Night 6: What the hell?

[necklessone]

Okay, this is just insane. Are these people really this uncivilized?

Tonight is a conversion night. May it go better than the last one.

[Ozymandias]

ICB, I think I'm going to vote for you and Smirker today, arguing that you two are teammates.

That way if I get lynched or vigged, you'll get some Human cred.

And if only Smirker gets lynched, his humanity should buy you some Human cred.

But part of the rationale is that I think you're the most suspicious Networker so it makes sense to risk sacrificing you because if you die then we can continue hunting through all the players who voted for the Twins.

[Admetus]

Convert FurinMirado > Rictus. Convert him to heck!

[Ozymandias]

Convert FurinMirado > Rictus.

[Iron Clad Burrito]

Agreed.

I don't have the full rundown yet, but sphenodont claims today is his doing.

Ozy - Hm. I will trust you, but I don't want to die yet, please take that under advisement.

[Iron Clad Burrito]

There. You have a fake - looking attempt at distancing us that you can pick at, as well.

[Ozymandias]

There. You have a fake - looking attempt at distancing us that you can pick at, as well.

Thanks.

Okay, I'm going to make a case that Day 3 is the key to the analysis, and that the Network probably cancelled vote manipulation because at least one of them was in Danger.

Which means you, Smirker, or Meta4 must be Network-- I'll then vote for you and Smirker.

But that should give you (and others) an opportunity to vote for Meta4-- because you can point out that Meta4 was the only one of you three that a twin actually voted for that day.

I'll wait a little bit though-- no reason to start your bandwagon too soon.

[Ozymandias]

Admetus, who are you considering for your second vote?

[Admetus]

Haven't spent much thought on it. I don't want to say dferrantino, he started talking yesterday. I need to spend some time coming up with productive thoughts.

[Iron Clad Burrito]

I am going to try to rally my troops to my aid once you go on the attack.

Should I die, my board falls under Ravebomb' control and maintains odd-night recruitment. If they don't disintegrate pointing fingers at one another. Remaining hierarchy is Hellheart, then sphenodont. If I predecease Ozy, I think you could get Hellheart on your side quick.

C/p will still happen, dealing with a sick kid and a car that died on the way back from the doctor. Great day. Sorry.

[Admetus]

No rush, plenty of time on the weekend.

[Ozymandias]

Haven't spent much thought on it. I don't want to say dferrantino, he started talking yesterday.

dferr is getting a fair amount of heat, though.

And Hellheart seems to expecting you to vote for him.

[Ozymandias]

I don't have the full rundown yet, but sphenodont claims today is his doing.

It's kind of odd that spheno would claim a power (i.e., double vote event) that's so similar to Hellheart's role claim.

I wonder if HellHeart has been lying to you, and he's actually the Role Seer?

So once he seered spheno, he decided to claim his role on your board?

[Admetus]

That's possible, but one of the "hooligans" was CAD, with a very similar "set up an event" power, which he probably couldn't cause to happen post-mortem. There are five "hooligans," it may be that necklessone simply gave each of them a different set of event possibilities. Those might be the only way events get started, for instance.

Kind of makes your power a bit of a killjoy, though, if it's only used to veto the effect of someone else's power.

[Ozymandias]

That's possible, but one of the "hooligans" was CAD, with a very similar "set up an event" power, which he probably couldn't cause to happen post-mortem. There are five "hooligans," it may be that necklessone simply gave each of them a different set of event possibilities. Those might be the only way events get started, for instance.

Yeah, that's true-- I forgot about the other potential Hooligans.

I suppose if spheno claims Hooligan then that would explain the appparent discrepancy.

Kind of makes your power a bit of a killjoy, though, if it's only used to veto the effect of someone else's power.

Tell me about it!

[Ozymandias]

If spheno is a Holligan, that could actually wind up saving me, because according to CAD's role description:

This game will supersede any special events planned by the GM or triggered by players who PM me after you do.

So I could plausibly argue that spheno triggering this game is what called off the Coinflip, not my power.

[Admetus]

So I could plausibly argue that spheno triggering this game is what called off the Coinflip, not my power.

I wouldn't interpret it that way. The event for the coin flip would have been one day, your event would have been another. The results of the coin flip would have been compatible, I'd think.

Though, man, a double elimination on a limited pool would have sucked.

[Ozymandias]

GM, can you answer a hypothetical?

Let's say the Coinflip was a pre-planned GM (as opposed to player-triggered) event.

And let's say that CAD was still alive, and PM'ed you yesterday to activate his power.

Based on this description:

Once per game, you may PM me to let me know that you wish to start a game of Asshole at the beginning of the next Round. This game will supersede any special events planned by the GM or triggered by players who PM me after you do.

What would have happened?

Would both the second part of the Coinflip AND Asshole have taken place on Day 6, or just the latter?

[necklessone]

GM, can you answer a hypothetical?

Let's say the Coinflip was a pre-planned GM (as opposed to player-triggered) event.

And let's say that CAD was still alive, and PM'ed you yesterday to activate his power.

Based on this description:

Once per game, you may PM me to let me know that you wish to start a game of Asshole at the beginning of the next Round. This game will supersede any special events planned by the GM or triggered by players who PM me after you do.

What would have happened?

Would both the second part of the Coinflip AND Asshole have taken place on Day 6, or just the latter?

CAD's power would have only superseded a GM planned event if there was a conflict between the events. Since the rules for CAD's power are not public information, I can't be specific as whether it would conflict with the coin flip resolution.

[Ozymandias]

CAD's power would have only superseded a GM planned event if there was a conflict between the events. Since the rules for CAD's power are not public information, I can't be specific as whether it would conflict with the coin flip resolution.

Okay, thanks.

[Admetus]

But you would agree that (the current) double elimination would not conflict with the results of the coin flip?

[Iron Clad Burrito]

But you would agree that (the current) double elimination would not conflict with the results of the coin flip?

That's how I read it, honestly... CAD could set an event for the following day, superseding any plans the GM had and taking precedence over anyone else setting games.

...which makes me believe Hellheart might be telling the truth, but I'll outright ask him and see what happens.

(BTW, yes, sick kid = ear infection, and dead car = transmission is fucked. So it's been a great day.)

[necklessone]

But you would agree that (the current) double elimination would not conflict with the results of the coin flip?

No comment, since the answer would change based on which, if any, event was player initiated versus GM initiated and whether the information provided in the day thread was completely accurate or if there were hidden aspects.

[necklessone]

(BTW, yes, sick kid = ear infection, and dead car = transmission is fucked. So it's been a great day.)

Jesus, ICB. Good thoughts in your direction.

[Ozymandias]

But you would agree that (the current) double elimination would not conflict with the results of the coin flip?

No comment, since the answer would change based on which, if any, event was player initiated versus GM initiated and whether the information provided in the day thread was completely accurate or if there were hidden aspects.

Understood.

Admetus, I agree with your non-conflict interpretation for the current scenario.

[Iron Clad Burrito]

(BTW, yes, sick kid = ear infection, and dead car = transmission is fucked. So it's been a great day.)

Jesus, ICB. Good thoughts in your direction.

Thanks. We're trying to buy a house, too, so we're deciding right now whether to replace the transmission or just say "fuck it" and start replacing cars a year earlier than planned. Sigh

It happened, literally, 3 days after the car turned 10, and it has just over 102K miles. I wonder what the odds are of that being coincidental.

But that's more for G+ posts.

[Ozymandias]

Okay I tried to decipher Spheno's Gog RP, but couldn't figure out a couple of the names/descriptions:

Pooky = ?
Fleck = ?
bard = Fleck ?

Fiona = Hellheart
Zot = Smirker?
barbarian = dferrantino
priestess = Admetus
tree lady = Visigoth
purple-haired wizard = Ozy?
friendly paladin = San?
Cabal = Network

Gerki = Okaros
not-Gerki = That PJ
Captain = CAD
Dimli = rekard

[Admetus]

I really haven't been trying to figure it out. Heh.

[Ozymandias]

Here's the current vote distribution:

Smirker - 4 - Furin, Ozy, Zark, Meta4
dferrantino - 2 - Furin, Hellheart
ICB - 2 - Ozy, Meta4,
Meta4 - 1 - Hellheart
Antipater - 1 - San
sphenodont - 1 - San
Blindsniper - 1 - Zark

Additional votes on Smirker are not necessary right now-- because of the double voting, piling on to the leader is in a sense a wasted vote.

Also, if spheno Vigs Smirker, then it will be better if you're not actually voting for a revealed Human.

So I think the best votes are the following:

ICB - revenge vote on Meta4, and a vote for dferr out of self-defense-- don't call it that at first, because we don't want to alert other players to proper strategy (which is to bump someone into SECOND, not first), but that's how you can justify it later.

Admetus, can you justify voting for Blindsniper and Meta4? I know you went after Smirker hard earlier, but I think you're the type of player who wouldn't want to waste his vote on the leader in this situation.

If not, can you just wait until later to vote? People get busy on the weekends, so I don't think it will be that conspicuous. And I think as long as you don't post, you're unlikely to draw Vig or lynch attention.

[Ozymandias]

Also, San's vote for spheno gives us an opportunity.

If spheno does shoot Smirker, than he'll draw some lynch votes, which can also be justified by how much Twin manipulation he did on multiple days.

Also, if he forgets to mention that he just got his Vig today, then Admetus or I can totally justify switching a vote on to him by arguing that a Human vig would have taken out the Twins much earlier, especially one who voted for them.

But obviously we wouldn't make such an argument until the last minute or two so that no one in the other forum has time to rebut it.

[Ozymandias]

Admetus, another option might be voting for Furin?

I know you wanted some Human cred for later in the game, and Furin may not be Network now but he will be soon, and I don't think anyone will ever know when he was turned.

And a benefit of putting some lynch pressure on Furin is that it should keep his votes on dferr and Smirker.

[Ozymandias]

reposting here so Admetus doesn't miss it

Gog suppose that Zot has similar ability. Gog not know why Zot just not unleash Pooky, but maybe Pooky being ornery?

Gog thinking of inviting priestess to dance, or maybe barbarian?


(Admetus or dfer, though Admetus is pressing more of the buttons for me.)

[Iron Clad Burrito]

I'm about to go on and vote (and you have suggested the optimum vote, I think), but am making a pretense of talking to the guys first.

[Ozymandias]

I'm about to go on and vote (and you have suggested the optimum vote, I think), but am making a pretense of talking to the guys first.

Not quite so sure now-- if you put 3rd vote on dferr, won't that make spheno more likely to shoot Admetus?

[Ozymandias]

Blindsniper's online-- he may be about to vote

[Iron Clad Burrito]

Hm.

Shit, I forgot, he (probably) has to shoot today. I was thinking more "if dferr survives until tomorrow."

OK...

[Ozymandias]

Hm.

Shit, I forgot, he (probably) has to shoot today. I was thinking more "if dferr survives until tomorrow."

OK...

Can you ask him?

[Admetus]

If sphenodont is going to shoot, it will probably be soonish.

[Ozymandias]

Just spitballing here-- what if Admetus votes for ICB so that ICB can retaliate?

Do you guys maybe want to stage a fight?

If Admetus is about to get shot I'd really like to get some Human cred for a Networker out of it.

[Ozymandias]

Hold on, that's an interesting post by Hellheart defending ICB.

[Iron Clad Burrito]

Just spitballing here-- what if Admetus votes for ICB so that ICB can retaliate?

Do you guys maybe want to stage a fight?

If Admetus is about to get shot I'd really like to get some Human cred for a Networker out of it.

I don't know if I want Admetus shot. If anyone should die first, I'd like it to be me, because there might be a LOT of chaos brought about with my death.

Let's slow this down and think about it for a sec. If YOU (Ozy) apply some more pressure WRT my power, I will ask the guys to at least vouch that he's wrong. If I can get them to acquiesce and publicly say I'm not a vote manipulator, and I die, this will shine a bright spotlight on them.

Thoughts on this?

[Ozymandias]

I don't know if I want Admetus shot. If anyone should die first, I'd like it to be me, because there might be a LOT of chaos brought about with my death.

Let's slow this down and think about it for a sec. If YOU (Ozy) apply some more pressure WRT my power, I will ask the guys to at least vouch that he's wrong. If I can get them to acquiesce and publicly say I'm not a vote manipulator, and I die, this will shine a bright spotlight on them.

Thoughts on this?

Okay that might be work. I'll give it a try.

[Ozymandias]

Admetus, what if after ICB and I squabble for a bit, you said something like:

"I can confirm that ICB is not the vote manipulation cancellor"

This should lead to discussion on ICB board about how you can know this, at which point they would realize that you were probably the vote cancellor.

Might that admission be enough to stop spheno from Vigging you?

[Ozymandias]

I don't know if I want Admetus shot. If anyone should die first, I'd like it to be me, because there might be a LOT of chaos brought about with my death.

That was my initial instinct, but after seeing Hellheart's list I'm not so sure.

You need to die at some point, because you're right about the resultant chaos, but I'm not so sure any more you should die first.

Because even those who don't think Admetus is a Networker think he's a likely convert, so I'm not sure he has much long-term viability.

[Iron Clad Burrito]

I don't know if I want Admetus shot. If anyone should die first, I'd like it to be me, because there might be a LOT of chaos brought about with my death.

That was my initial instinct, but after seeing Hellheart's list I'm not so sure.

You need to die at some point, because you're right about the resultant chaos, but I'm not so sure any more you should die first.

Because even those who don't think Admetus is a Networker think he's a likely convert, so I'm not sure he has much long-term viability.

I think Admetus is high on my group's list of people to go. Maybe this is cooldown time for us.

It was worth a shot, because right now, despite my network, I think Admetus is more valuable to the team.

He gets his power back today/tomorrow as well.

[Ozymandias]

Here's my day thread response to Hellheart:

-----------------------------------

This is kind of funny to me. Human ICB acts very differently from Wolf ICB if you know what to look for. I see his recent behavior as very clearly human ICB. He said at one point that you could read him really well, so I'm wondering what you're seeing that I'm not seeing.

ICB has seemed very hesitant for most of the game-- he hasn't counter-attacked as much as he usually does, and he's usually waited until very late to vote.

In my experience, that often happens because a Wolf is trying to coordinate a response with teammates.

--------------------------------------

Thoughts?

[Admetus]

Not sure what cooldown we have, ICB.

I think it would be really iffy that I would role claim on a conversion day, but maybe if I claim it's gone now.


Also I'm working on some actual analysis. Maybe if I post that I'll convince spheno to pick dferrantino instead. Interestingly the only person it really implicates at all yet is FurinMirado.

[Admetus]

Thoughts?

I'd agree with the late voting, I'm not sure I'd agree as much with the not counterattacking.

Don't go getting yourself killed for my sake.

[Ozymandias]

Also I'm working on some actual analysis. Maybe if I post that I'll convince spheno to pick dferrantino instead. Interestingly the only person it really implicates at all yet is FurinMirado.

This I think would definitely be a good idea.

[Iron Clad Burrito]

Here's my day thread response to Hellheart:

-----------------------------------

This is kind of funny to me. Human ICB acts very differently from Wolf ICB if you know what to look for. I see his recent behavior as very clearly human ICB. He said at one point that you could read him really well, so I'm wondering what you're seeing that I'm not seeing.

ICB has seemed very hesitant for most of the game-- he hasn't counter-attacked as much as he usually does, and he's usually waited until very late to vote.

In my experience, that often happens because a Wolf is trying to coordinate a response with teammates.

--------------------------------------

Thoughts?

I can at least defend myself with absolute truth (IRL on Mon/Tues, withholding vote defensively for a couple more days).

BUT it looks like we'll cool down for a bit. Admetus may be the first to die after all.