A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 01 May 2014, 13:03:20

You might need to make that warning bigger, neckless. Maybe add some blink tags to it too?
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby necklessone » 01 May 2014, 13:07:07

Damn it, both blink and marquee don't seem to be enabled. We'll have to have Omega "fix" that when he can.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Admetus » 01 May 2014, 13:19:01

Huh, I was sure there was a marquee. I guess that was the last board.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 01 May 2014, 13:39:15

HH wrote:I already knew that Rictus was human and ICB's the most human person in the Alliance besides Zark (who was pushing for Stigmata yesterday).

Sigh.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby That PJ » 01 May 2014, 13:56:12

DastardlyOldMan wrote:
HH wrote:I already knew that Rictus was human and ICB's the most human person in the Alliance besides Zark (who was pushing for Stigmata yesterday).

Sigh.

ICB should be proud of that statement.
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Admetus » 01 May 2014, 14:04:32

Good point, PJ. He's done a really good job being a lone wolf in sheep's clothing for a really long time in a closed arena.

Yeah, Hellheart's wrong here, but we've all had our blind spots in the past. I prefer to look at this as a heroic effort by ICB on a limited time budget.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 01 May 2014, 14:19:47

I have a rule tweak to suggest.

If I were Human, I imagine I would be bitching pretty mightily right now about the difficulty of doing voting analysis when you don't know when players were converted.

So starting tomorrow, I think you should reveal when dead players joined the Network-- starting with Admetus and I.

If you agree, then I would mention this to Furin and ICB today, since it could affect whether they recruit Smirker tonight.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby rekard » 01 May 2014, 14:35:43

Once the mauls start, I predict Furin dying by lynch on day 12 or 13.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby rekard » 01 May 2014, 14:40:16

I find it funny when people say : " If I were a wolf I would have done this and that." There is no difference between a human and a wolf saying that. It's like an empty defense argument.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 01 May 2014, 14:43:42

rekard wrote:Once the mauls start, I predict Furin dying by lynch on day 12 or 13.

First question the Humans will need to answer tomorrow is: would the Network risk converting Furin on Night 10?

If they decide no, then Furin being power-blocked last night is actually a huge benefit, because it allows him to claim he was protecting himself on Night 11.

So if he survives Day 11, he should be able to survive Day 12.

Of course, astute Humans will realize when the game hasn't ended that the Wolves must have missed a conversion, which increases the likelihood of Furin being part of the Network. But Visigoth's role complicates that argument.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Admetus » 01 May 2014, 14:48:54

Subject: What the?

Smirker wrote:I think HH has been one all along. Seems like too many mistakes from him . Must be hard to be so active on so many boards... Regardless, either furin is lying; but with Zarks lack of response - and he was online for a while after I asked. I'm disinclined to believe him

Ouch. This is why I can't understand why you guys (Ozy and Zark) don't hide your online status. Yes, it's a mistake to make this kind of metagame argument. But you can put the blame for his mistake on him, or you can just flip the switch so nobody can make that mistake at all.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 01 May 2014, 14:53:13

Admetus wrote:Good point, PJ. He's done a really good job being a lone wolf in sheep's clothing for a really long time in a closed arena.

Yeah, Hellheart's wrong here, but we've all had our blind spots in the past. I prefer to look at this as a heroic effort by ICB on a limited time budget.


ICB's been playing pretty phenomenally, all things considered (particularly with his time constraints). I thought for sure he was eventually going to bite it when people started getting suspicious about his Day Four actions against us, but he's rallied his private forum to his defense beautifully and (so far) without making it obvious that he's behind it. The tugging on Hellheart's guilt-strings he's been doing over the reveal of his power has been perfect.
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby rekard » 01 May 2014, 15:22:17

I don't know. For someone that can be so paranoid like ICB, his niceness in the first few days is just a bad mistake. Though it helps him that it's likelier to think that the extra board was made to fight the conversion and think the owner is implicitly human.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Admetus » 01 May 2014, 15:44:06

I really think I'd have to argue that Zark couldn't have known about FurinMirado when he blocked him. I'm actually surprised nobody has done that yet.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby That PJ » 01 May 2014, 16:00:53

Hellheart wrote:Following the Twins logic, ICB can't be an original because that would probably auto-win for the Network. So if he's Network, he was converted at some point. Beyond that, all bets are off.

What logic was that? The logic of people (including us) actively speculating about whether or not one of us was an original Network?

It must be amusing as hell as a GM when players leap to radical conclusions like "Nobody would let a Network player start with a power granting him his own forum!" Because it's imbalanced? It's only imbalanced when you make the assumption that said individual cannot possibly be Network and ride that belief to your grave. Certainly no auto-win.

Honestly, it's almost painful to watch him be so sure that ICB is human.

Edited to add:
sphenodont wrote:Zark's been claiming the work angle all week (even before the game started, I think), but he's the only one who's even hinted at a role blocker.

If Furin is playing us, he'd have to know there was a role blocker, and I don't think there was any hint of that being one of the powers at play.

!!! Okaros was role-blocked on Day 3. Come on, man.
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Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 01 May 2014, 17:01:24

That PJ wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Following the Twins logic, ICB can't be an original because that would probably auto-win for the Network. So if he's Network, he was converted at some point. Beyond that, all bets are off.

What logic was that? The logic of people (including us) actively speculating about whether or not one of us was an original Network?


I *think* he's trying to say that, yeah, but that's a really silly conclusion to leap to. A PM power is nowhere near the scale of having the original two Networkers be linked together as Lovers, and is honestly one of the more "balanced" powers for the Network to start with I think (since it depends so heavily on the manipulative skill of the player with the power). Just another reminder that jumping to conclusions based purely on meta-game assumptions is... dangerous (there's a reason that I was still mildly nervous about you being Network, PJ, despite my protestations otherwise in the Day Thread ;) ).
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 01 May 2014, 17:35:42

16 Users!

Just need 2 more to tie board record!

Texting Omega ...

EDIT: 18! Tied record.

EDIT2: And there it is! 20!! Sweet!!!

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 01 May 2014, 17:39:53

Things look a bit grim for the humans at the moment. My count is:

7-zark-7 : 6 : sphenodont, Smirker, Iron Clad Burrito, Hellheart, Stigmata, Rictus
Hellheart : 3 : FurinMirado, RaveBomb, Visigoth
Visigoth : 1 : Antipater

with Zark the only one currently not-voting.
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby rekard » 01 May 2014, 17:48:21

Ironic.

He actually got the target right. I think that thought is toonartificial for this type of game. Being the GA doesn't make you automatically safe. But that's how it goes.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 01 May 2014, 17:49:30

So I've been looking at the endgame scenarios, and the balance seems a bit tilted against the Humans.

The score tomorrow looks like it will be 7 Humans - 3 Network. Not counting vigs or special events, the Humans will need to get 3 of the next 4 lynches right to win. Does that seem fair?

I realize that they're 0-11 on lynches (ouch), but they are 2 out of 4 on Vig shots, which is pretty good. And the Network has missed 2 conversions, so it's not like we've played impeccably.

So I'm wondering if the Network should only be able to maul every other night? (Starting on Night 12***)

That would give the Humans 2 missed lynches, which feels like it would better reflect how the game has been played.

***Note that making the maul every other night might keep Furin in the game longer, since he could plausibly claim to be protecting himself Night 12, and wouldn't have to prove himself again until Night 14-- as opposed to Night 12 at current rate (then again game's likely to be over by Night 12 under current rules if Furin's still alive).

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 01 May 2014, 17:53:51

sphenodont wrote:
necklessone wrote:As only two Network have died, if you do not lynch a Network player today the game could end with a Human loss after this conversion.

Gog misread this earlier. Saucy wench was only speaking of potential, which means it is possible that GA blocked some conversions. Maybe not likely, but possible.

Gog not so dumb after all!
Last edited by Ozymandias on 01 May 2014, 17:54:50, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 01 May 2014, 17:54:45

Bonus points to spheno for catching the GM's careful wording!! 8-)
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 01 May 2014, 18:00:34

rekard wrote:Ironic.

He actually got the target right. I think that thought is toonartificial for this type of game. Being the GA doesn't make you automatically safe. But that's how it goes.

Except that if Furin's already in the Network then blocking his GA ability is pointless because he won't use it.

So it really wasn't a good play, because it only hurts the GA if he's Human.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby MaxFrost » 01 May 2014, 18:16:49

hah, Smirker is EVERYWHERE.

He nearly has perfect information. Unless someone picks up on his conversion, there's no way humans are going to win.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 01 May 2014, 18:27:36

Um, is that a typo Neckless? Shouldn't it be that there are 1 and *5* members in the game, not 4? Only two Networkers are dead, 2 original + 5 converts = 7 - 2 = 5, yeah?
Last edited by Okaros on 01 May 2014, 18:29:20, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 01 May 2014, 18:28:06

Okaros wrote:Um, is that a typo Neckless? Shouldn't it be that there are 1 and *5* members in the game, not 4? Only two Networkers are dead, 2 original + 5 converts = 7 - 2 = 5, yeah?

There are 10 players left, so if there were 5 Networkers the game would be over.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 01 May 2014, 18:29:03

Ozymandias wrote:There are 10 players left, so if there were 5 Networkers the game would be over.


Oh yeah, duh!




Edit: In my defense, it has been a *REALLY* long day at work for me. :lol:
Last edited by Okaros on 01 May 2014, 18:32:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby MaxFrost » 01 May 2014, 18:30:15

Basically telling all the humans that wolves have not met the win condition yet, which is to out number them. This is when the not smart people (i.e. me) would finally clue in that conversions _were_ missed at one point.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 01 May 2014, 18:38:55

So, the questions of the day ought to be:

1) Will Hellheart question his assumptions?
2) Will Hellheart be torn apart by his fellow humans as a suspected Network mastermind?






Also, welcome to the drunk tank Zark!
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 01 May 2014, 19:12:57

Since Furin was power-blocked yesterday, will his doubling VM power work today?

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 01 May 2014, 19:42:41

Ooh, Rictus is off to a surprisingly early start. I wonder if that's actually a serious vote?
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 02 May 2014, 02:49:15

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Hellheart's death will be followed by my immediate lynch, I think. It'll extend the game by a day.

Don't understand why ICB would think that-- Hellheart's reveal as Human would make ICB look more Human, not less, given Hellheart's frequent defense of ICB.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 02 May 2014, 05:11:26

Annnnd Antipater shoots Hellheart, making a lot of things moot. Welcome Hellheart, you poor fool. Please share you screams of agony with everyone when you read who the Network are. :mrgreen:
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby That PJ » 02 May 2014, 05:19:51

Okaros wrote:Annnnd Antipater shoots Hellheart, making a lot of things moot. Welcome Hellheart, you poor fool. Please share you screams of agony with everyone when you read who the Network are. :mrgreen:

On the bright side, maybe this means Rictus can keep the conversation focused on Smirker and FurinMirado. He seems to have the right idea, but it wasn't going to go anywhere if the wolves could push everyone on Hellheart or Hellheart himself pushed everyone to stigmata.

Here's hoping.

Sorry about the shot, man. I was hoping Antipater would wait a little and take aim at someone else.
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby MaxFrost » 02 May 2014, 05:36:22

Yup, humans are screwed. ICB and Furin have both managed to toss the suspicions against them.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby necklessone » 02 May 2014, 05:47:14

Welcome, Hellheart! Sorry for not giving you a fancier death; the vig happened during my commute (which was 80 minutes for 15 miles this morning).

The humans have been in trouble for a while, but I don't think the vig shot alters things that much. It takes Hellheart's double lynch off the table for tomorrow, but the purely statistical odds for finding a wolf have been increased without a decrease in amount of available time. And instead of Hellheart getting more human cred for using a power, it's Antipater.

This does put Furin blocking the maul back into play without the wolves losing a day, but I don't think they'll need to get that tricksy.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby necklessone » 02 May 2014, 06:14:36

Here are the powers left available to the final 9:

Antipater - None
FurinMirado - GA and extra votes if he stays on the same target. Has he even hinted to the other players about the second part of his power? Surely someone will find it suspicious if he tries to stay quiet. And to answer your earlier question, Ozy, the power block won't affect his power today.
Iron Clad Burrito - "Secret" board.
RaveBomb - Self vote reduction. He's provided the power on one of the two boards; it will make him just about impossible to lynch (and then dead easy to lynch the next day).
Rictus - No power left as there won't be any more events.
stigmata - None
Smirker - None
sphenondont - None
Visigoth - None

So all that's left is a pair of not-so-secret boards, an additive vote power, and a self-reduction vote power.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 02 May 2014, 08:14:14

necklessone wrote:The humans have been in trouble for a while, but I don't think the vig shot alters things that much. It takes Hellheart's double lynch off the table for tomorrow, but the purely statistical odds for finding a wolf have been increased without a decrease in amount of available time. And instead of Hellheart getting more human cred for using a power, it's Antipater.


Yeah, if anything I think it improves the chances for the humans slightly. As PJ pointed out, Hellheart would have been an easy bandwagon for the wolves to prop up today. And, counter-intuitively, it makes Furin's proposed block-a-vig ploy *less* likely to succeed: If he'd done it when it would have cost the wolves a day it could have been nearly iron-clad human-cred, but now that it won't cost them anything it should be a much harder sell.
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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby 7-zark-7 » 02 May 2014, 08:17:34

Very sorry to see Hellheart in here so soon, as well as for my poor play (especially at the end). I think I need to take a break gents, I'm losing a key contributor at work simultaneous with increased workload, which makes Zark a dull boy

More in a bit,

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"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 02 May 2014, 09:44:05

7-zark-7 wrote:Very sorry to see Hellheart in here so soon, as well as for my poor play (especially at the end).

I wouldn't beat yourself up about it-- if players knew you could only use your power once per player, I think you wouldn't have gotten so much heat.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 02 May 2014, 09:46:57

So the game is set up pretty well for ICB to win.

Interestingly, suspicion of both Smirker and Furin could split their votes and let them lynch stigmata.

Either way, ICB should probably only vote for his teammates from here on out (aside from a game-winning snipe situation).

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby 7-zark-7 » 02 May 2014, 10:02:01

Ozymandias wrote:So the game is set up pretty well for ICB to win.


I'd vote ICB as MVP of the game. Not most valuable for the human race mind you, but I bought the "couldn't possibly have private forum & be day 0 network" hook, line & sinker.

Necklessone - this was a great game, & actually got me to watch the movie going into day zero. I had seen bits of Shawn of the Dead, but never hot fuzz or The World's end.

I briefly considered RPing Gary's Mom the way I've historically RP'd Sven's Mom, but given she never appears in the movie, I thought it might be too much of a departure. It interests me that I picture her in that role, however.

Less in a bit,

7z7
"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker
"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Admetus » 02 May 2014, 10:10:55

Ozymandias wrote:
7-zark-7 wrote:Very sorry to see Hellheart in here so soon, as well as for my poor play (especially at the end).

I wouldn't beat yourself up about it-- if players knew you could only use your power once per player, I think you wouldn't have gotten so much heat.

I definitely agree. I think your lynch smelled wrong for a few reasons, and I probably would have defended you if I'd been alive.

Hopefully your work troubles clear up soon.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 02 May 2014, 10:22:43

7-zark-7 wrote:I'd vote ICB as MVP of the game.

Agreed.

7-zark-7 wrote:Not most valuable for the human race mind you, but I bought the "couldn't possibly have private forum & be day 0 network" hook, line & sinker.

I must have missed it-- when was this actually discussed on the board?

The first I saw this argument brought up was I think yesterday by Hellheart in the Day thread.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby rekard » 02 May 2014, 10:41:51

I think everyone fell for that line of thought because having the network with 2 boards feels imbalanced. Players don't see it as a power but as a tool. I would honestly be surprised if anyone considered ICB as a pssible day 0 network the moment they entered the boa rd.

Even though Neck said everyone should expect everyone could be network, that doesn't mesh too well with the board owner faction possibilities.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Ozymandias » 02 May 2014, 10:48:36

rekard wrote:I think everyone fell for that line of thought because having the network with 2 boards feels imbalanced. Players don't see it as a power but as a tool. I would honestly be surprised if anyone considered ICB as a pssible day 0 network the moment they entered the boa rd.

Even though Neck said everyone should expect everyone could be network, that doesn't mesh too well with the board owner faction possibilities.

I can sort of see the argument if there were just one board, but given that there are two I think that's just poor metagaming.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby necklessone » 02 May 2014, 10:55:07

If I were Smirker, I'm not sure I'd have brought up the GM post in the main thread intentionally. It may look like he's trying to be misleading when Rave and spheno dispute him.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Okaros » 02 May 2014, 11:20:41

I think that's one of the ways dedicated subforums vs PMs can trick people... It's easier to think of sending PMs as a power, whereas a subforum feels more like an external "thing" that implies a full-blown Faction of some kind. I think someone made a similar comment in the dead thread about the Quantum game: People were thinking of their private PM subforums as actual full-blown factual teams rather than the loose collections of people agreeing to work together they actually were.

It's a misconception that will probably fade over time as the subforum-instead-of-PMs idea sees more use and people learn their lessons the hard way. Until then, I'm sure the wolves will be happy to exploit the crap out of that mistaken way of thinking. ;)
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby Hellheart » 02 May 2014, 11:57:43

(this is before I read the wolf list)

Getting a job (which is a crappy one that's not worth congratulations over, but at least I don't have a huge dead spot on my resume) right before this started just killed me. I'm used to having the time to really look at stuff and do analysis, and I had to balance that against everything else and my gaming impulses.

So when I missed warnings and reveals, it's because I usually read everything twice before I post and I frequently and consistently had to post without reading anything at all. It's more about correctly budgeting my time and speeding up my thought process than anything else.

I think I did remarkably well given the circumstances, but of course I didn't have enough trust/support to save the people I wanted to save. Hate getting shot by the newbie there, but he's really the only person that would have outright shot me given how I was acting. Once I felt/knew that the forum was compromised, I started doing what I've done for the past couple of human-wolf games - acting completely insane, flying by the seat of my pants, and being totally instinctive to keep people off balance. It's the only way I seem to be able to get reads that I can really trust.

I was really hobbled by the way the Alliance was made, because I had to show solidarity no matter how filthy I thought a player was. I was REALLY disappointed when Zark blocked the GA, because I trusted Zark and pretty much nobody else. I knew that the wolf had to be one of the original two or Zark (although I didn't trust sphenodont at all. I did not like when ICB recruited him, even though he ended up shooting a wolf), but I couldn't say anything against ICB or Ravebomb because I would've gotten lynched long ago without their support. And between the two, I thought Ravebomb was suspicious as hell.

The funniest thing about my flailing is that I don't even know what I'm going to do, since almost all of it is instinct. I mean, from the previous day to today I flipped my Visigoth read, started waffling hard on ICB, and if I were still alive I would've counter-pushed Furin over Stigmata because a push on me like that is incredibly slimy and smacked of a setup.

I was entertaining a Furin-Visigoth-Stigmata wolf set at the start of the day, but I really don't know who the wolves are. I just had my human reads, and then they kept getting killed.

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Re: A Hangover to End All Hangovers (Discussion)

Postby rekard » 02 May 2014, 12:14:17

I don't understand. Why is there an obligation to show solidarity in a forum with non confirmed people? And why going after ICB and Ravebomb would have gotten you lynched? I can't follow that train of thought.


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