Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

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Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby necklessone » 28 Apr 2014, 18:24:02

They're slowing down, but this still isn't what you want. Maybe if you replace another one?

Conversion votes, please.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 28 Apr 2014, 19:05:20

Nice deduction on the marmalade. It's stigmata for sure.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 19:06:55

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Nice deduction on the marmalade. It's stigmata for sure.

Yeah.

And that will also be my defense for not sniping yesterday-- I wanted to rule myself out by not voting with blind.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 28 Apr 2014, 19:16:10

Trying to work on opening Zark up.

Our power list should be near-complete. The role seer, should a person exist, is one of the quiet ones. I'd wager San.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 19:22:20

Has the other board mentioned Visigoth as a convert suspect?

If not, he might be a good target.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 28 Apr 2014, 19:29:17

Ozymandias wrote:Has the other board mentioned Visigoth as a convert suspect?

If not, he might be a good target.



If I haven't posted it in the other thread, then no. (Will comb through again, give me a few minutes)

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 19:43:16

Okay I see three options for conversion:

(1) Visigoth, because we don't know his power and of the current unknowns he would be the most dangerous Role Seer (though only to me).

(2) sphenodont, because he's on both boards, and he has a hard-on for Furin

(3) Smirker, because his Vig might reload. Also, whichever of he and ICB gets lynched first should strongly clear the other.

Thoughts?

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 19:43:52

Hey there, Maxfrost! Nice game!

Good to have you back!

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 19:49:57

So I don't know when we should mention this in the main thread, but Blind & stig are effectively just as hard to kill as the Twins-- because adding +1 to their target and subtracting a vote from themselves gives them the same net +2 advantage as the Twins.

I suppose if one of us gets in early lynch trouble, we can point that out.

But I don't want to get them angry at us-- ICB, maybe you can bring it up on your board, and see if anyone there mentions it on the Day thread?

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 28 Apr 2014, 19:52:21

Ozymandias wrote:Okay I see three options for conversion:

(1) Visigoth, because we don't know his power and of the current unknowns he would be the most dangerous Role Seer (though only to me).

(2) sphenodont, because he's on both boards, and he has a hard-on for Furin

(3) Smirker, because his Vig might reload. Also, whichever of he and ICB gets lynched first should strongly clear the other.

Thoughts?

Of the three... IDK.

Any role seer is dangerous to you, since you cancelled the coinflip. If you think visigoth is dangerous to you PERSONALLY, I will submit that he's actually LESS likely to be the role seer.

Are you sure Smirker's now opposed to me? I know a few days ago he was aligned with me, which is why I'd not convert.

Sphen's the most likely of the three, however, he's powerless aside from his board, which should have population 3 with one missed recruitment and meta4's death. I'm 98% sure there's no overlap between my board and sphen's, save sphen, so it MIGHT be worthwhile to bring him in, but I'm literally "meh" on him.

I am actually thinking, and stay with me here, Antipater's the role seer.

He's the ONLY one, I think, who wouldn't have seer'd you by now, called you out for cancelling the coinflip, and declared you network. It only makes sense because he doesn't know you, and if I'd thought of this 3 hours ago I'd have brought him in.

pre-post edit:
Ozymandias wrote:So I don't know when we should mention this in the main thread, but Blind & stig are effectively just as hard to kill as the Twins-- because adding +1 to their target and subtracting a vote from themselves gives them the same net +2 advantage as the Twins.

I suppose if one of us gets in early lynch trouble, we can point that out.

But I don't want to get them angry at us-- ICB, maybe you can bring it up on your board, and see if anyone there mentions it on the Day thread?


I will mention it.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 19:57:38

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Are you sure Smirker's now opposed to me? I know a few days ago he was aligned with me, which is why I'd not convert.

Okay never mind Smirker then-- it's probably too clever an idea by half, since it relies on one of you dying to be truly effective.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 19:59:53

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:I am actually thinking, and stay with me here, Antipater's the role seer.

He's the ONLY one, I think, who wouldn't have seer'd you by now, called you out for cancelling the coinflip, and declared you network. It only makes sense because he doesn't know you, and if I'd thought of this 3 hours ago I'd have brought him in.

That could be. But since Zark just blocked him, we don't have to worry about Antipater getting a vision tonight.

So I think we can hold off converting him-- especially since the newbie is a very obvious conversion target, which I think will make it very hard for him to win a solo endgame if it came to that.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 28 Apr 2014, 20:02:16

Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Are you sure Smirker's now opposed to me? I know a few days ago he was aligned with me, which is why I'd not convert.

Okay never mind Smirker then-- it's probably too clever an idea by half, since it relies on one of you dying to be truly effective.

It's a good idea, my question is more in general board feeling. We'd set up for smirker to be aligned with me, and I'm still playing it that way -- not voting for him at all, etc.
---

I've theorized that the marmalade sandwich might have flipped, and if so, it was blindsniper. My forum can deduce the other being Stigmata with the info at hand, but the Network doesn't necessarily KNOW.

Maybe I can convince sphen to run on blindsniper.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 28 Apr 2014, 20:08:09

Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:I am actually thinking, and stay with me here, Antipater's the role seer.

He's the ONLY one, I think, who wouldn't have seer'd you by now, called you out for cancelling the coinflip, and declared you network. It only makes sense because he doesn't know you, and if I'd thought of this 3 hours ago I'd have brought him in.

That could be. But since Zark just blocked him, we don't have to worry about Antipater getting a vision tonight.

So I think we can hold off converting him-- especially since the newbie is a very obvious conversion target, which I think will make it very hard for him to win a solo endgame if it came to that.


...last night, yes?

I'm not necessarily advocating conversion, though I'm still of the opinion that our role seer is from a voice that wouldn't necessarily be a high candidate for conversion.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 20:10:02

Maybe I'm over-thinking this.

Absent a recharging Vig, none of the known player powers can really hurt us. Even Hellheart's double lynch or coinflip won't necessarily be a bad thing for us.

So there are four players whose power we don't know:

Visigoth
Rictus (might be Day 3 game hooligan, but can't be sure)
San
Antipater.

I'm going to add RaveBomb to that list because I haven't seen any evidence of his vote reduction power.

Of those five, Visigoth and Rictus are I think the two best endgame players.

But Rictus is suspected as a likely target by the other board.

So I think Visigoth > Rictus should be our conversion target.

But I'm willing to consider alternatives ...

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 20:15:02

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:I am actually thinking, and stay with me here, Antipater's the role seer.

He's the ONLY one, I think, who wouldn't have seer'd you by now, called you out for cancelling the coinflip, and declared you network. It only makes sense because he doesn't know you, and if I'd thought of this 3 hours ago I'd have brought him in.

That could be. But since Zark just blocked him, we don't have to worry about Antipater getting a vision tonight.

So I think we can hold off converting him-- especially since the newbie is a very obvious conversion target, which I think will make it very hard for him to win a solo endgame if it came to that.


...last night, yes?

I guess I'm a little hazy on the order of operations.

Antipater was penalized for missing the Day 6 lynch-- if he's Role Seer, does that mean he missed the Night 6 vision, or the Night 7 Vision?

If the latter, then Zark's power block taking effect on Antipater last night would be a waste of his power.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 28 Apr 2014, 20:24:28

Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:I am actually thinking, and stay with me here, Antipater's the role seer.

He's the ONLY one, I think, who wouldn't have seer'd you by now, called you out for cancelling the coinflip, and declared you network. It only makes sense because he doesn't know you, and if I'd thought of this 3 hours ago I'd have brought him in.

That could be. But since Zark just blocked him, we don't have to worry about Antipater getting a vision tonight.

So I think we can hold off converting him-- especially since the newbie is a very obvious conversion target, which I think will make it very hard for him to win a solo endgame if it came to that.


...last night, yes?

I guess I'm a little hazy on the order of operations.

Antipater was penalized for missing the Day 6 lynch-- if he's Role Seer, does that mean he missed the Night 6 vision, or the Night 7 Vision?

If the latter, then Zark's power block taking effect on Antipater last night would be a waste of his power.


I just got a clarification on Zark, his blocking lasts from sundown to sundown. So...

Shit, IDK what that says. It should only block one vision. It wouldn't surprise me that Zark could have done that, he's not that deep into the game this time.

--necklessone -- Order of Operations?

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby necklessone » 28 Apr 2014, 20:28:57

I'll pass on answering any question about the powers other people are claiming. For missed votes that lead to power loss, the penalty starts on the night of the missed vote and runs through the next day. So you don't get to use a night power on the day you don't vote if that's the penalty I selected.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 28 Apr 2014, 20:30:21

necklessone wrote:I'll pass on answering any question about the powers other people are claiming. For missed votes that lead to power loss, the penalty starts on the night of the missed vote and runs through the next day. So you don't get to use a night power on the day you don't vote if that's the penalty I selected.


I'm asking on generality here:

conversion
lynch
power blockers
seers
etc
etc

No names needed. Not asking for a veracity check on what Zark is saying. Just what your OOO is at night.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 28 Apr 2014, 20:31:39

I'm out for the night, so feel free to answer in the AM. :) I spent too long here, and not long enough looking at cars or houses.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 20:33:52

necklessone wrote:I'll pass on answering any question about the powers other people are claiming. For missed votes that lead to power loss, the penalty starts on the night of the missed vote and runs through the next day. So you don't get to use a night power on the day you don't vote if that's the penalty I selected.

Thanks-- that means Antipater lost his Night 6 vision.

So ICB you were right, Zark probably did block him Night 7.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 20:34:40

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:I'm out for the night, so feel free to answer in the AM. :) I spent too long here, and not long enough looking at cars or houses.

Well not sure it was worth it to you but definitely worth it to us-- great job extracting info on the other board!

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby necklessone » 28 Apr 2014, 20:36:05

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
necklessone wrote:I'll pass on answering any question about the powers other people are claiming. For missed votes that lead to power loss, the penalty starts on the night of the missed vote and runs through the next day. So you don't get to use a night power on the day you don't vote if that's the penalty I selected.


I'm asking on generality here:

conversion
lynch
power blockers
seers
etc
etc

No names needed. Not asking for a veracity check on what Zark is saying. Just what your OOO is at night.


Here's the best I can give you.

Order of Operations

1) Lynch
2) Some night powers
3) Guardian Angel
4) Conversion (on even nights)
5) Seer
6) Some other night powers

Players can ask me if their powers fall into 2 or 6.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Apr 2014, 20:37:07

Thanks.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 06:28:49

Hellhearts poke at Zark... Zark thinks it's a ruse, obviously. Hellheart turned lukewarm to Zark in the waning minutes yesterday, claims he warmed back up, but then voted him. There's been no discussion of this.

Don't take the bait, just in case.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 29 Apr 2014, 10:59:48

Amazingly, we may not have enough votes to take out ICB today!

I'm at a little bit of a loss, frankly-- I'm not sure Human Ozy would vote for Smirker five days in a row.

But I also don't think I'd give up on my "Admetus used his power to protect a teammate" theory.

I'm thinking of posting something like the following:

---------------------------------------------------------------

Rictus wrote:So yesterday I said that I was willing to wait on Hellheart until we see if ICB is a replicant. That hasn't gained much traction, but after last night I'm going to go ahead and see if Hellheart has any circuits.

Hellheart, I think that the multiple bounces between Maxfrost and Blindsniper were more about protecting ICB vs finding a networker.

I've also become somewhat suspicious of Hellheart.

Hellheart, I understand that you think you have solid Humans reads on ICB and Smirker. But personally I think reads are overrated, which is why I rely more on logical analysis of voting bandwagons.

And the logic of the argument that Admetus used his power on Day 3 to help a teammate in lynch trouble seems sound. So can you explain why you think this analysis is incorrect?

Do you think Admetus wasn't converted when he used his power? If so, why would Human Admetus use it?

-----------------------------------------------------

Thoughts? Can he reasonably counter that Admetus used his power to neutralize the Twins?

Or is this too good an argument? If so, how can I weaken it?

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby FurinMirado » 29 Apr 2014, 11:34:00

I like the idea of converting Visigoth --> Rictus


I'm going to have to oppose the lynching of Hellheart since I've already mentioned he seems Human to me. I might join the Blindsniper bandwagon with the explanation that it might be time to go after one of the quiet ones and I'd rather see Blindsniper lynched than Hellheart.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 11:37:09

I am nudging my group toward quieter players, and Rictus is one of those. I can't support Rictus as backup, but visigoth is a good primary target.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 29 Apr 2014, 11:38:31

FurinMirado wrote:I'm going to have to oppose the lynching of Hellheart since I've already mentioned he seems Human to me. I might join the Blindsniper bandwagon with the explanation that it might be time to go after one of the quiet ones and I'd rather see Blindsniper lynched than Hellheart.

Sounds good-- but need to be careful that the Marmaladers don't retaliate. May want to wait for at least one other blindsniper vote.

Hmm, Blind might be a good target for ICB too?

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 29 Apr 2014, 11:40:27

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:I am nudging my group toward quieter players, and Rictus is one of those. I can't support Rictus as backup, but visigoth is a good primary target.

What about San as the backup? Or sphenodont?

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 11:42:17

Funny how I can't be killed when we plan for it... But we can push harder tomorrow and retry the panic recruiting decision thing again.

--blind is a good target for ICB. I have already laid groundwork for that on my board

San might be good, but hh mentioned that San gets policy lynch in late game. It may not matter much on that front. Sphenodont would be better overall, but I can't discount San as a good option.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby FurinMirado » 29 Apr 2014, 11:45:46

I like sphenodont as a backup conversion.


I'm just considering voting for whatever alternate bandwagon is closer to Hellheart. So if Hellheart gets a lot of votes I'll have to see who is closest in votes to him. Still too early to tell.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 29 Apr 2014, 11:52:59

Okay, let's Convert Visigoth > sphenodont tonight.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 13:57:28

Ozymandias wrote:Okay, let's Convert Visigoth > sphenodont tonight.

Seconded.

For the greater good.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 29 Apr 2014, 14:01:05

So is Zark planning to retract his Hellheart vote?

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 14:11:43

I think so. I missed a blurb from Hellheart about the poking. I think it's a honeypot.

Will c/p later.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Ozymandias » 29 Apr 2014, 15:21:02

Did not expect Smirker's Vig to have a shorter cooldown than Admetus' power.

Oh well, good luck fellas!

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby FurinMirado » 29 Apr 2014, 15:26:19

Well shit. At least Smirker believes ICB to be Human. You might be able to lone wolf it to victory.

Still looking at:

convert - Visigoth --> sphenodont

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 15:58:28

Oh god Dammit.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 16:01:13

I am not lying in the day thread, I really feel like shit. Have voted, will officially say visi - sphenodont here in case more shenanigans happen, and will occasionally monitor from tablet tonight.

Help me think of a good recruit for me tomorrow.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby FurinMirado » 29 Apr 2014, 16:14:42

A recruit to add to your board? I'm not even sure. I'm fighting just to avoid the lynch today. Unfortunately my kitchen is still a mess from dinner so I'm going to have to step away soon.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby FurinMirado » 29 Apr 2014, 16:20:10

It looks like another night where I don't get to bed early. We're looking good so far with a ton of votes on blindsniper but with just under 2 hours remaining anything could happen.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 16:31:40

Hellheart is pushing you hard because he's trying to make himself a bad choice for conversion. It probably won't go far today (crossing my fingers), but tomorrow may be a different story.

They are convinced that sphenodont or Smirker will be tonight's victim.

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FurinMirado
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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby FurinMirado » 29 Apr 2014, 16:57:50

I'll do what I can to survive, but if I have to stand up against the Marmalade Sandwich then I'm screwed. I hate to say it, but converting me was not a good idea. If I don't get lynched now I'll get lynched in the next day or so.

Hopefully you and Visi can survive. Plus you've got the Night 10 conversion I believe.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 17:00:22

Role claim. Hellheart will back off.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 17:01:03

Should give you one more day, which gives me at least 3.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby FurinMirado » 29 Apr 2014, 17:04:16

I've already thought up one good point so I'd like to try that first. I need to act like a GA that doesn't want to role claim until the absolute last second.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby FurinMirado » 29 Apr 2014, 17:19:14

We know I was still Human on Round 5 so there had to be a good reason why Hellheart would be led astray. Good thing I looked at a calendar.

For anyone that reads this in the future: I absolutely refuse to let my social life suffer just so I can post more in this game. You should not expect me to post a lot on Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

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FurinMirado
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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby FurinMirado » 29 Apr 2014, 17:33:10

If I survive today I wonder if Hellheart will want me in your super secret forum. Seems possible if he believes I'm the GA.

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Re: Night 8: Maybe one more will do it

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 29 Apr 2014, 17:39:35

FurinMirado wrote:If I survive today I wonder if Hellheart will want me in your super secret forum. Seems possible if he believes I'm the GA.

I will either bring you in tomorrow, or we will flip someone from in there on night 10. That way or connection in the can survive longer than my death.

I am not posting anywhere but here tonight, lest I be expected to make a furin - related move.


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