The Twins

Why does everyone find this creepy?
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 16:21:01

I'd be really surprised if the current 2-vote wagons stayed like this, but if by some crazy miracle it's a giant 2-way tie at EOD and we're both still at Zero Votes, I say we chance it and not push anyone to 3.

If we wind up with a massively broad 2-vote wagon with nobody at 3 and it's 30-ish minutes left I'd say we need to move our individual votes to two separate targets and force everyone to move to 3-vote wagons. We can then double-snipe defensively if we absolutely need to, but hopefully we'll stay at single votes and there will be a nice set of wagons at that point.



Edit:
And as soon as I say that, here comes Rictus after me. Yeesh.


Edit2: So, just in case, who do we like?

Current list 2-vote wagons:
    Admetus
    Clearasday
    Iron Clad Burrito
    RaveBomb
    San
    Smirker

Simon's also easy and within reasonable striking distance thanks to Antipater's current singleton.

If not Simon, then maybe ICB+Smirker both pushed to 3? Would help counter any accusation that we wanted Meta4/Rekard pushed to protect ICB/Smirker.


Edit3: Taking revenge on Rictus is also possible since Visi's got an initial vote on him as well, but I'm not sure sniping purely out of revenge-vote spite is a worthwhile use of what limited tolerance the others have left for us.


Edit4: Hooray, Max puts CAD to 3. Neutral/non-read in my book, so not great but also not as bad as putting a human-read up there.

Edit5: Annnnd ICB shoots WAY up on my wolf-ometer. He's complaining about drawing heat when he's in a 5-way tie for second-place with *2* votes? Really? Someone's sweating bullets and trying to head off the lynch a bit too early...

Edit6: Orrrr ICB is a human with lynch immunity and is deliberately trying to trap people. Damn you to hell for your paranoia-inducing, second-guess-causing game, neckless! <3
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 17:25:10

Better warm up that phone PJ, the chances of us having to decide who lives and who dies seems to grow with every passing moment.

Which is frustrating, since it's literally doing the Network's job for them. I think if we can we may want to try and go with a not-immediately-obvious choice.


Edit: And ICB puts me to two.

Edit2: Three non-voters at the moment: Simon, Meta4 and Blindsniper83. All of which have recently declared their eagerness for our death. A dog-pile from all 3 puts me to 5. That means we can push a 2-voter to 1 vote ahead of me, but with that many people involved I'd bet there's vote manipulation so I'd *really* prefer a 2-vote margin to be safe (since that gives us a tie if our bonus votes get blocked somehow). CAD's the too-obvious target so I'd really rather not gun him down tonight.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 17:34:06

And spheno puts me to 3. Oh look, tied for the lead out of nowhere with half an hour to go. Yet again. :P

Edit: And crap, you're already on CAD so even going with him only get +3 rather than +4.

Well, that makes every current 2-vote wagon a viable alternative. Current options:

Admetus
RaveBomb
San
Smirker

Smirker's voting for RaveBomb and is almost certain to switch to defend himself, so he's out.
I like San's RP, but he's not going to be able to switch to defend himself.
RaveBomb's voting San and could probably switch to defend himself.
Admetus is voting CAD, but his historical availability is iffy. Might not switch to defend himself.


San is probably the safest target? Will start pondering short twinspeak for it.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 18:03:28

We might be okay? Only 5 total votes on me by my count, should be 6 on CAD. That gives us a 1-vote margin to avoid a conflip, or a 2-vote margin to avoid certain death.

I hate that we're forced onto the obvious target though.


Day Four tally:

Clearasday : 6 : That PJ, Admetus, MaxFrost, Okaros
Okaros : 5 4 : Rictus, Iron Clad Burrito, sphenodont, Simple_Simon,7-zark-7
Admetus : 2 : Stigmata, Clearasday
San : 2 : RaveBomb, Hellheart
Smirker : 2 : San, Ozymandias
7-zark-7 : 1 : twdog
Iron Clad Burrito : 1 : FurinMirado
RaveBomb : 1 : Smirker
Rictus : 1 : Visigoth
Simple_Simon : 1 : Antipater
Visigoth : 1 : dferrantino
Last edited by Okaros on 24 Apr 2014, 18:20:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 18:15:56

Wait, no, only 4 on me. Zark's snipe was after the buzzer.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 18:32:36

The suspense!
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 18:38:13

And we're alive, whoo.

Though I'm going to immediately ask that someone vig us. Five days straight of this is ridiculous.


Edit: I'll swap avatars once you do. No rush.
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 24 Apr 2014, 18:54:42

Just got back. Much catching up to do. Any way you can sum it up?

Also, changing Avatar.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 19:02:15

That PJ wrote:Just got back. Much catching up to do. Any way you can sum it up?

Also, changing Avatar.


It was the expected EOD bum rush on me. And today the same crew is leading the charge yet again.

Zark tried and failed to snipe me, but it didn't matter either way.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 19:03:27

Also, on this note:

*Ryvvn was at the top of our "incredibly dangerous if Networked, okay if he dies on Day One" list, so while our vote was defensive on Day One, we didn't lose any sleep over it and he was someone we deliberately pushed for the lynch.


Much respect, sir. We only murdered you horribly because you were too damn good. :)
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 24 Apr 2014, 19:36:17

Actually, everyone who has been shot by out cleverly-redirected bullet has been an excellent player:

- Ryvvn
- DOM
- rekard*
- CAD

Which, honestly, is another point to our wolf-is-behind-this theory. Time to start sifting the data. But ICB's right, we do need to share some intel today, especially since some more people are actually interested in listening).

...And in fairness, the 'just vig us now' thing was a tad dramatic :) But so was my rant, so I guess we're square.

*My bad, we didn't have anything to do with rekard's death. Well, except our non-snipe votes. But I don't think that one's on us.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 20:06:32

I'd love it if I didn't have to spend all this time and effort smashing down Simon's red herrings. :flail:
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 24 Apr 2014, 20:25:40

Okaros wrote:I'd love it if I didn't have to spend all this time and effort smashing down Simon's red herrings. :flail:

Me too, though I'm done for the night, myself. Let him keep crazy-ranting. Refute, then redirect it into meaningful analysis, which will highlight exactly how ridiculous his obsession with us is.

Man, we get more dead with each passing vote. We are the walking dead. Speaking of--since you mentioned themed games you wanted to run--I would love to run a zombie Wolf game where the roles are inverted. The zombies are the residents and they're trying to find the humans (wolves) in their midst. They lose if humans reach parity (as is right and proper in a zombie apocalypse). Thoughts?

I'm glad our analysis is out in the open now, actually. As fun as it is to discuss, it's nicer to feel like we're actually contributing something before our unavoidable demise.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 20:34:36

The problem is, the turn towards focusing on analysis/reads is *too early* for the game right now. Without the deaths from the maul to help things along we're all still searching for a needle in a haystack.

I think *at best* we can pull a single Network member out of the voting history on us, and that's only if the focus on us finally stops today. That leaves 3 more out there today to find. If the lynch keeps targeting us, it just gives more and more room for them to hide in.

(Of course, if we *do* manage to convince people that we're not networked and sail out of this, we become a far more tempting target to pick up since nobody will want to revisit the Twins-are-networked arguments anytime soon).

Ideally I think I'd start looking for a heavy analytical bend around day 7 or 9? We barely have any ideal of what powers are in play right now and we've only had 4 shots at finding one of two or three wolves inside of 26(!) candidates.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 20:49:23

Incidentally...

If you're an original Networker and have been playing me all this time, I'm going to tip my hat to you in awe (doubly-so if you faked phone troubles to avoid us sniping your partner-in-crime San :lol: ).
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 21:14:57

PJ, if you're going to respond to Simon's "How do you know Okaros is 100% human?" question (I recommend you ignore since I've already answered), please note the approach I took with my answer about the start of the game.

Perhaps I'm being over-clever, but I'm a little proud of that word-bending. If there *were* "a note from the GM" I would of course be forbidden from discussing its contents by the rules, but nothing stops me from vaguely hinting that that could theoretically be the reason. :)

I assume you received identical role/power instructions to mine, so unless you want to get us killed for blatant lying you should have the same level of certainty with my start-of-game humanity, at least in public. :P
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 21:29:59

Barkeep, can PJ and I openly discuss the heads/tail minigame and which side( s ) we should each choose in here?
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Re: The Twins

Postby necklessone » 25 Apr 2014, 03:09:05

Okaros wrote:Barkeep, can PJ and I openly discuss the heads/tail minigame and which side( s ) we should each choose in here?

Yes.

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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 04:06:01

Early morning catch-up. Addressing a few things in no particular order:

1. I will try my best to never, ever lean on real life reasons for in-game behavior. I mentioned it in here because it's important for planning purposes, but there's a reason I try not to talk about that sort of thing in the day thread. At best, I'd be using RL to garner sympathy; at worst, if I'm lying, I'm basically cheapening anything I ever say about RL. I may slip up sometimes and mention things in public (not sure if I have at this point), but I am making a conscious effort not to do so. I just don't think it's a good way to play the game.

2. I'm not Network, but I have to admit that if I were, I'd probably be going about this more or less the same way. It's probably the best thing a Networked one of us could do 'Welp, I'm going down, time to cause as much chaos as possible!' So I applaud you if you're Network, as well. I'd like to think you'd at least tell me since we'd still be going down in a blaze of glory together, which is why I think you're human. You've done some pretty epic backstabs to win in the past, but at this point we're here for the fun, because we're both absolutely going to die in this game.

3. Yeah, objectively speaking, 4 out of 26 is not a huge margin to work with. We're at 4 wolves, 4 dead, and 18 (!) humans. I will laugh if the wolves are dferrantino, twdog, Visigoth, and Ravebomb. They've said almost nothing between them this whole game and could just be quietly watching in astonishment.

4. I almost blurted out the obvious way to 'game' the coin flip, but caught Necklessone's rule on the second read. It should probably be bolded? Or maybe it's just me. Because the obvious solution is for everybody to pick one side of the coin flip and boom, we're done! No additional wolves tomorrow night! But alas. All we can really say is: So, we picking the same to try and swing it ever-so-slightly in our favor, or splitting it to be a neutral effect?

So, since analysis is kind of bad right now, here's something else we can propose to the day thread: We are a loaded gun. Nobody wants to trust us to pick a target, and we don't like one being cheaply arranged for us, so why doesn't <X person> determine who we are both voting on today? We won't vote on each other, but otherwise, go ahead. We will be your personal semi-vig-lynch for today.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 06:09:09

To explain my mildly-cryptic comment:

On Day Two, Network-Smirker wouldn't want to push break a tie like that to push a human unless there was a Networker under threat. At the time, the people tied with 3 votes were DOM, you, San, and Hellheart (who had been pushed to 3 only a few minutes prior).

On Day Two, there are only two Networkers so there can only be one other in that pile if this is true:

DOM died and is human.
If you're the Networker there's no need to push, as he can wait for you or someone else to get pushed, tie it up, then leverage the vote cannon for victory.

That leaves either San or Hellheart as the potential other original Networker...'

Hellheart should know/have caught this, but he conspicuously failed to mention that part in his discussion. :P
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 06:29:11

How very, very interesting.

Man, I'd hate for the one person kind of defending us to actually be a Networker.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 06:56:32

That PJ wrote:How very, very interesting.

Man, I'd hate for the one person kind of defending us to actually be a Networker.


His defense of us is actually one of the reasons I'm mildly suspicious of him now (as I pointed out in the day thread): The timing and reasoning drift towards "too good to be true" territory.
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 07:00:16

Okaros wrote:To explain my mildly-cryptic comment:

On Day Two, Network-Smirker wouldn't want to push break a tie like that to push a human unless there was a Networker under threat. At the time, the people tied with 3 votes were DOM, you, San, and Hellheart (who had been pushed to 3 only a few minutes prior).

On Day Two, there are only two Networkers so there can only be one other in that pile if this is true:

DOM died and is human.
If you're the Networker there's no need to push, as he can wait for you or someone else to get pushed, tie it up, then leverage the vote cannon for victory.

That leaves either San or Hellheart as the potential other original Networker...'

Hellheart should know/have caught this, but he conspicuously failed to mention that part in his discussion. :P

Ok, I found a hole in your analysis.

At the time Smirker voted, necklessone had just posted this:
necklessone wrote:2 hours. Powers and votes, folks.

DastardlyOldMan : 3 : MaxFrost, Visigoth, twdog
That PJ : 3 : dferrantino, Antipater, Meta4
rekard : 2 : That PJ, RaveBomb
San : 2 : Stigmata, Hellheart
dferrantino : 1 : FurinMirado
FurinMirado : 1 : DastardlyOldMan
Hellheart : 1 : rekard
Meta4 : 1 : San
Okaros : 1 : Ozymandias
sphenodont : 1 : Admetus
Visigoth : 1 : Okaros

No vote recorded (8) : 7-zark-7, Blindsniper83, Clearasday, Iron Clad Burrito, Rictus, Simple_Simon, Smirker, sphenodont

After which Blindsniper increased the count to 2 on Hellheart. Smirker then pushed DOM to 4 (a fairly safe wagon at that time) before Simple tied us up at 4 each. But I'm not really seeing the second vote on Hellheart, although I will agree a Simon-Smirker collaboration at that point seems very unlikely. Then Ozy switches to Hellheart, putting him at 3 (after our response to his question about PMs), and he stays at 3 (but is vote-changed up to 4, which ties him with us, San, and DOM).

San isn't at 3 until way after Smirker's vote, and 4 until sphenodont posts at ~8 til EOD.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 07:10:50

Early morning brain-fart, thanks for catching that before I carried that over into the day thread. It would've been embarassing. :)

My point/reasoning is still sound, though:

With you and DOM at 3, why push DOM to 4 instead of pushing someone else? Given that 4 votes was essentially lethal on Day One it's easy to think it would be lethal again. San and Hellheart are the more reasonable "lets tie it up" wagons, yet he opted to try and railroad DOM instead.

*If* he's a networker, the reason to do that is to protect one of the 2-vote wagons, and Hellheart had *just* been pushed to.


At the moment I think the Day Two Smirker play is a human move (it's a pretty huge mistake for a Networker), which means he's most likely a convert. But I want to poke Hellheart (which I've done) and see his reaction, and I want to poke the people voting for Smirker to see which way they lean.
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 07:23:03

Okaros wrote:Early morning brain-fart, thanks for catching that before I carried that over into the day thread. It would've been embarassing. :)

My point/reasoning is still sound, though:

With you and DOM at 3, why push DOM to 4 instead of pushing someone else? Given that 4 votes was essentially lethal on Day One it's easy to think it would be lethal again. San and Hellheart are the more reasonable "lets tie it up" wagons, yet he opted to try and railroad DOM instead.

*If* he's a networker, the reason to do that is to protect one of the 2-vote wagons, and Hellheart had *just* been pushed to.


At the moment I think the Day Two Smirker play is a human move (it's a pretty huge mistake for a Networker), which means he's most likely a convert. But I want to poke Hellheart (which I've done) and see his reaction, and I want to poke the people voting for Smirker to see which way they lean.

Yeah, there are some unlikely Network moves for Smirker there, I agree. Not as damning to Hellheart, though (except in terms of missing that point in Smirker's favor).

We should probably be looking at the folks who pushed San and Hellheart on Day 2, since they were effectively giving us more targets to shoot at. Blind and Ozy pushed Hellheart (and a vote manip. that may be from rekard-and-Ozy), sphenodont and ICB pushed San... I don't know, it almost feels like except for Simple keeping us tied up, all these wagons kinda made themselves.

Which makes me turn my eye to dferrantino. He was the second vote pushing me on Day 2, keeping the pressure that rekard was already starting (though part of that suggests Blonde, not Network). He goes Meta4 and Smirker near EOD 3, keeping them tied with us... which I guess is a non-Network move? It's a silly move because he was already tied for the lynch. He could've nudged us, simple, or ICB into the lead. But maybe he didn't want to invoke someone's wrath. But then Day 4 he thinks DOM is alive and then switches to Visi. This would be consistent with the 'not paying attention' vibe he's been giving off. Is he usually this quiet?

I don't know. I think I talked myself out of dferrantino. Again.
Last edited by That PJ on 25 Apr 2014, 07:32:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 07:27:00

Do you mean dferr's struck-through "vote" on Day Four for DOM? That wasn't a retraction, he was making a joke/reference to DOM's asking to die in a conversion game. He made the post just like it is, he didn't edit out the DOM vote after the fact.
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 07:32:06

Okaros wrote:Do you mean dferr's struck-through "vote" on Day Four for DOM? That wasn't a retraction, he was making a joke/reference to DOM's asking to die in a conversion game. He made the post just like it is, he didn't edit out the DOM vote after the fact.

And now I feel dense. Thanks for clearing that up
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 07:35:02

Hey barkeep! Will you be posting a list of the coinflip winners tomorrow? Or do we get the joy of wondering if the lynch votes are valid at all? :D


(I suspect the answer will be "yes, the list will be posted", which means we should pick a side and both vote for it, PJ. If we split one of us gets immunity but the other is an easy way around that. We'll want to take our chances and win/fail together.)
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Re: The Twins

Postby necklessone » 25 Apr 2014, 07:36:07

Okaros wrote:Hey barkeep! Will you be posting a list of the coinflip winners tomorrow? Or do we get the joy of wondering if the lynch votes are valid at all? :D


(I suspect the answer will be "yes, the list will be posted", which means we should pick a side and both vote for it, PJ. If we split one of us gets immunity but the other is an easy way around that. We'll want to take our chances and win/fail together.)


Yes, there will be a list. Don't want to deal with a day where X% of the votes are invalid.

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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 07:44:46

I forgot that it's lynch immunity as well. That would be veeeery nice for us, considering the general trend of the game.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 07:48:41

And neckless has explicitly ruled out third faction/sociopaths, so I can end my idle speculation about Admetus I guess. :lol:
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 08:08:01

Okaros wrote:And neckless has explicitly ruled out third faction/sociopaths, so I can end my idle speculation about Admetus I guess. :lol:

Perhaps I'm missing something, but he's ruled out third factions, not personal victories. Could there not still be a human (or Network) running around with a personal objective?

Also, wanted to draw your attention back to an earlier proposal I made. What do you think of putting our voting power in the hands of the day thread, perhaps one or a small group we have a bit of confidence in and let them choose where our 4 votes go? I realize that's sort of absolving ourselves of responsibility, but people don't seem to think we can vote responsibly. I say challenge them to choose better. ICB wants our massive voting bloc used for good? Show us where to use it.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 08:17:57

Sure, people could still have personal victories. I expect there's at least one or two more out there, given that we have one, but I think they're not worth too much time/effort to think about if they're not a third faction or sociopath.


I don't think turning over control of the vote cannon to other people is useful. By giving responsibility for our votes to someone else we're giving up the ability for other people to analyze our votes. One of the primary problems is that we have no useful voting record due to being backed into a corner all the time. Giving our votes to someone else fixes the "backed into the corner" part but simply further aggravates the "no useful voting record" part.

That's why I'm not promising in the Day thread that we won't use the cannon for our own purposes. I *want* people to give us a chance to vote on our own and pass judgement on our humanity based on how we choose to use or not-use the cannon, but the instant we start artificially limiting ourselves it takes that away.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 08:26:46

To be clear, though: I don't think we should use the cannon except in self-defense or in order to eliminate a Networker.

Simon remains *really* tempting, but if we're not at threat I could see splitting up and pushing Simon and Smirker today, particularly if they're tied for the lead and we're one vote behind.

Edit: Or alternatively, one Simon vote and a throwaway. Simon's willingness to partially role-claim has me backing off slightly from "blatant wolf" to "probably blatant wolf". Still on the fence a bit about Smirker, but leaning towards "Night 2 converted wolf" atm.
Last edited by Okaros on 25 Apr 2014, 08:30:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 08:30:29

Good, sound points.

To your speculation of targets, then, Simple and Smirker are definitely sitting towards the top. I put my cards on the table in the day thread today, already (though Smirker's risen on my suspect-o-meter). We could certainly split the difference on them.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 09:35:59

I will be tweaking a number of powers early on Round 6 for the sake of continuing game balance. If I do not contact you by the mid point in the day, I will not be touching your power.


I'll be curious to see what happens to us power-wise tomorrow (assuming we're alive).

The powers shown "in the wild" have been few and far between so far, which makes me wonder if there are lots of one-shot powers out there, or if there are perhaps a lot of restrictions hampering people from making use of them.

Based on Ryvvn's and rekards powers I've been assuming that our +2 bonus votes were fairly middle-of-the-road power-wise (the private communication forum is a whole other bag of exploding worms), but if those have been on the high end of things it's possible that other powers have been going unused due to not being able to have an impact.

Whether we go untouched or not should speak to the intended overall power level for powers. Either way, we can probably expect to see more power usages post-tweak as people are either less intimidated by our vote cannon or are more able/willing to use their own powers.
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 09:43:23

Okaros wrote:
I will be tweaking a number of powers early on Round 6 for the sake of continuing game balance. If I do not contact you by the mid point in the day, I will not be touching your power.


I'll be curious to see what happens to us power-wise tomorrow (assuming we're alive).

The powers shown "in the wild" have been few and far between so far, which makes me wonder if there are lots of one-shot powers out there, or if there are perhaps a lot of restrictions hampering people from making use of them.

Based on Ryvvn's and rekards powers I've been assuming that our +2 bonus votes were fairly middle-of-the-road power-wise (the private communication forum is a whole other bag of exploding worms), but if those have been on the high end of things it's possible that other powers have been going unused due to not being able to have an impact.

Whether we go untouched or not should speak to the intended overall power level for powers. Either way, we can probably expect to see more power usages post-tweak as people are either less intimidated by our vote cannon or are more able/willing to use their own powers.

Concur.

I would not be shocked to see our combined vote brought to 3 instead of 4. I think the anticipated counter-balance was that we'd be reluctant to use it and reveal ourselves, which we kind of blew out of the water very early. So now we just have this known vote cannon instead of 'someone out there can boost votes!' And honestly, that might've been a perfectly fine counterbalance if Day 1--and our decision to deal with it as we did--had gone differently.

It'll give us an idea of scope to see whether we're adjusted, no doubt.
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 12:01:18

So I sought out a coin and flipped it. Heads. Good enough for you?
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 12:06:42

That PJ wrote:So I sought out a coin and flipped it. Heads. Good enough for you?


Works for me.


Edit: PM to Neckless sent to lock it in.
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 14:48:56

Holy crap, Simon, that was an astonishingly useful post.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 14:56:02

That PJ wrote:Holy crap, Simon, that was an astonishingly useful post.


Really? I read it as an extremely wolfy post. You'll notice he draws absolutely zero conclusions. It's purely throwing random data out.

Additionally, he simply tracks total posts and makes no effort to even vaguely indicate anything about them. If he really wanted to indicate who was noisy/quiet in antagonizing/supporting us, he would have counted posts that involve us or involve our eventual lynch victim.

The one mildly useful bit I think we can use out of the garbage is looking at who changed posting frequency after day 2.


This is a classic wolf ploy and a *very* Simon-as-wolf behavior.
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 14:59:35

Okaros wrote:
That PJ wrote:Holy crap, Simon, that was an astonishingly useful post.


Really? I read it as an extremely wolfy post. You'll notice he draws absolutely zero conclusions. It's purely throwing random data out.

Additionally, he simply tracks total posts and makes no effort to even vaguely indicate anything about them. If he really wanted to indicate who was noisy/quiet in antagonizing/supporting us, he would have counted posts that involve us or involve our eventual lynch victim.

The one mildly useful bit I think we can use out of the garbage is looking at who changed posting frequency after day 2.


This is a classic wolf ploy and a *very* Simon-as-wolf behavior.

I have no experience with Simon-as-wolf, but it is a very statistical way of looking at the situation. Something I'd do if I had more time.

No, he doesn't draw any conclusions, except to leave us with one of four pools to consider from depending on how we want to think about the matter. Which admittedly is nearly half the player base. His core thought--that we need to pick one--is horribly flawed, I think. There's probably a wolf in each of them. But it puts logic behind a lot of the things we've just been kind of blabbing about, and it does so in a way that generally reinforces how we'd been feeling.

So, I like it. And it could be a Network plot because he wants to seem useful--that would be an exceptionally smart move as a Network person. But I still appreciate the post.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 15:03:52

That PJ wrote:So, I like it. And it could be a Network plot because he wants to seem useful--that would be an exceptionally smart move as a Network person. But I still appreciate the post.


Throwing up a bunch of data and not actually doing anything with it is a wonderful way to earn human "cred" without actually putting your own butt on the line. You leave it up to others to draw conclusions so that when things go wrong and humans get lynched as a result of "your" data you can simply say "Nuh uh, I never said you should lynch so-and-so!"

It's the analytic equivalent of handing over your lynch vote to someone else and it's a *wonderful* tool for the wolves because everyone will draw their own (probably incorrect) conclusions and thank the wolf for it. :)
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 15:04:56

Another interesting experiment with his data is to not exclude doubles, indeed to focus on them, based on the theory that a wolf would want flexibility in how they prod us. That brings sphenodont, and Ozy on the list of "loud" players, and Rictus, Antipater, and dferrantino on the quiet side.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 15:05:14

But with that said, we might actually be able to split our vote today. Given our difference of opinion here, do you want to tentatively vote Smirker while I vote Simon?
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 15:08:02

Okaros wrote:
That PJ wrote:So, I like it. And it could be a Network plot because he wants to seem useful--that would be an exceptionally smart move as a Network person. But I still appreciate the post.


Throwing up a bunch of data and not actually doing anything with it is a wonderful way to earn human "cred" without actually putting your own butt on the line. You leave it up to others to draw conclusions so that when things go wrong and humans get lynched as a result of "your" data you can simply say "Nuh uh, I never said you should lynch so-and-so!"

It's the analytic equivalent of handing over your lynch vote to someone else and it's a *wonderful* tool for the wolves because everyone will draw their own (probably incorrect) conclusions and thank the wolf for it. :)

Data is data. No doubt, it earns him cred--I am an absolutely sucker for statistics--but it doesn't absolve him of trying to kill us. Repeatedly. And still doing so, by his own admission.

But now I can wrap my head around why certain players have been pinging my radar, or have been conspicuously absent.

The stigmata thing is really odd, for instance.

But if anything, I think it reinforces that Smirker and Simple is the way to go tonight.
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 15:08:59

Okaros wrote:But with that said, we might actually be able to split our vote today. Given our difference of opinion here, do you want to tentatively vote Smirker while I vote Simon?

Exactly what I was going to suggest. We can do the coordination and I'll happily take the Smirker angle.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 15:13:39

That PJ wrote:
Okaros wrote:But with that said, we might actually be able to split our vote today. Given our difference of opinion here, do you want to tentatively vote Smirker while I vote Simon?

Exactly what I was going to suggest. We can do the coordination and I'll happily take the Smirker angle.



Not sure if we should vote early then or wait until EOD. EIther way I think we should be around and waiting to snipe at EOD.

My one concern with Simon atm is that his bully/apology posts at the start of the day *scream* power activation, but with no idea what it could be I don't know what to prepare for. :lol:
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Re: The Twins

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 15:14:50

Okaros wrote:
That PJ wrote:
Okaros wrote:But with that said, we might actually be able to split our vote today. Given our difference of opinion here, do you want to tentatively vote Smirker while I vote Simon?

Exactly what I was going to suggest. We can do the coordination and I'll happily take the Smirker angle.



Not sure if we should vote early then or wait until EOD. EIther way I think we should be around and waiting to snipe at EOD.

My one concern with Simon atm is that his bully/apology posts at the start of the day *scream* power activation, but with no idea what it could be I don't know what to prepare for. :lol:

If it's like the ol' piss taker from Hot Fuzz, it's a vote penalty.

I think we should vote now and not leave everyone breathless. Although I should be around for sniping, if needed.
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Re: The Twins

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 15:16:22

That PJ wrote:If it's like the ol' piss taker from Hot Fuzz, it's a vote penalty.


That's my guess, but who knows? :flail:

If it comes down to a coinflip between Simon and Smirker I guess I'm okay with that.

I think we should vote now and not leave everyone breathless. Although I should be around for sniping, if needed.


Okay, give me a few minutes and we can do this. Will post when I'm ready.
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