)


My top 4 suspects at Round 8 were you, Ozy, Ravebomb, and FM.

Its late, more tomorrow.
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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 30 Apr 2014, 20:58:22

Hellheart just hit my top two.

He's going to have you focus on finding one wolf out of the 5 names listed, outing me and my shit in the process and making my network more useless. Meanwhile, there are 3 potential wolves in the other six players.

20% odds vs. 50-ish%.

On a must-lynch day.

I want to start the voting here, but I'm so damned mad, this is the guy who's been one of my biggest advocates, and he just snaps and does this to me without the benefit of thinking it through.

But no one else can reveal anything, oh no. Just Hellheart, revealing other people's powers.

My name is Reverend Green. I run... ran... a private network.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 21:36:32

Did you not read what I said? I'm not going to lynch within the alliance unless it's the consensus choice. The chance of us recruiting a second Networked player is too small to realistically consider. I agree that there are going to be 3 wolves outside of the alliance, because there's no reason to convert more than one player in the alliance and you'd only target a converted player by random chance.

However, it's worth speculating who within the alliance could be the convert, because we eventually need to make that lynch if we get everything else right. But only as a side-conversation, because I'm not going to take that chance. If I wanted to take that chance, I'd go balls-out and go after you, but I don't think that's going to end well for anyone.

I'll stress again that it's impossible to lynch somebody within the alliance because none of us are willing to do that. Whoever the Network wants to be lynched is going to get lynched instead. But it's to everyone's benefit for this to be out in the open so that our voting patterns make sense and they don't distort voting analysis.

I want Rictus' input, and to a lesser extent I want the input of players like Antipater who probably are going to have undistorted lines of thinking. But I'm not going to get that if I can't explain why I think you're human, and why I won't push Ravebomb despite my suspicions. All Rictus would've done is insisted on me or settled on you or Ravebomb, like he just did, because there's too many votes defending you and humans get lynched instead. That looks super wolfy even if it's not at all what's happening.
Last edited by Hellheart on 30 Apr 2014, 21:43:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 30 Apr 2014, 21:42:38

The part about having no reason to role reveal? Yes I did.

Good DAY, sir.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 21:48:49

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:The part about having no reason to role reveal? Yes I did.

Good DAY, sir.

shrugs I knew this was not going to be a truly popular decision. I would have never done this if we lynched a Networker yesterday.

I look at it another way: you all let me down. I asked for your votes on Stigmata and Furin, and either you weren't there or you disagreed with me but refused to voice it. I needed one of you to help me lynch someone other than San, and the only person who responded put the killing vote on San instead. I understand that people are busy, but on the day before must-lynch it was like synchronized absence and it really bothered me.

You're not the only person who feels betrayed.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 30 Apr 2014, 22:04:57

Hellheart wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:The part about having no reason to role reveal? Yes I did.

Good DAY, sir.

shrugs I knew this was not going to be a truly popular decision. I would have never done this if we lynched a Networker yesterday.

I look at it another way: you all let me down. I asked for your votes on Stigmata and Furin, and either you weren't there or you disagreed with me but refused to voice it. I needed one of you to help me lynch someone other than San, and the only person who responded put the killing vote on San instead. I understand that people are busy, but on the day before must-lynch it was like synchronized absence and it really bothered me.

You're not the only person who feels betrayed.


What do you think I owe you? I told you what I was doing in advance. I gave you full disclosure when I made my vote, my feelings about it, why I was doing what I was doing. The three of us were in agreement, pressure on rictus and visigoth and see where it went. I gave full disclosure that changing my vote was probably not going to be possible. I peek from the waiting room of the Nissan dealership to find that Sphen et. al. are killing my planned recruit, forcing me to make a suboptimal contingency recruiting decision in sheer panic, and then I get home to being outed.

How do you think I am supposed to feel right now? I'm a little perturbed, and you and sphen have become my top 2, because you actively sabotaged me.

[e] And just so EVERYONE knows, because god knows people have to know, I am going offline for the night. I MIGHT post in the morning. I WON'T post from the phone. You'll at least get a vote from me later, but I have to watch what I say because I just ran out of trust.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 22:46:43

...Did you not realize that this is not about you, except tangentially?

In any case, I don't want to clog up the thread with this. I am not going to vote someone inside the alliance, and neither is any other member of the alliance. I have absolutely nothing against discussions/speculation involving potential Networkers within this alliance, unless they start clogging up the thread. However, anyone trying to vote up a member of the alliance is going to automatically be treated as a wolf.

This is not about us. This is about who outside of our alliance MUST have known about our alliance when they voted, specifically looking at votes around and after Day 6 when Ozymandias must have suspected that you were part of a larger group. At least one such player exists.

---

This annoys me a bit. I wanted to see who, if anyone, would've actually voted for Ravebomb before I brought the hammer down. Perhaps it's better that the focus is restricted earlier rather than later, though.

And before anyone claims that we're actually the Network, the numbers are wrong. It doesn't work.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 23:01:01

Rictus wrote:I definitely feel like ICB has changed his tone from the earlier days.

To answer your question because I see no reason to stonewall you off your train of thought unless all of your suspects are within the alliance: ICB has had plenty of speculation and suspicion, but has kept it in-alliance instead of outing it publicly. The benefit of saying much of anything in public decreases as the alliance grows in size, so he's naturally going to publicly post a lot less substance over time.

If I combine his public posts and his private posts for any given day, I get the level of content I'd expect from an on-and-off busy human ICB. He's not the one to look at until there's one Networker left, and I think at that point he could easily be the most human of the lot.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 30 Apr 2014, 23:11:17

Antipater, although this all must be daunting as hell, I'd appreciate your contribution. Even if it's just a mess of random thoughts, sometimes you hit on something that you or we will end up running with.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby FurinMirado » 01 May 2014, 03:51:15

Same as before, I don't expect to be back before EOD. I'm pretty much going to be staring at Excel all day.

Hellheart I don't fault you for going after me in the late game. It's TWG tradition. But I do fault you for going after me late in the day when we don't have much time to discuss it. You leverage the fears of those up for lynch to get their votes moved to me and you work within your secret alliance to get some of their votes on me. You've made a good play of being an indecisive Human, for sure.

Consider also that the Network lost Admetus and Ozymandias, two good analytical players. They can post analysis that sounds good but leads to Humans. At the same time they devise plans and figure out the roles of other people on the Network board. I am sure the Network would want to refill their ranks with someone like that. Hellheart fits that space very well.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby PA System » 01 May 2014, 05:11:23

HH, I'm planning to put something together at lunch. Want to look at some old votes.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Rictus » 01 May 2014, 05:13:19

1. I knew there would be fireworks after last night. You guys didn't disappoint.

2. For a secret human network, you've done great at killing humans. I just can't tell if it's on purpose or not. If necklessone hadn't posted "no 3rd factions" I'd say you guys were the vampires with a separate win condition.


3. I'm taking a little from HH and a little from ICB. I think HH is right when he says to look at the people who were hard to bandwagon. And I think ICB has a point when he says we should look for the wolves outside his network.

For some reason the cellular network has gone to shit at work (storm related???)


I think I'd vote for stigmata if he wasn't immune.
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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Visigoth » 01 May 2014, 05:29:36

Hellheart wrote:In any case, I don't want to clog up the thread with this. I am not going to vote someone inside the alliance, and neither is any other member of the alliance. I have absolutely nothing against discussions/speculation involving potential Networkers within this alliance, unless they start clogging up the thread. However, anyone trying to vote up a member of the alliance is going to automatically be treated as a wolf.
Guess that's game then since between this voting block and the excluded list it only leaves: Antipater, FurinMirado, Smirker, and myself. I'm human so down to three picks. Smirker I'm actually still on the fence about even though Ozymandias went after him and was eventually done in by Smirker. FurinMirado might be my choice even though he's claimed the GA, but due to the limitation on it could have certainly been turned earlier in the game. Antipater is an unknown to me and probably will need to take a closer look to see if anything pops with him. So a 1 in 3 chance to get the Networker. Not bad odds, but certainly not a forgone conclusion.

Also thinking there is only one Network in your little alliance is not something you should be married to. Especially with what you just stated. If what you said is even partly true the Network would be stupid to not convert someone in that group tonight. Or since in past games if you have a firm conviction and believe someone to be human you'll badger and argue from here to high water against anyone that votes on that person so why wouldn't the Network convert more people in the alliance knowing they'd have you to be a vocal advocate for someone in that group. Honestly you being one of the converts makes a lot of sense to me but of course between the your alliance and the Network us outsiders don't have near the votes to bring against you.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby sphenodont » 01 May 2014, 06:18:53

I agree that there was no real reason to out the contents of ICB's network, and while I did vote to lynch San, it wasn't an attempt to screw up your plans, ICB. And I'm truly sorry about that. It was a last minute scramble based on what I felt was a human response from Visi, and I didn't think there was enough time to get anything happening on Stigmata.

Right now, we are twelve hours from being well and proper fucked, and I know I've probably had a large, large part in handing us over to the Network. I know someone has been playing us, but I really don't know who. It's easy to suspect HH, and he's a tempting herring, but I have another suspect in mind. And if Stigmata is off-limits, I'm going to have to vote for RaveBomb (retracted).


(Substitute "Gog" for "I" up there. Meh.)

Edit: No vote for now. Doing some digging.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby sphenodont » 01 May 2014, 06:22:22

I've spent a good chunk of time worrying that Hellheart was trying to mislead us with his power, but all along, Rave's been coy about his. I get keeping your cards close to your chest when you don't trust some of your companions, but you had ample time and opportunities to share more than breadcrumbs.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby sphenodont » 01 May 2014, 06:24:32

Ahem.

Gog state for the record that Gog is willing to squash stupid fluffy bunny. Gog also not mind taking bard's guitar and breaking it in his face.


(That would be Rave and Zark, my prime suspects at this moment.)

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby RaveBomb » 01 May 2014, 07:48:33

Vote for me ONLY if you want to hand this game to the Network.

I have sucked this game. Nobody is disputing this.

As I mentioned yesterday, my methodology involves listening to everyone, then discarding that and picking people on a whim.

I have a basic and unassuming self defensive vote reduction power, if you're going to kill me today, make sure you do it hard enough to make me stay down. It'll ruin vote analysis in future days, but that won't matter, since the game will end upon my death.

Right now I'm not sure if Hellheart and ICB are staging a fight for our benefit or not. There is the one game from the distant past where two wolves went off on each other HARD and as such ran the game.
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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby PA System » 01 May 2014, 11:18:06

So far my strategy has been this:

Keep a low profile and don't be obviously wrong because then people will think I'm networked. As I don't really know what I'm doing yet this has been especially true.

I'm operating on a few basic assumptions. 1. I only know with any certainty that I am human. 2. Everyone other human knows only that they are human with any certainty, 3. network knows who everyone is, 4. trying to determine what people are based on things they've said is pointless for me because I just get myself stuck in a loop, 5. that said a facade on the part of a network member may crack and I should look for mistakes, yet not rush to judgement if one appears, 6. that I should avoid tipping anyone too far considering (3).

That said I've been trying to sort of aiming to get rough probabilities of wolfishness and act on those, as there is nothing better to work off of. This is not very easy though - a look at the remaining combatants, and assessments thereof:

4 Network, 7 of us, and 11 total if I'm looking at it right, but I didn't yesterday because I am mentally challenged w/r/t numbers.

7-zark-7 - No idea - RP is both great and makes it hard for me to figure. Hasn't really done anything overly dramatic that I can recall. Votes seem to show no clear bias, if anything might be too timid, but I certainly would not go after zark now.
[Suspicion Index: 0]

Antipater - Myself - He has no idea what he is doing, and may have led to the death of a human two days ago. Being clueless and new could be an asset to the Network though, as no one would expect that, and with support from other wolves could probably be of use. He did not vote against either of the known Networked. Has not voted on any network targets.
[Suspicion Index: +1]

FurinMirado - Doubtful - Analytic, and was bringing attention to Ozy. Voted on Simple_simon when S-S was taken out, and dferrantino. Voted on Sphenodont not long after Spheno's vig shot on network (but long enough that Spheno could be turned by then). However, reasoning seems sound when Furin describes it. Role reveal seemed appropriate at the time as a human.
[Suspicion Index: +2]

Hellheart - Argued against role reveal, which I think would have been a Bad Idea. Has argued well but not voted on any Network targets. Quite coherent and reasoned, and gregarious, either a bad or good sign. Has voted on 6 of the eliminated humans... Which either indicates knowledge or very bad luck. I'm inclined to the latter for now though, but requires scrutiny.
[Suspicion Index: +3]

Iron Clad Burrito - Again not really any tells in what he says, is good at this, and talks the talk and doesn't seem to do anything fishy. Has voted on 3 people that died.
[Suspicion Index: 0]

RaveBomb - Voted on Admetus day 5. 4 votes in a lynch. Not much more for me to base anything on.
[Suspicion Index: 0]

Rictus - For me the RP alone would make for a desirable convert, but that would be a terrible way to play! Posts are serious and indicate good analysis.
[SI: 0]

OUT OF TIME - RUNNING TO WORK 2 WILL TRY TO UPDATE

Smirker - Vigged Networked Ozy
sphenodont - Vigged Networked Admetus
Stigmata - Voted on Admetus day 4
Visigoth

Ok, so I can't keep working on this and have to vote before I run to the subway.

For now I'm sticking to Visigoth if only because I don't think too many people will skew this way so if I don't get back I haven't screwed the pooch. If he does die I don't feel that it was necessarily an unsound choice though, I guess. According to my work above it should be Hellheart perhaps... Will mull it over.

Also someone look hard at anyone Ozy or Admetus mentions or attempts to save, was going to do that next. Their voting records too, although I assume all of you have done this already...

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 01 May 2014, 11:39:12

RaveBomb wrote:Vote for me ONLY if you want to hand this game to the Network.

I have sucked this game. Nobody is disputing this.

As I mentioned yesterday, my methodology involves listening to everyone, then discarding that and picking people on a whim.

I agree that voting for you is a bad idea, and would add a simple but very different reason: the players in the Alliance now outnumber the players not in the alliance (6 to 5). Trying to lynch an alliance member and cutting it along those lines is going to have the alliance mole snipe the human for the Network win. Unless we're lucky enough to push two wolves at once, which takes twice the work for no purpose.

Since I have to leave at something like 5:30, I'm going to go over my thought process and what lead to my making the decision to reveal, leading into the player I'm going to push today. If, as a group, you decide that there is a better target then by all means go that way because my one vote won't let the Network do shit. But we need to vote as a block of at least 7 (preferably closer to 9) on a non-Alliance player, otherwise we risk being sniped for the loss by Networkers.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 01 May 2014, 12:34:33

[+] Background - Network knows about our alliance on Day 7
So, I'm starting from the idea that the Network suspected that our group existed by Day 6, and knew for certain (along with probably pegging me, ICB, and Ravebomb as members) by the end of Day 7.

I think it's very likely that the Network already had converted somebody in the alliance by or on Night 6. But assumptions like that aren't good enough for a wolf case on Must Lynch, so I'll outline why the Network would know about our alliance even if we never had a mole at all.

This all revolves around the simple fact that Ozy was a Networker. There are two ways that Ozy would have figured out that our group existed. One is obvious if you look at the votes, and more obvious if you look at the vote timings: Ozy pushed ICB on Day 6 and Day 7, and both times the ICB wagon got traction until it became a contender. At that point, the other leading wagons get swamped with votes, and somebody else gets lynched. I was the only person who vocally defended ICB, but sphenodont voted to defend him both days, Ravebomb voted around him. and late on Day 7 I put a key 4th vote on Blindsniper to push him above ICB after a bunch of votes are dumped on MaxFrost.

I was wondering at the time why Ozy would push ICB so doggedly, but while I was compiling votes and coloring him in red it just hit me: either he already had a mole and was voting for ICB so we'd lynch humans for the Network, or he was testing his theory that ICB headed an alliance by pushing him and seeing who voted to defend him. Ozy had the entirety of Day 7 and most of Day 8 to figure all of this out in detail if the Network didn't have a mole.

Even that vote analysis isn't necessary. This post on Day 6 was probably all Ozy needed to know that ICB had PM powers at the very least, since Meta4's role was revealed on Day 7. I don't think anyone other than Ozy would have caught this because spheno shot Admetus less than 30 minutes after this post, because it's very subtle. But I'm sure Ozy had a big ol' chart of projected and speculated roles in the wolf forum, and there's a pretty damn good chance that he picked up on it even before sphenodont spelled it out with the words "human alliance."

Subject: Round 6: The Cross Hands

sphenodont wrote:
Meta4 wrote:I'm still suspicious of Ice Cold Burrito's questionable attack on the twinsies. He faulted them for self-preservation voting right after admitting to doing the same. Very fishy.

I don't have any strong leads for a second place vote, so I'll throw it at Smirker for now. Can't trust a man that is smirking all the time.


Gog think little one might want to hold her attack-doggie at bay for a little while and get to know Tortilla Man a little better. They have a lot more in common than they may realize.

Gog is more than okay with watching Zot get in ring, though. Grudge match with barbarian make Gog laugh!

So, starting point for Days 7 and 8 is that the Network either knew everything about us (from a mole), or Ozy figured out that ICB and sphenodont were part of an alliance on Day 6 and added me to that group because of how I was defending ICB and my vote to push Blindsniper above ICB on Day 7.

Early on Day 8, Ozy posts the following speculation concerning the Marmalade Sandwich:

Ozymandias wrote:
necklessone wrote:MaxFrost : 6 : Iron Clad Burrito, Blindsniper83, Stigmata, Antipater, Hellheart
Blindsniper83 : 5 : RaveBomb, Visigoth, 7-zark-7, sphenodont, MaxFrost, Smirker

So it looks like the marmalade sandwich has struck again!

And we now know that the third component must be ICB, stigmata, Antipater, or Hellheart.

He knows that ICB runs an alliance. He knows that I voted to push Blindsniper above ICB the previous day, so I make no sense as the other part. So Ozy makes this post knowing full well that Stigmata is the other half of the sandwich. Ozy at least suspects that ICB and I are both in the alliance, so he can assume that the alliance now knows that Smirker is the other part of the Sandwich.

Ozy may just be making this post for the hell of it, and IIRC ICB actually beat him to the punch in pegging Stigmata. But it's worth noting that this post was made.

Now here's where things get interesting. 2.5 hours after Rictus puts the 2nd vote on me to push me ahead of everyone else, Stigmata makes the following post:

stigmata wrote:^ Gunning for Hellheart. Drink up, man.

This does not move me up to 3 votes; this moves me up to potentially FIVE votes if Blindsniper follows because he's part of the Sandwich. At the time, the only suspect we were seriously floating in the alliance was Blindsniper, so our Alliance drops two votes on him to "tie it up." This is exactly what the Network wanted, because Blindsniper is human and our Alliance would once again be complicit in killing a human. Even when Zark's vote is moved off of me, the simple fact that I'm sitting on supposedly two votes but potentially four votes means that we're pretty much locked into Blindsniper.

A late attempt by Smirker and me to lynch Stigmata instead fizzles when Furin moves off of Blindsniper onto Stigmata. This puts them both at 4, which means a Blindsniper switch to me is going to force me to coinflip for survival. When nobody else moves their vote, Smirker votes for Blindsniper to make sure that doesn't happen.

You know what's interesting about Stigmata? It wasn't his final vote, but he made a similar early vote to push ICB up to the lead at 2 votes early on Day 7 as well:

stigmata wrote:
Rictus wrote:But I think I’m going to vote for Iron Clad Burrito. And if I'm right about ICB, the other networker is Hellheart.


The RaveBomb vote makes no sense, RaveBomb's own vote is equally silly, and nobody else in the thread seems to be doing much to justify anything at the moment. I'll go with Iron Clad Burrito for now. Maybe that'll give us some direction.

So this actually puts ICB up to 4 votes and -1 vote to Blindsniper if he follows Stigmata's lead, and the Alliance has no idea that this will happen. We were going to push Blindsniper on Day 7. I think this only becomes a 3-wagon race because Smirker pushes MaxFrost to 2 and then ICB successfully negotiates with Blindsniper to add two more votes to MaxFrost.

Stigmata eventually switches to MaxFrost because Blindsniper voted away from ICB and probably isn't voting back. I think if that doesn't happen and ICB remains a serious contender, the Network tries to kill ICB with a surprise +1/-1 Sandwich Ambush Vote.

Because REDACTED vote for Stigmata tomorrow is part of the Network, after two consecutive votes that placed key alliance members in danger.

stigmata wrote:I don't think anyone's demonstrated that I have a case to answer. People seem to understand that you need to act on those suspicions that have an actual foundation, especially when you only have a couple of days to go before annihilation.

Easy thing to say, since I can only make a case against you by doing what I just did: expose the alliance to everyone, trusting my instincts that the Network already knows about it and is counting on us to keep it private.
Last edited by Hellheart on 01 May 2014, 13:32:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby RaveBomb » 01 May 2014, 12:50:58

tl;dr

redacted was bolded though, so that might be an important bit. (was Stigmata, incorrectly)
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If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby necklessone » 01 May 2014, 12:59:00

Rictus, Iron Clad Burrito, and Stigmata may not be voted for and are immune to conversion tonight.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Smirker » 01 May 2014, 13:01:16

Checking from phone .

What is this asshattery?

Aren't Stigmata, ICB and Rictus immune to lynch and conversion as their reward
[e]: as I thiught

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby RaveBomb » 01 May 2014, 13:10:15

necklessone wrote:Rictus, Iron Clad Burrito, and Stigmata may not be voted for and are immune to conversion tonight.


tl;dr I blame Hellheart

(Edit: also Stigmata isn't sphenodont.... :P :P )
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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 01 May 2014, 13:32:11

Oh GD. How did I miss that? That is so not fair (thought it was ICB, Rictus, and Smirker for whatever reason)

I need ANOTHER suspect?

Well, if Stigmata is a wolf then I can move from there to who outside the Alliance may have been protecting or assisting him.

-----

I have a feeling that Stigmata's immunity here wasn't quite arranged since there's only 4 Networkers, but that no other Networker picked the same option since he was obviously the most exposed of them all. I already knew that Rictus was human and ICB's the most human person in the Alliance besides Zark (who was pushing for Stigmata yesterday).

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 01 May 2014, 14:06:43

So the way I see it, since Smirker is protected there are two major non-Alliance candidates today: Visigoth, and FurinMirado. Both were part of the San railroad, both stubbornly stayed on San. Votes on Visigoth may have led to the San railroad, but Furin's had more suspicion in general.

Furin has to be the GA because he hasn't been counter-claimed. But as Smirker said yesterday, that doesn't mean he's human. If the Network targeted him at all before Day 8 and was blocked, they'd just convert him 2 days later. They also could have just outright nailed him on Day 8 if he didn't protect himself. If we don't lynch Furin today, and he blocks a maul (remember, they can't no-maul), then I'd consider him a human until we're down to the last Networker. If the wolves don't miss a maul, we need to lynch 5 consecutive wolves.

Furin comes on at EOD, says he thinks Visi is human, and refuses to move from San.


Given the information below, I'm going to remove Furin from suspicion for today.

-----------

Visigoth is an interesting case. So we all know that San was railroaded yesterday, but as I said before, San came out of the blue. Ravebomb is one possible reason this happened. Visigoth is another, and probably the more likely reason since San's votes shoot up right after he gets a 3rd vote.

After Visigoth gets pushed to 3 votes by sphenodont and ICB, San gets 3 consecutives votes in a 15-minute period from: Visigoth, Smirker, and Stigmata. This could possibly be from 3 wolves but that would be pretty insane, but wolf votes surrounding a human vote is more sensible and Smirker moves his vote off eventually. Visigoth claims to be voting San in defense when he votes, and he's around at EOD but shows no interest in moving his vote (only in implicating me should he be lynched). Rictus' late vote for Visigoth is the only reason he's put in danger, and I had to work for that vote.

----------

I think both could be wolves, but I think the San railroad was to protect RETRACTED was Visigoth. Not to mention that he's claimed a role that is redundant with the GA and completely impossible to verify.

HAVING SAID THAT, if the San railroad was a Meta4 alliance move and they're far more certain that Visigoth is human, then FurinMirado may be the better candidate.
Last edited by Hellheart on 01 May 2014, 14:21:04, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby sphenodont » 01 May 2014, 14:07:47

Gog not have watch, but think there are four hours left in day. Party is still spinning wheels and yelling at each other, which is crazy, because Pooky hasn't even bit anyone yet!

Gog will vote for 7-Zark-7. There are cases to be made for everyone, but in no situation can Gog see power-blocking the GA as a human move.

Especially on the last conversion day of the game.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 01 May 2014, 14:09:26

sphenodont wrote:Gog not have watch, but think there are four hours left in day. Party is still spinning wheels and yelling at each other, which is crazy, because Pooky hasn't even bit anyone yet!

Gog will vote for 7-Zark-7. There are cases to be made for everyone, but in no situation can Gog see power-blocking the GA as a human move.

Especially on the last conversion day of the game.

I knew you were asking about that for a reason!

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 01 May 2014, 14:19:01

Alright, so if anybody wants to present better candidates they can, but I am not even going to pretend that blocking the potential GA makes any sense at all - and I had re-iterated in the Alliance that I thought he might be the GA.

Visigoth or Zark it is. And given the way I think the votes are going to go, and since Antipater is already on Visigoth, I'll dead-vote for RETRACTED was Smirker and make sure I'm not the killing vote on the wrong guy because I'm not here (leaving at 6:30, Saturday is something like 5:30, not that I expect to be alive at that point).

Hopefully enough discussion will happen that I can vote my conscience, but quite frankly unless Visigoth is also in Meta4's Network, we could easily be bandwagoning two wolves here.
Last edited by Hellheart on 01 May 2014, 15:29:29, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Smirker » 01 May 2014, 14:19:47

Hellheart wrote:
sphenodont wrote:Gog not have watch, but think there are four hours left in day. Party is still spinning wheels and yelling at each other, which is crazy, because Pooky hasn't even bit anyone yet!

Gog will vote for 7-Zark-7. There are cases to be made for everyone, but in no situation can Gog see power-blocking the GA as a human move.

Especially on the last conversion day of the game.

I knew you were asking about that for a reason!

Technically, I was the one asking. And I feel I've given more than enough time to respond to it as I'm reasonably sure he saw my queries.

7-zark-7

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Hellheart » 01 May 2014, 14:31:39

Visigoth wrote:Also thinking there is only one Network in your little alliance is not something you should be married to.

So, I'll make human cases for the people that I think are human or are certain are human right now.

Rictus is human because the day before must-lynch, I ask him to be more reasonable and cooperate. Assuming that there was a mole in the Alliance, I stated there that I may push him based on his response. Instead he just outright leaves, and is stubborn as hell when he gets back. That close to must-lynch, Network Rictus would at least pay lip service to my offer to make sure I don't try to lynch him. Human Rictus tries to get me to lynch him so he can flip human, then I'll get lynched as a wolf because human Rictus is convinced that I'm a wolf.

Smirker is human as long as Furin protected him on Day 8. They would know, unless Furin is a Networker and pretended to pro...you know what, that's a really dumb argument to make. Even I'm not that paranoid with 4 wolves left. I don't want this actually outed, because if both are human then the Network has to guess which one was protected on Day 8. This amuses me too much to ruin.

I'm human because if I were Network, all I would have done yesterday is voted for Stigmata, paid lip service to my idea that San is human, and then pushed Rictus today. Why would I go through all this effort when we needed to lynch 5 wolves in 6 lynches to avoid a loss?

-------

The humanity of Day 9 Alliance players, for me, now goes: Hellheart, sphenodont, ICB, Ravebomb, Zark. Despite his presence in the center, I strongly think ICB was human going into Day 8 and I can't see why he'd be the conversion target on Day 8 unless it was catalyzed by Ozy's death.

I thought Zark was human because he wanted to push Stigmata yesterday. But Stigmata only got one vote out of that, so I can see where I was totally off base there. I still think Stigmata is a likely Networker, since human cred anywhere is going to make a difference when the wolves just need one more mislynch. But we can look at that tomorrow.
Last edited by Hellheart on 01 May 2014, 14:39:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 10: The Two Headed Dog

Postby Smirker » 01 May 2014, 14:33:49

As it's been mentioned; this is basically zero hour people.

Time to put your cards out.

For those not on the special msg boards - yes... I am. Futon was included in one of them last night and after a resonable bit of time claimed he was power blocked. I was curious why HH didn't out me as being on the good reverends board earlier; but gauging from several of his posts. It seems less likely to conceal me as much as to use me to draw more suspicion.

I put the question to zark in the other board if he'd used his power.... But he stopped talking.

Frankly, with HellHeart acting like a damn chihuahua ATM and taken how emotionally he responded to my question to zark (HH acted like I was about to try and kill him off) - I find them both wolfy as all hell. I'll chime in more later, but need to leave work soon


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