Night 6. A Duo is Left.

In the night, you strike.
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Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby rekard » 26 May 2014, 19:26:05

Only two of you I'm afraid.

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Hellheart » 26 May 2014, 19:31:14

O_O

The suspense! The Agony!

The chocolate?

Gus, calm yourself. He's probably still around.

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Hellheart » 26 May 2014, 19:42:54

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Whoa.

Image

Was the Evil Winking Wolf also the Nutjob? That's the ONLY thing that makes sense. The 4 Okaros team members voted together, we know Zark and twdog are on dferr's team (and I think they're both clean via Seer anyway).

...Simon, are you secretly also the Nutjob?

...Oh, wait. Human. I'm an idiot, of course he's not on a faction.

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Hellheart » 26 May 2014, 19:57:02

...Or not.

rekard wrote:Antipater was a Newpolis Rogues.


I just don't...how...I mean, sure, at one point I thought he could've been a member but if he was wouldn't he have known that Simon wasn't on Okaros' squad?

My head hurts. Who's the 5th nation? Is there a Nutjob that's still out there? What did I miss? If I'm actually right about Okaros' group...

Did one of their members get converted? That makes no sense, then he wouldn't vote with them to end the game.

Did I mention my head hurts?

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Simple_Simon » 26 May 2014, 19:59:03

Hellheart wrote:...Or not.

rekard wrote:Antipater was a Newpolis Rogues.


I just don't...how...I mean, sure, at one point I thought he could've been a member but if he was wouldn't he have known that Simon wasn't on Okaros' squad?

My head hurts. Who's the 5th nation? Is there a Nutjob that's still out there? What did I miss? If I'm actually right about Okaros' group...

Did one of their members get converted? That makes no sense, then he wouldn't vote with them to end the game.

Did I mention my head hurts?


I have had a headache for a couple of days.

So I take it all of Newpolis is gone?
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Hellheart » 26 May 2014, 20:01:31

Yeah. Maybe Ryvvn was the last non-affiliated, but I still don't know why on earth Antipater would've voted elsewhere. Maybe because he was on his own and either felt overwhelmed or just outright gave up?

Our spy HAD to come from Meta4. Sphenodont nailed our 3 living faction members, including one we had converted the night before. That doesn't happen by accident.

And PM's were disabled that day. The only way an Okaros spy gets that to him is by passing it through the wolf forum. Possible, but one hell of a stretch.

...
...
...

Or Antipater was just overwhelmed and voted near-randomly.

That's how it has to be, I think. 2 here, 2 there, 1 Newpolis and 4 Okaros members. It adds up.

But only if this mystical 5th nation is...oh, I'm an idiot. Furin's the last member, newly-resurrected. Obvious.

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Hellheart » 27 May 2014, 08:19:51

So, I really need to have a file where I type out all of the assumptions I'm making about the current game and player affiliations. And I need to force myself to read that file at the end of each day and see if I can confirm/deny any of them, and give the remainder an appropriate weight.

I knew that I sometimes retained previous assumptions from day to day, and that creates huge blind spots/misunderstandings for me. I didn't realize how systemic it was until I was driving home and thought about how the teams were made up. I need to stop doing things like when That PJ was saying there's probably one Nutjob, and I simply compromised to 2 instead of looking at the game state and seeing what would really make sense. I think if I'd done that (challenged assumptions), I would've caught a couple of things earlier and maybe made better decisions.

Things that I had wrong (that I know of; there probably are at least a couple of others):

  1. Although I had 5 "nations" (Furin and Admetus as "lovers" in Unaffiliated) I didn't exactly think about what that means or how they'd balance.
    • Furin, Admetus, and the other previously-unaffiliated human started on a team with 3 players, no wolf, but with 2 Vig shots and the ability to potentially unlock additional powers. The former balances out being down one player, the latter balances out not having a wolf on the team.
    • They may or may not have possessed a conversion as well.
  2. MaxFrost had to be a Meta4 convert. He was lynched on Day 3 so he had to be converted by Night 2, and there's no way Furin's team could've told Meta4's team that we'd converted That PJ.
  3. Ryvvn is on a team that either pulled off a conversion on Night 2 or couldn't convert - again, 4.5 immune players means only dferr's team and our team could convert on Night 3. Because we know Meta4's entire team, he's the 3rd Unaffiliated.
  4. That means that MEM was the Nutjob. He just was referred to with a lot of loose synonyms for "nutjob." And of course I ignored them all. Which totally messed up most of my faction reasoning yesterday.

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby rekard » 27 May 2014, 10:55:28

MEM description didn't say nutjob. He was a psychopath wolf. Highly functional psychopath wolf but no nutjob.

If he was, you would have known already.

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Hellheart » 27 May 2014, 17:07:19

rekard wrote:MEM description didn't say nutjob. He was a psychopath wolf. Highly functional psychopath wolf but no nutjob.

If he was, you would have known already.

It's honestly difficult to tell with you.

Seer Rictus --> FurinMirado

(( Under the assumption that one or the other is the Nutjob...but I'm only gunning to lynch one of those two.

Okaros may have pushed for resurrecting the Nutjob on purpose, knowing he'd help him end the game. But that's irrelevant because there'd be one or two rogue votes for Furin regardless and his whole damn faction voted for Furin. It was a done deal from the start. ))

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Simple_Simon » 27 May 2014, 17:18:23

Seer Rictus --> FurinMirado

Do we still need to bother with the nutjob? The shit already hit the fan didn't it?
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Hellheart » 27 May 2014, 17:23:05

Simple_Simon wrote:Seer Rictus --> FurinMirado

Do we still need to bother with the nutjob? The shit already hit the fan didn't it?

Depends on whether seer'ing him gets us anything. And the whole thing where somehow Okaros' squad is down a player.

Well, that part is "easy." Conversion, had to come from Team Nutjob. I'm honestly thinking it could easily be Okaros.

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby rekard » 27 May 2014, 17:25:53

Did I say somewhere there was a team of nutjobs?

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Simple_Simon » 27 May 2014, 17:27:48

rekard wrote:Did I say somewhere there was a team of nutjobs?


I thought we decided they were likely the lovers?
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby rekard » 27 May 2014, 17:30:55

I said this at the start :

Be careful! One player is a conspiracy nutjob and knows there is a secret faction. But he will need a few days to be able to reveal that your faction exists. He knows you'll be looking for him, so don't be obvious.


As far as I recall I have not said otherwise.

If I said somewhere there was a nutjob team, please let me know to clarify.

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Hellheart » 27 May 2014, 17:34:10

Simon, move off of twdog onto Aldax as a show of good faith please, otherwise he and Zark will lynch me.

---

Team Nutjob is a group of players that included or converted the Nutjob...or just started talking really closely with him. They are the 3 unaffiliated players, the "5th nation," so to speak.

The group that blocked PM communication? That's Team Nutjob. One Nutjob, two other players.

I mean, your blurb explicitly avoids stating that he's a sociopath, and he would "know there's a secret faction" if he's a member of one to begin with. Simple wordplay like that isn't going to fool me if I'm looking for it; you're leaving the option of his being a team member open.

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Simple_Simon » 27 May 2014, 17:38:40

Hellheart wrote:Simon, move off of twdog onto Aldax as a show of good faith please, otherwise he and Zark will lynch me.

---

Team Nutjob is a group of players that included or converted the Nutjob...or just started talking really closely with him. They are the 3 unaffiliated players, the "5th nation," so to speak.

The group that blocked PM communication? That's Team Nutjob. One Nutjob, two other players.

I mean, your blurb explicitly avoids stating that he's a sociopath, and he would "know there's a secret faction" if he's a member of one to begin with. Simple wordplay like that isn't going to fool me if I'm looking for it; you're leaving the option of his being a team member open.


I don't mean to be rude, but what current good would moving my vote to Aldax do?

Hellheart -3- Okaros, FurinMirado, twdog
twdog -2- Rictus, Simple_Simon
Simple_Simon -1- 7-Zark-7

3 votes remain ...

I intend to defend you and keep you from getting lynched (unless there is something I need to know?) however at the moment this is the best place for it. Otherwise it will be 3 - 1 - 1 - 1. I don't get it?
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Hellheart » 27 May 2014, 17:41:40

Moving to Aldax could get twdog and Zark to move to Aldax. That gives us 4 on Aldax, so we coinflip if Rictus switches.

Sitting on twdog means Zark will move to me to keep him alive, for 4 votes on me. Then Rictus makes it 5 and removes a vote from twdog...and I'm very very dead.

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Hellheart » 27 May 2014, 17:47:52

That said, I'm probably dead either way (and definitely dead after the maul). This route just makes twdog distrust you on top of it.

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Simple_Simon » 27 May 2014, 17:53:15

Hellheart wrote:That said, I'm probably dead either way (and definitely dead after the maul). This route just makes twdog distrust you on top of it.


You think anyone trusts me at this point. Have you seen my sig? If the opportunity arises I will try and help you, however I'm trying to get one of us to the end game. If that means not drawing further suspicion, I'm going to have to go that route. Honestly, it's been great working with you (or against you as the case could still be) but for the betterment of our team we need *someone* to survive. Rolling with the flow might just be the only option I have at the moment.
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Night 6. A Duo is Left.

Postby Hellheart » 27 May 2014, 17:59:34

Meh, there's still more to this game I'm missing, and I know it. Either Okaros started with 3 members or he was converted.

I'll resist the infodump since you can do it as well. Pretty sure Okaros is a Team Nutjob convert. Blindsniper giving me pause here though.

I kind of like Zark making that killing vote here. I deleted two mails sent to him because both times I faltered - if I'm missing something, HE could be the Furin convert. He does better under pressure.


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