Affiliation Charting Project

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Affiliation Charting Project

Postby Hellheart » 22 May 2014, 23:15:02

Something below is off. I think Ravebomb is on Meta4's team given that he fed Admetus dferrantino's name. I have no idea why he would even bother if he were on MEM's team.

Sociopaths
  1. MEM
  2. FurinMirado
  3. Admetus
  4. Antipater (speculated)

Stigmata's Team
  1. Stigmata
  2. Hellheart
  3. Simon
  4. MaxFrost

Meta4's Team
  1. Meta4
  2. sphenodont
  3. Ravebomb
  4. Ryvvn (speculated)

MEM's Team
  1. MEM
  2. Rictus
  3. Aldax
  4. Blindsniper (speculated)

dferrantino's Team
  1. dferrantino
  2. That PJ
  3. Zark
  4. twdog

Conversions
  1. That PJ (Night 3, Stigmata's Team)
  2. MaxFrost (Speculated but super-likely, Night 2, Meta4's Team)
  3. NONE (Night 3 Nightkill, dferrantino's team)
  4. Meta4 team member #4 (unless Ryvvn, then nope) OR Zark (Night 3 or 4, Okaros' team) OR None (all still alive)
Last edited by Hellheart on 24 May 2014, 02:24:21, edited 9 times in total.

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Re: Affiliation Charting Project

Postby Hellheart » 22 May 2014, 23:23:06

Using colored votes to peg affiliations using voting patterns and standard danger rules. I'll start with our virtually-confirmed affiliations:

[+] Day 1
Ravebomb - 4 - Meta4, Zark, twdog, Blindsniper
Blindsniper - 3 - MEM, Simon, Rictus
Stigmata - 2 - Hellheart, Admetus
MEM - 1 - Furin
Meta4 - 1 - Ravebomb
Aldax - 1 - Antipater
Admetus - 1 - Aldax
Zark - 1 - Okaros
Hellheart - 1 - Stigmata
Furin - 1 - That PJ
That PJ - 1 - Ryvvn
Ryvvn - 1 - dferrantino
Simon - 0 - Blindsniper


[+] Day 2
Meta4 - 6 - MaxFrost, MEM, Rictus, Hellheart, Stigmata, Simon
Stigmata - 6 - That PJ, Ravebomb, twdog, Zark, Hellheart, twdog, Antipater, sphenodont
Blindsniper - 2 - Ravebomb, dferrantino, Hellheart, twdog, Aldax, Meta4, sphenodont
twdog - 2 - Furin, Blindsniper
Ryvvn - 1 - Admetus, Simon
MEM - 1 - Okaros
Simon - 1 - Ryvvn
dferrantino - 0 - Ryvvn, Simon, Antipater, Admetus


[+] Day 3
MaxFrost - 3 - Rictus, Antipater, Blindsniper
Aldax - 3 - Hellheart, sphenodont, MaxFrost
Blindsniper - 2 - Meta4, twdog
Simon - 1 - Zark, Okaros
That PJ - 1 - MEM, MaxFrost
MEM - 1 - Furin
sphenodont - 1 - That PJ
Meta4 - 1 - Simon
twdog - 1 - Okaros
Hellheart - 1 - Aldax
Rictus - 0 - sphenodont

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Re: Affiliation Charting Project

Postby Hellheart » 22 May 2014, 23:40:51

Thinking about it now, it's entirely possible that MEM is the wolf sociopath instead of Okaros. I think Okaros is more likely because of both his voting and his PM behavior, but MEM being immune to conversion feels like he could be a Nutjob.

I'm going to run it through with Okaros as the sociopath, though, because there's no way to connect him to anyone. I hope I appear to be the same way.

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Re: Affiliation Charting Project

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 00:08:31

First iteration results are highly likely to be correct. Second iteration results depend on first iteration results, and as such are much more likely to be incorrect.

First iteration
  • Nobody can be on Stigmata's team or dferrantino's team because they're full.
  • Blindsniper not on Ravebomb's team or Meta4's team. Blindsniper is a Sociopath
  • Rictus likely not on Meta4's team. Rictus can't be a sociopath. Rictus likely on MEM's Team
  • Antipater likely either on Meta4's team or sociopath
  • Ravebomb likely not on Meta4's team. Ravebomb is not a Sociopath. Ravebomb likely on MEM's Team
  • Admetus had a Vig shot. Based on the symmetry theory, Admetus is a Sociopath

Second iteration
  • Antipater is on Meta4's team (assuming that two teammates voted to save him)
  • Aldax not on Meta4's team. Voting spread suggests he's a sociopath.
  • Furin's double-singleton on MEM without any retaliation suggests he's on MEM's team
  • That would make Ryvvn the final member of Meta4's team.

[+] Day 1
Ravebomb - 4 - Meta4, Zark, twdog, Blindsniper
Blindsniper - 3 - MEM, Simon, Rictus
Stigmata - 2 - Hellheart, Admetus
MEM - 1 - Furin
Meta4 - 1 - Ravebomb
Aldax - 1 - Antipater
Admetus - 1 - Aldax
Zark - 1 - Okaros
Hellheart - 1 - Stigmata
Furin - 1 - That PJ
That PJ - 1 - Ryvvn
Ryvvn - 1 - dferrantino
Simon - 0 - Blindsniper


[+] Day 2
Meta4 - 6 - MaxFrost, MEM, Rictus, Hellheart, Stigmata, Simon
Stigmata - 6 - That PJ, Ravebomb, twdog, Zark, Hellheart, twdog, Antipater, sphenodont
Blindsniper - 2 - Ravebomb, dferrantino, Hellheart, twdog, Aldax, Meta4, sphenodont
twdog - 2 - Furin, Blindsniper
Ryvvn - 1 - Admetus, Simon
MEM - 1 - Okaros
Simon - 1 - Ryvvn
dferrantino - 0 - Ryvvn, Simon, Antipater, Admetus


[+] Day 3
MaxFrost - 3 - Rictus, Antipater, Blindsniper
Aldax - 3 - Hellheart, sphenodont, MaxFrost
Blindsniper - 2 - Meta4, twdog
Simon - 1 - Zark, Okaros
That PJ - 1 - MEM, MaxFrost
MEM - 1 - Furin
sphenodont - 1 - That PJ
Meta4 - 1 - Simon
twdog - 1 - Okaros
Hellheart - 1 - Aldax
Rictus - 0 - sphenodont

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Re: Affiliation Charting Project

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 04:22:39

Modifying's your list, Hellheart, with my own musings.

I'm not sure how to lean on Aldax and Antipater. I figure one each is in MEM and meta4's team, but I'm not sure which is in which. Blindsniper is almost certainly the nutjob, based on his incredibly odd behavior and due to being the only human to share the bandwagon with the wolves on Day 2. We know Furin's a vigilante, now, so that rules him out of MEM's group.

Everything else seems to match what we know and can speculate.

I've also lined through the people who are permadead, so we can track the 'score' here. Shockingly even, but this discounts conversion shuffling, not that there's likely to be much of it.

Unaffiliated/Psychopath
  1. Okaros (Psychopath Wolf)
  2. Blindsniper (Probably THE Nutjob)
  3. Admetus (Vigilante)
  4. FurinMirado (Vigilante)

Stigmata's Team
  1. Stigmata
  2. Hellheart
  3. Simon
  4. MaxFrost

Meta4's Team
  1. Meta4
  2. sphenodont
  3. Antipater or Aldax
  4. Ryvvn (speculated)

MEM's Team
  1. MEM
  2. Rictus
  3. Ravebomb
  4. Aldax or Antipater

dferrantino's Team
  1. dferrantino
  2. That PJ
  3. Zark
  4. twdog

Conversions
On Day 1, Ravebomb and Admetus were sent on vacation. We know Admetus is an unaligned vigilante. We suspect Ravebomb to be in the MEM pack. That would mean they had a conversion opportunity on Night 2.

On Day 2, we lost stigmata, dferrantino was shot, and Ryvvn sent packing. The Vampirians chose to wait on their conversion, and stigmata-pack recruited That PJ on Night 3. The meta4-spheno pack would also have a conversion, if suspicions about Ryvvn are correct.

Thus:

  1. That PJ (Night 3, Stigmata's Team)
  2. One of MaxFrost, simple_simon, and Hellheart (Night 2, MEM's team)
  3. Someone unknown, if successful (Night 3, meta4-spheno's team)
  4. One conversion remains for dferrantino's team. Currently reported at 37% likely to fail.
Last edited by That PJ on 23 May 2014, 13:13:10, edited 1 time in total.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Affiliation Charting Project

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 13:11:45

Updated my chart.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Affiliation Charting Project

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 14:04:09

That PJ wrote:Updated my chart.

37% likely to fail isn't all that bad, actually. Out of what, 13 people? And you probably know who the sociopaths probably are.

One more player immune from last time (total of 5). That means 3 conversions, since it means you're almost certainly the new immune player.

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Re: Affiliation Charting Project

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 14:08:24

Hellheart wrote:
That PJ wrote:Updated my chart.

37% likely to fail isn't all that bad, actually. Out of what, 13 people? And you probably know who the sociopaths probably are.

One more player immune from last time (total of 5). That means 3 conversions, since it means you're almost certainly the new immune player.

Those figures were given to Vampiria minus vampiria, so it's either 10 (if he counted me, which he shouldn't) or 11. *runs numbers* It's 11. Should've seen that. So, 4 immune. Which I assume means some immune folks got nailed.

Also, nice job Furin! We thoguht Okaros was the psycho. WE WERE WRONG.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Affiliation Charting Project

Postby Hellheart » 23 May 2014, 14:18:39

That PJ wrote:
Hellheart wrote:
That PJ wrote:Updated my chart.

37% likely to fail isn't all that bad, actually. Out of what, 13 people? And you probably know who the sociopaths probably are.

One more player immune from last time (total of 5). That means 3 conversions, since it means you're almost certainly the new immune player.

Those figures were given to Vampiria minus vampiria, so it's either 10 (if he counted me, which he shouldn't) or 11. *runs numbers* It's 11. Should've seen that. So, 4 immune. Which I assume means some immune folks got nailed.

Also, nice job Furin! We thoguht Okaros was the psycho. WE WERE WRONG.

MEM. I knew it was one or the other. Fuck Okaros and his voting on his own every GD time.

Man, he wasted a bunch of time on those reads.

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Re: Affiliation Charting Project

Postby Hellheart » 24 May 2014, 02:07:18

Alright, let's try this again.

Starting Point:

3 Non-Affiliated (MEM, Admetus, Furin, 4th potentially dead)
4 Stigmata's team
4 dferrantino's team
3 Meta4's team (Meta4, sphenodont, Ravebomb)
3 Okaros' team (Okaros, Rictus, Aldax)

[+] Day 1
Ravebomb - 4 - Meta4, Zark, twdog, Blindsniper
Blindsniper - 3 - MEM, Simon, Rictus
Stigmata - 2 - Hellheart, Admetus
MEM - 1 - Furin
Meta4 - 1 - Ravebomb
Aldax - 1 - Antipater
Admetus - 1 - Aldax
Zark - 1 - Okaros
Hellheart - 1 - Stigmata
Furin - 1 - That PJ
That PJ - 1 - Ryvvn
Ryvvn - 1 - dferrantino
Simon - 0 - Blindsniper


[+] Day 2
Meta4 - 6 - MaxFrost, MEM, Rictus, Hellheart, Stigmata, Simon
Stigmata - 6 - That PJ, Ravebomb, twdog, Zark, Hellheart, twdog, Antipater, sphenodont
Blindsniper - 2 - Ravebomb, dferrantino, Hellheart, twdog, Aldax, Meta4, sphenodont
twdog - 2 - Furin, Blindsniper
Ryvvn - 1 - Admetus, Simon
MEM - 1 - Okaros
Simon - 1 - Ryvvn
dferrantino - 0 - Ryvvn, Simon, Antipater, Admetus


[+] Day 3
MaxFrost - 3 - Rictus, Antipater, Blindsniper
Aldax - 3 - Hellheart, sphenodont, MaxFrost
Blindsniper - 2 - Meta4, twdog
Simon - 1 - Zark, Okaros
That PJ - 1 - MEM, MaxFrost
MEM - 1 - Furin
sphenodont - 1 - That PJ
Meta4 - 1 - Simon
twdog - 1 - Okaros
Hellheart - 1 - Aldax
Rictus - 0 - sphenodont


[+] Day 4
Meta4 - 5 - That PJ, Zark, Simon, Rictus, Hellheart
Aldax - 3 - sphenodont, Furin, Antipater, Hellheart
Simon - 1 - MEM, Meta4
Antipater - 1 - Hellheart, Blindsniper
Blindsniper - 1 - Antipater, Okaros
sphenodont - 1 - twdog
Okaros - 0 - Simon


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