Known Powers

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Ozymandias
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Known Powers

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Apr 2014, 08:24:40

Ryvvn -- private voting + Seer
DOM -- "robot"ic vote augmentation
rekard -- Marmalade vote manipulation
CAD-- drinking game initiation (three other Hooligans?)
Simple_Simon -- Piss Taker, vote manipulation
Okaros & That PG-- Twins: PM one another, doubled votes on same target
Admetus -- block vote manipulations
twdog-- coinflip initiation (three other Hooligans?)
Meta4-- private board, Vig reward
dferrantino -- vote manipulation
Maxfrost -- Graffiti

Smirker-- Vig shot
spheno -- Vig + Day 6 double vote event (Hooligan?) + Now controls Meta4's private board
blindsniper -- Marmalade sandwicher (Day 2 vote with rekard)
stigmata -- Marmalade sandwicher (Day 7 votes with blind on ICB and Maxfrost)
ICB -- personal board
Ozy -- cancel events
FurinMirado -- VM powers + GA
Hellheart -- special events (double vote, lynch+reward, coinflip) -- Hooligan?
Zark -- power blocker
RaveBomb -- claimed limited VM powers. Marmalade sandwicher?

Visigoth -- may have activated a power with odd repeated name voting on Day 5
Rictus -- possible Hooligan who triggered Day 3 event but then lost his Vig due to non-voting?
San -- ???
Antipater -- ???

Power Penalties / Blocks:

Day 3: Rictus, CAD, Okaros (by Zark)
Day 4: Zark, Smirker
Day 7: Antipater, Maxfrost
Day 8: Antipater (by Zark)

Anything I'm missing?
Last edited by Ozymandias on 28 Apr 2014, 20:04:57, edited 14 times in total.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 25 Apr 2014, 08:46:48

I don't think hh is lying. His reactions (in a private board) seem genuine.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Admetus » 25 Apr 2014, 08:50:39

Okaros speculates that the messages the GM is relating come from Smirker, based on the days he's power blocked for not voting coinciding with the days there's no graffiti.

-edit-
What day is that?
-e2-
Oh he was penalized by being in third place for Day 4.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 10:06:55

Never mind.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 28 Apr 2014, 09:15:13, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 10:13:23

Just want to give you a heads up-- above (EDIT: deleted) is first half of the draft of my detailed analysis post.

I'm still going to wind up voting for Smirker and ICB, but they'll be a lot of ammunition against other players.

Also, I'm going to accuse ICB of being the vote cancelling Networker as part of my argument, which he can easily disprove by revealing his power-- at the very least, the three players on the Board should be less swayed by my arguments.

Anyway, Admetus, focusing so much on the vote cancellation as a Network power might get you in trouble if someone has Role Seered you, but I think you can easily dismiss my allegations by arguing that you were simply trying to prevent the Twins from controlling the lynch.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 28 Apr 2014, 09:15:34, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Admetus » 26 Apr 2014, 10:42:21

Yeah I'd already planned on saying it looked like an important vote. I don't foresee much chance I'll be forced to claim, though.

The more interesting time will come after I'm lynched and revealed as Network. Will that reveal ICB? Hopefully not, but it will depend on who's still alive at that point.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 10:58:54

Admetus wrote:The more interesting time will come after I'm lynched and revealed as Network. Will that reveal ICB?

I think it will, yes, which is why I'm trying to build some Human cred by "predicting" it.

But on the plus side, I think ICB is a lot more likely to die before you do!

Also, it's going to be hard for any of the three of us to make it all the way to the end, because of our longer history.

Our goal should really be to set up Furin and the two other future Networkers for the win.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 26 Apr 2014, 21:37:41

OK. Given what we know now about Sphen (double vote game + vig) I am prepared to conclude:

1. Smirker was the coinflip game yesterday
2. There is one more out there. Watch for a lynch-and-reward game, there will probably be a vig that day. I don't know if that was the Day 3 game (with a missed opportunity to vig) or not; the day 3 game provided an extra element (punishment for the 3rd place voter).
3. There is no thief/replicant power.

I'm trying to get clarity from hellheart, but I think he has 3 voting games with no vig. I know he wants the double-vote game for a late-game setup.

[e] Also, from the day thread, blindsniper is part of the marmalade.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Ozymandias » 26 Apr 2014, 23:40:21

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:OK. Given what we know now about Sphen (double vote game + vig) I am prepared to conclude:

1. Smirker was the coinflip game yesterday
2. There is one more out there. Watch for a lynch-and-reward game, there will probably be a vig that day. I don't know if that was the Day 3 game (with a missed opportunity to vig) or not; the day 3 game provided an extra element (punishment for the 3rd place voter).

The lack of a Vig on Day 3 is the really puzzling part of your theory.

Hmm, is it possible that Rictus PM'ed necklessone on Day 2 to trigger the game, but then forgot to vote on Day 2, and thus by rule lost his Vig shot on Day 3?

That would also explain the otherwise very puzzling lack of Vigs thru Day 4 (given the absence of mauls).

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Admetus » 27 Apr 2014, 00:51:52

I'm thinking that having a bunch of vig shots spread out could be meant to keep the pace of the game up -- but it's possible they don't all have vigilante shots. Maybe one has event + seer, or event + guardian angel.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Ozymandias » 27 Apr 2014, 01:33:31

I think I figured it out from a metagame standpoint.

necklessone HAD to give the single-event power players an extra power, because of ME.

Since I could cancel one of the events, a player who can only trigger one event could wind up effectively powerless if I cancelled their event.

That would also explain why Hellheart wouldn't have an added power, because he can trigger multiple events, only one of which I can stop.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 27 Apr 2014, 05:42:18

Ozymandias wrote:I think I figured it out from a metagame standpoint.

necklessone HAD to give the single-event power players an extra power, because of ME.

Since I could cancel one of the events, a player who can only trigger one event could wind up effectively powerless if I cancelled their event.

That would also explain why Hellheart wouldn't have an added power, because he can trigger multiple events, only one of which I can stop.


Just confirmed: Hellheart can trigger all 3 (his power now requires a 2-day cooldown, new change) and is given lowest priority -- no matter how early he sends his games in, if anyone else sends a game he doesn't get to use his), and has no vig.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Admetus » 27 Apr 2014, 10:57:49

That's a lot of events. Remind me, Ozy, does yours have a cooldown or was it a one shot deal?

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Ozymandias » 27 Apr 2014, 10:59:25

Admetus wrote:That's a lot of events. Remind me, Ozy, does yours have a cooldown or was it a one shot deal?

One shot. I'm done.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 09:16:09

Updated analysis of remaining powers.

Let me know if I've missed anything.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 21:13:30

Updated analysis of remaining powers again.

Let me know if I've missed anything.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 06:25:22

Zark's power block comes in the first wave of 'some night powers'. Just in case that's important.

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Re: Known Powers

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 09:01:38

Ravebomb claims his power will only save him.

Starting to doubt this. It seems awfully limited compared to the rest of the powers seen...


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