Night 4. New Moon.

In the night, you strike.
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 13:19:46

That PJ wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Seer Okaros --> Blindsniper

That's madness, which I chalk up to being too involved. Blindsniper is the overlap in your two scenarios and you guys have mysteriously put off Seering him just about every single night because something more pressing comes up. He is absolutely the nutjob. The only one, as far as I can tell via analysis. Seer him and get it over with.

Unless I can convince Vampiria to do it. Hmm.

Alright, I can go along with that.

Seer Blindsniper --> Okaros

There has to be more than one Nutjob unless one team's getting powers and none of the others are. Group of people, remember?
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 13:21:01

MaxFrost wrote:There very well could be a 3rd possibility. Nobody in this team is converted by another. At least not yet.

The problem is you guys no longer believe anything I'm saying, which makes sense considering the type of game this is.

Regarding the shift ThatPJ, it happened when I voted for you, then quickly moved off to save simple_simon. That triggered a ton of suspicion, rightly so, because I moved too quickly before vote close. That'd set off flags for anyone, and it's why I ended up getting tied in the vote.

Odds are somebody's been converted. That's just good logic at this point. You'll be verified or cleared depending on if the alarm bells go off once you're out in perma-dead land. Regardless, it's not a super-constructive use of our time, because there's no way you can do anything but deny it. I know that for a fact, being converted myself. Original team gets to know nothing.

The real question is who, on Day 2, the team of MEM-Ravebomb-Rictus-and whoever thought was the best addition to their number. Which is predicated on some assumptions, admittedly, but it's where we're at.

...And about the vote, yeah, I flipped back and saw that was an apparent miscommunication here. It looked like coordination with sphenodont, but that doesn't jive with our other theories.
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 13:25:23

Hellheart wrote:That last one makes no sense unless they got both of their Nutjobs with Furin, which is entirely possible.

I just don't know why they're going after you in that case. Is one faction lying to the other about your possibly being a sociopath? How does that make ANY sense given that you know who the wolves are and that you voted with Stigmata?

Plus, they can't exactly coordinate this because they can't PM and talking about it openly on the wolf board is probably a really awful idea.

------

I don't think we're being betrayed as a team because this is the only time I'm truly vulnerable, so going after me would make more sense. I'm kind of worried that I'll be mauled here, but in addition to being a dick move it's kind of ridiculous overall. Am I really that dangerous, compared to somebody like Zark who is both better with PM's and on a much stronger team at the moment?

Well, Zark's been higher on their priority list, so there's that. But Vampiria is extraordinarily weak right now. As far as we know, they're the only ones who've missed a conversion. It's entirely possible there are two people converted out of it (me+someone), which would be kind of hilarious. twdog had some extensive PMs going with spheno previously. Though personally I think he'd try to bring in Zark first.

I do want to address one thing that I tried to mention before. You seem to have a lot of theories built around 'nutjobs', plural. I don't think there's a nutjob for each faction. That'd require that one team gets paired with a wolf nutjob, which seem imbalanced in some way. Everything rekard has said has indicated 'THE' nutjob; just one. He also told us there would be vigilantes. I really think there's only one nutjob out to crush any and all factions.
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 13:28:38

Ugh, I wish I could talk to Okaros about this. He's got it all charted out by now :P

So there's 4 "unknown" players. 2 were invulnerable to conversion from the start. That would have to be Okaros and the Nutjob in the single-Nutjob theory.

Oh, fuck. Maybe I see.

I think I'm approaching this the wrong way. Got to take a look at the periphery. How does conversion immunity work?

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby rekard » 23 May 2014, 13:33:15

As days keep passing by, immunity % increases.

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 13:35:39

Are there factors that can change either the rate of immunity growth or the chances that any given player will become immune on a given day?

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Simple_Simon » 23 May 2014, 13:36:23

Hellheart wrote:That last one makes no sense unless they got both of their Nutjobs with Furin, which is entirely possible.

I just don't know why they're going after you in that case. Is one faction lying to the other about your possibly being a sociopath? How does that make ANY sense given that you know who the wolves are and that you voted with Stigmata?

Plus, they can't exactly coordinate this because they can't PM and talking about it openly on the wolf board is probably a really awful idea.

------

I don't think we're being betrayed as a team because this is the only time I'm truly vulnerable, so going after me would make more sense. I'm kind of worried that I'll be mauled here, but in addition to being a dick move it's kind of ridiculous overall. Am I really that dangerous, compared to somebody like Zark who is both better with PM's and on a much stronger team at the moment?


It's speculation bro, I don't have a god damned clue what's going on around here anymore. I can't make heads or tails of what MEM and Meta4 are on about. All I know is they're wolves, but they're also probably on different factions. Those factions would be aware they're pushing for me (individually) and would be okay with that. Is it because they know I am Nightis?

Also you're assuming that all the factions have been silenced. What if they haven't ALL been silenced? This could easily be a reward given to a team that has nailed it's nutjob (furin, possibly, and his lover(?) if such a thing exists).

Any team that nailed it's conspiracy theorist is in a strong position, nightis really isn't in a strong position and we're still losing at least a person a day. I'm simply positing that there are two, maybe three teams out there that want us all gone.

Why me over you? Well you could be one of them? How the hell am I to know?
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 13:43:23

The voting yesterday didn't suggest a strong team alliance. It was opportunity voting by two factions and a Nutjob, or it was one faction gunning for us (or imagined Sociopath MaxFrost) with a Nutjob. Or a team simply looking to protect Aldax and finding somebody they might actually be able to push through to lynch over him.

Your vote for Meta4, who is virtually certain to not be on that team, may have sparked a temporary alliance though. Being a disruptive force in a team game has never helped anyone's life expectancy :lol:

-------

In any case, I don't particularly care who the mole is. I care about what team converted him because they know everything about us, but the identity of the actual mole is much less important until we near parity.

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 13:49:59

Hellheart wrote:In any case, I don't particularly care who the mole is. I care about what team converted him because they know everything about us, but the identity of the actual mole is much less important until we near parity.

In that case, it is almost certainly MEM's team. Strongly suspected to include Rictus, as well as either Antipater of Aldax.

Still haven't run the likelihood of which one is there. It would be strange for them contributed to a Max-Aldax bandwagon, though, so if they did it's Antipater by process of elimination.
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby MaxFrost » 23 May 2014, 14:08:58

Hrm.

MEM was a psyco.

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Simple_Simon » 23 May 2014, 14:13:31

MaxFrost wrote:Hrm.

MEM was a psyco.


Who'da thunk it?
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 14:19:14

Simple_Simon wrote:
MaxFrost wrote:Hrm.

MEM was a psyco.


Who'da thunk it?

Yeah, no kidding. So that makes Team 4 with Okaros. We were way off.

This is also kinda bad, because it means the maul is split between two faction teams with no arbiter. So meta4 and Okaros control the maul and, if behaving sanely, will aim to eliminate every other faction.

Starting with my current and former allies. :(
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 14:21:25

That PJ wrote:
Hellheart wrote:
That PJ wrote:Updated my chart.

37% likely to fail isn't all that bad, actually. Out of what, 13 people? And you probably know who the sociopaths probably are.

One more player immune from last time (total of 5). That means 3 conversions, since it means you're almost certainly the new immune player.

Those figures were given to Vampiria minus vampiria, so it's either 10 (if he counted me, which he shouldn't) or 11. *runs numbers* It's 11. Should've seen that. So, 4 immune. Which I assume means some immune folks got nailed.

Also, nice job Furin! We thoguht Okaros was the psycho. WE WERE WRONG.

Ugh, of course it's MEM. I knew it was one or the other. Fuck Okaros and his voting on his own every GD time. He wasted so much time on those reads.

I'm still extending the alliance offer because God knows we'll need the help.

-----

Am I wrong, or could we just eliminate the last actual humans and then kill both wolves?

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 14:36:55

PJ, can you do me a favor and vote to Seer Blindsniper --> Antipater? Blindsniper/Aldax is fine too, but I think a 2-nutjob theory is more likely than a 1-nutjob one.
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 14:57:26

If we have a mole, I'm almost certain it's not from Okaros' faction. It's from Meta4's faction. This is a quote from the PM Okaros sent me yesterday (IIRC I only paraphrased it but I could outright post it if it really matters):

-) Are you currently working with a traitor wolf? If so, naming them will make things much saner for both of us. Despite your trying to say otherwise, control of the maul control is key for everyone.


Now if want to go ahead and say I'm making up PM's go ahead, but the sane among us will realize that there's no reason for Okaros to ask that question if they have a mole here. It's a suspicious sort of question to ask at all, so it's not something he'd just throw in for believability. It's asked to help his charting because I was hard to peg. That makes sense in context.

That was on Day 3, after the alarm went off. So if I'm right and it is Meta4's faction, then Ravebomb or Admetus was in that faction.

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Simple_Simon » 23 May 2014, 15:15:52

Hellheart wrote:PJ, can you do me a favor and vote to Seer Blindsniper --> Antipater? Blindsniper/Aldax is fine too, but I think a 2-nutjob theory is more likely than a 1-nutjob one.


It's like that is it? :lol:
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Simple_Simon » 23 May 2014, 15:56:49

Shit I missed the window to get in another tie vote.

Welp.

I'm going to keep holding onto my vote (for self defense) until as late as possible. May as well keep a bad thing going bad right?

I'm open to suggestions of course.
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 16:54:12

Haven't looked at the day thread yet. Had to catch up with Vampiria. Latest news is that they're seering Blindsniper, so we can focus on someone else. I suggest we do Aldax --> Antipater.

The 'no possibly with Okaros' is interesting, but it places Ravebomb with meta4. So what's crazier: that Okaros would ask that question for believability, or that meta4 would tank his own chances at being lynched?

But yes, we just need parity with the other players. Wolf or human, doesn't matter, as long as one wolf is left.
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 17:02:37

Simple_Simon wrote:It's like that is it? :lol:

Well, you didn't change your vote, and you seem to like protecting Blindsniper quite a bit so I wasn't sure :P

Aldax --> Antipater is fine. I think two nutjobs sounds right to me given how Blindsniper's been behaving. If Blindsniper's the other nutjob and we kill him, worst case scenario I think for killing the wolves is all remaining humans share victory.

I don't want one wolf to be left. I want all of the wolves to be dead. We can only protect from the maul once - and we have NO IDEA who'll be mauled on top of that - and the maul will always favor the living wolf/wolves.

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 17:07:11

I don't have a true preference who gets lynched here, except I don't want Simon to get lynched.

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Simple_Simon » 23 May 2014, 17:16:00

Hellheart wrote:
Simple_Simon wrote:It's like that is it? :lol:

Well, you didn't change your vote, and you seem to like protecting Blindsniper quite a bit so I wasn't sure :P

Aldax --> Antipater is fine. I think two nutjobs sounds right to me given how Blindsniper's been behaving. If Blindsniper's the other nutjob and we kill him, worst case scenario I think for killing the wolves is all remaining humans share victory.

I don't want one wolf to be left. I want all of the wolves to be dead. We can only protect from the maul once - and we have NO IDEA who'll be mauled on top of that - and the maul will always favor the living wolf/wolves.


Seer : Aldax --> Antipater

Consider it done, all you have to do is ask. :?

I get that there is a certain amount of distrust building in this game. With conversions and nutjobs, psychopath and god knows what else rekard has in store for us it's hard to know for sure if your team is even your team anymore. I'm not sure if I can trust you either, but I won't slight you like that. If you have a moment's thought that I am a traitor bring it up to me straight up. Under handing things like that is only going to hurt our team. I'm a big-ish man like object I can take it.
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Simple_Simon » 23 May 2014, 17:16:29

Hellheart wrote:I don't have a true preference who gets lynched here, except I don't want Simon to get lynched.


Could take a shot at blindsniper?
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 17:19:42

With your wolf-hunting campaign earlier today, it would make more sense if you just voted for one. Voting Blindsniper might have him revenge-vote you if you become a candidate.

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 17:22:21

It's true. The paranoia in this game is off the charts. I'm betraying the vampires with a group who is being betrayed in a game where the betrayers have all been openly-but-kind-of-secretly betrayed... It's unreal. Kudos, rekard.

Still trying to figure out what vampires are doing. Their best moves are to kill spheno, convert spheno, or convert Okaros. Those latter two might be impossible, but by my count only 3 of 10 players are immune to conversion right now (and I'm one of them, I think, because I just got converted? Would make sense). Making the other two the nutjob (blindsniper) and the mysterious convert to Okaros or meta4's team; whoever isn't Max :) )

Honestly, if Okaros isn't immune--and he shouldn't be--they should go for him. But I doubt they will.

EDIT: Oh wait, there are 4 immune. Hmm. Maybe one of you is a traitor and immune after all.

Ah well. Time will tell.
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Simple_Simon » 23 May 2014, 17:26:36

Hellheart wrote:With your wolf-hunting campaign earlier today, it would make more sense if you just voted for one. Voting Blindsniper might have him revenge-vote you if you become a candidate.


You're right, I don't intend to. I was more questioning it as a viable option to you guys.

I'm still gun shy going near him because of the Ryvvn incident ...

Subject: Day 2 : Slow Bureaucracy

Ryvvn wrote:Simple Simon for pushing what I agree is a suspicious Blind wagon back to tie.

yes that means I'm currently placing a one-off when there are three leading wagons, but it's not too late for the yet-to-voters to bring this up to viability.


Just curious, you've been running the affiliation lists better than I, could it be a possibility that he's (was) with Ryvvn's team?
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Simple_Simon » 23 May 2014, 17:29:34

Do you want me on Meta4 or Okaros then?
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 17:31:55

Simple_Simon wrote:If you have a moment's thought that I am a traitor bring it up to me straight up. Under handing things like that is only going to hurt our team. I'm a big-ish man like object I can take it.

I think MaxFrost is the traitor. You die easily and people expect you to be an easy convert target. Nobody's going to take a 2nd look at MaxFrost and he's already established a reputation for being quiet.

I'm simply taking precautions because it's the smart thing to do. I don't expect you to outright betray us or to give us lip service and do something else.

----

I don't think that was a serious vote from Ryvvn. It actually aligns Ryvvn slightly more with the Okaros group, because it suggests that there wasn't a teammate at stake there. You don't basically name your teammates that early by doing something like that; you vote to fit an agenda and give a completely bullshit reason for it.

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 17:32:14

Simple_Simon wrote:Do you want me on Meta4 or Okaros then?

I don't know. Whichever one will die? :)
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 17:33:24

Meta4, with the caveat that if you switch off I'm totally killing you :lol:

If I'm a convert for either Okaros or Meta4's team that's basically committing suicide, because nobody's going to let Okaros live as a solo wolf for more than the one day it'll take to kill Blindsniper. If that.

The dual wolf setup really worries me because that's strong. A solo wolf is just a huge target, and that'll equalize things again. As the weakest team, we need to take the advantages away from the strongest teams.
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 17:34:10

sphenodont wrote:
twdog wrote:sphenodont


I am disappointed and hurt. Perhaps not so much by the swift turn, but more by your absolute lack of rationale. It would hurt less if someone hadn't completely shut me down and kept me from calling on my chess partners and more-or-less sequestering me all by my lonesome in my personal chamber, but we can only work with what we're given.

That seems like he's admitting no PMs. Guess we all got shutdown.
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Simple_Simon » 23 May 2014, 17:36:23

That PJ wrote:
Simple_Simon wrote:Do you want me on Meta4 or Okaros then?

I don't know. Whichever one will die? :)


Do we really want one remaining wolf, paired with an unknown team, controlling the maul this early in the game?

Pre-post edit ...

Hellheart wrote:Meta4, with the caveat that if you switch off I'm totally killing you :lol:

If I'm a convert for either Okaros or Meta4's team that's basically committing suicide, because nobody's going to let Okaros live as a solo wolf for more than the one day it'll take to kill Blindsniper. If that.

The dual wolf setup really worries me because that's strong. A solo wolf is just a huge target, and that'll equalize things again. As the weakest team, we need to take the advantages away from the strongest teams.


Roger, give me a couple of seconds and I'll plant there.
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 17:37:34

Anyone else getting the feeling that the remainder of spheno-meta4 team is waiting to snipe this thing?
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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 17:39:44

Max, you do still get a vote today, you know. It would be an excellent show of faith to help us take a hostile target down.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 17:43:54

PJ, can you get anyone else on your team on Meta4 before the day ends?

I am starting tomorrow with a vote for Okaros and will only vote for him or Blindsniper until both are dead.

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 17:45:56

Trying, but the only one not voting for him already is twdog.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 17:47:46

Antipater just retracted his vote from blind. Get ready.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 17:48:15

Yep, I just saw that.

The biggest problem is that Okaros' team probably won't budge to help us. With two wolves left, both teams will protect each other until they're the only ones left.

I would think this is practically an outright admission that if we have a mole, it's on Meta4's team.
Last edited by Hellheart on 23 May 2014, 17:50:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 17:49:16

Negotiating to sink Aldax instead of Antipater. Eeeenteresting. Maybe he's the nutjob after all.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 17:54:05

I want to see if anyone has the balls to vote Meta4 to defend Aldax.

I agree that Aldax is more likely to be the remaining nutjob than Antipater given how the voting's gone, but I think that Blindsniper is even more likely.

Then again, Blindsniper might have been snowing the living shit out of Simon :lol:

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 18:00:14

That was delicious.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 18:00:29

Oh man, both of those factions are going to hate me SO MUCH tomorrow.

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 18:01:39

Hellheart wrote:Oh man, both of those factions are going to hate me SO MUCH tomorrow.

Yeah, about that. Wanted to wait until EOD, but...

Vampires chose to kill sphenodont. So that faction is kinda screwed.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby Simple_Simon » 23 May 2014, 18:03:34

Dafuq?

Subject: Day 4 : Frosty Furin Frozen

sphenodont wrote:Hellheart, PJ, and Simon are wiretappers and sneaks. Don't trust them, folks.
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Night 4. New Moon.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 18:05:13

And cursing us with his dying breath. What a monster.

So, Max, nice to (briefly) make your acquaintance. Looks like Hellheart was spot on about you. Which means you must be Ravebomb's replacement and he was, in fact, in meta4's camp. DEFYING ALL LOGIC. But there you go.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat


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