- [+] Background - Network knows about our alliance on Day 7
- So, I'm starting from the idea that the Network suspected that our group existed by Day 6, and knew for certain (along with probably pegging me, ICB, and Ravebomb as members) by the end of Day 7.
I think it's very likely that the Network already had converted somebody in the alliance by or on Night 6. But assumptions like that aren't good enough for a wolf case on Must Lynch, so I'll outline why the Network would know about our alliance even if we never had a mole at all.
This all revolves around the simple fact that Ozy was a Networker. There are two ways that Ozy would have figured out that our group existed. One is obvious if you look at the votes, and more obvious if you look at the vote timings: Ozy pushed ICB on Day 6 and Day 7, and both times the ICB wagon got traction until it became a contender. At that point, the other leading wagons get swamped with votes, and somebody else gets lynched. I was the only person who vocally defended ICB, but sphenodont voted to defend him both days, Ravebomb voted around him. and late on Day 7 I put a key 4th vote on Blindsniper to push him above ICB after a bunch of votes are dumped on MaxFrost.
I was wondering at the time why Ozy would push ICB so doggedly, but while I was compiling votes and coloring him in red it just hit me: either he already had a mole and was voting for ICB so we'd lynch humans for the Network, or he was testing his theory that ICB headed an alliance by pushing him and seeing who voted to defend him. Ozy had the entirety of Day 7 and most of Day 8 to figure all of this out in detail if the Network didn't have a mole.
Even that vote analysis isn't necessary. This post on Day 6 was probably all Ozy needed to know that ICB had PM powers at the very least, since Meta4's role was revealed on Day 7. I don't think anyone other than Ozy would have caught this because spheno shot Admetus less than 30 minutes after this post, because it's very subtle. But I'm sure Ozy had a big ol' chart of projected and speculated roles in the wolf forum, and there's a pretty damn good chance that he picked up on it even before sphenodont spelled it out with the words "human alliance."
Subject: Round 6: The Cross Hands
Meta4 wrote:I'm still suspicious of Ice Cold Burrito's questionable attack on the twinsies. He faulted them for self-preservation voting right after admitting to doing the same. Very fishy.
I don't have any strong leads for a second place vote, so I'll throw it at Smirker for now. Can't trust a man that is smirking all the time.
Gog think little one might want to hold her attack-doggie at bay for a little while and get to know Tortilla Man a little better. They have a lot more in common than they may realize.
Gog is more than okay with watching Zot get in ring, though. Grudge match with barbarian make Gog laugh!
So, starting point for Days 7 and 8 is that the Network either knew everything about us (from a mole), or Ozy figured out that ICB and sphenodont were part of an alliance on Day 6 and added me to that group because of how I was defending ICB and my vote to push Blindsniper above ICB on Day 7.
Early on Day 8, Ozy posts the following speculation concerning the Marmalade Sandwich:
necklessone wrote:MaxFrost : 6 : Iron Clad Burrito, Blindsniper83, Stigmata, Antipater, Hellheart
Blindsniper83 : 5 : RaveBomb, Visigoth, 7-zark-7, sphenodont, MaxFrost, Smirker
So it looks like the marmalade sandwich has struck again!
And we now know that the third component must be ICB, stigmata, Antipater
, or Hellheart.
He knows that ICB runs an alliance. He knows that I voted to push Blindsniper above ICB the previous day, so I make no sense as the other part. So Ozy makes this post knowing full well that Stigmata is the other half of the sandwich. Ozy at least suspects that ICB and I are both in the alliance, so he can assume that the alliance now knows that Smirker is the other part of the Sandwich.
Ozy may just be making this post for the hell of it, and IIRC ICB actually beat him to the punch in pegging Stigmata. But it's worth noting that this post was made.
Now here's where things get interesting. 2.5 hours after Rictus puts the 2nd vote on me to push me ahead of everyone else, Stigmata makes the following post:
stigmata wrote:^ Gunning for Hellheart. Drink up, man.
This does not move me up to 3 votes; this moves me up to potentially FIVE votes if Blindsniper follows because he's part of the Sandwich. At the time, the only suspect we were seriously floating in the alliance was Blindsniper, so our Alliance drops two votes on him to "tie it up." This is exactly what the Network wanted, because Blindsniper is human and our Alliance would once again be complicit in killing a human. Even when Zark's vote is moved off of me, the simple fact that I'm sitting on supposedly two votes but potentially four votes means that we're pretty much locked into Blindsniper.
A late attempt by Smirker and me to lynch Stigmata instead fizzles when Furin moves off of Blindsniper onto Stigmata. This puts them both at 4, which means a Blindsniper switch to me is going to force me to coinflip for survival. When nobody else moves their vote, Smirker votes for Blindsniper to make sure that doesn't happen.
You know what's interesting about Stigmata? It wasn't his final vote, but he made a similar early vote to push ICB up to the lead at 2 votes early on Day 7 as well:
Rictus wrote:But I think I’m going to vote for Iron Clad Burrito. And if I'm right about ICB, the other networker is Hellheart.
The RaveBomb vote makes no sense, RaveBomb's own vote is equally silly, and nobody else in the thread seems to be doing much to justify anything at the moment. I'll go with Iron Clad Burrito
for now. Maybe that'll give us some direction.
So this actually puts ICB up to 4 votes and -1 vote to Blindsniper if he follows Stigmata's lead, and the Alliance has no idea that this will happen. We were going to push Blindsniper on Day 7. I think this only becomes a 3-wagon race because Smirker pushes MaxFrost to 2 and then ICB successfully negotiates with Blindsniper to add two more votes to MaxFrost.
Stigmata eventually switches to MaxFrost because Blindsniper voted away from ICB and probably isn't voting back. I think if that doesn't happen and ICB remains a serious contender, the Network tries to kill ICB with a surprise +1/-1 Sandwich Ambush Vote.
Because REDACTED vote for Stigmata tomorrow
is part of the Network, after two consecutive votes that placed key alliance members in danger.
stigmata wrote:I don't think anyone's demonstrated that I have a case to answer. People seem to understand that you need to act on those suspicions that have an actual foundation, especially when you only have a couple of days to go before annihilation.
Easy thing to say, since I can only make a case against you by doing what I just did: expose the alliance to everyone, trusting my instincts that the Network already knows about it and is counting on us to keep it private.