Interview with a Vampire

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Interview with a Vampire

Postby 7-zark-7 » 20 May 2014, 07:54:11

As your loyal HR (Horny Reaper) representative, I believe I am well suited to open the conversation about our incentives program and new hire process. Let's look at our options, shall we?

Participants (20 - per sign-up thread). 5 Wolves 4 Vampires Dferr is split between worlds, bless him


meta4 Wolf
Okaros Wolf
twdog Vamp & master of baiting
7-Zark-7 Vamp & master of ceremonies
That PJ Vamp & master of... we need a role for That PJ

dead or dying:
Ravebomb - day 1 Lynch - Human
Admetus - night 1 Maul - Human Vigilante on Dferr
dferrantino WolfVamp® (day 2 Vig strike by Admetus)
stigmata Wolf Day 2 Lynch
Ryvvn Day 2 Maul
Furinmirado -night 3 maul - vig shot (Brownie) on MEM
MaxFrost ((missed day 1 vote)) Day 3 vote
Mister E. Meat Wolf (not the nutjob, could not be converted, Day 4 Vig strike by Furinmirado)

3 "not the nutjob" seer results
sphenodont ((missed day 1 vote)) (not the nutjob)
Hellheart -"not the nutjob"
Rictus (not the nutjob)

4 unidentified non-wolves:
Aldax
BlindSniper83
Simple Simon
Antipater


Goal "parity with all players" must occur before wolf parity. Therefore we need to eliminate other wolves while preserving Dfer, but we cannot be too effective in this goal (early elimination of Dferr could cost us the game by allowing a human victory).

We need to seriously consider how to spend our conversion (available only when one of us falls). If Dferr should fall, we should seriously evaluate using our our conversion for another wolf. Presuming most of us make it to the end game, a vigilante would be a nice addition to the team.

DFERR, have any of the wolves expressed they have a vig power? (not a vote)

If Dferr remains, it's temping to bring over another wolf (allowing continued influence over the maul). A wolf conversion may be dangerous near the end game, especially with strong analysts in play - their voting patterns may draw the lynch/maul costing us said conversion.

More in a bit,

7z7
Last edited by 7-zark-7 on 23 May 2014, 14:26:15, edited 4 times in total.
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"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Interview with a Vampire

Postby dferrantino » 20 May 2014, 07:59:45

Nothing interesting yet. Mauling Admetus tonight.

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Re: Interview with a Vampire

Postby That PJ » 20 May 2014, 08:35:00

Two things to keep in mind:

1. Some players are immune to conversion (the nutjob, but presumably others as time goes on)

2. If dferr dies, we can choose to get a nightkill instead of a conversion. In the late game, this may be better than converting someone, since we'll have better odds at success.

Too early to really favor converting someone over someone else with no intel, but I do appreciate the player list. Thanks HR!
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Interview with a Vampire

Postby That PJ » 22 May 2014, 09:30:52

I'm taking Zark's list and updating it/modifying it with intel and speculation.

Participants (20 - per sign-up thread). 5 Wolves 4 Vampires


Mister E. Meat Wolf
meta4 Wolf
Okaros Wolf

twdog Vamp & master of baiting
7-Zark-7 Vamp & master of ceremonies
That PJ Vamp & master of TBD

3 dead or dying:
Ravebomb - day 1 Lynch - Human
Admetus - night 1 Maul - Human Vigilante
dferrantino WolfVamp® (day 2 Vig strike by Admetus)
stigmata Wolf (Day 2 Lynch)
Ryvvn - Night 2 maul

10 unidentified Goodies: others:
sphenodont ((missed day 1 vote)), "not the nutjob"
MaxFrost ((missed day 1 vote))
Hellheart -"not the nutjob"
Aldax
BlindSniper83
Furinmirado
Simple Simon
Antipater
Rictus

Goal "parity with all players" must occur before wolf parity. And, presumably, before any other factions also reach parity.

Other Factions
What we know:
sphenodont claims to be in a team faction with a wolf. We suspect this wolf to be meta4 (his actions were protective of meta4 in maintaining a tie with stigmata). Has expressed a possible desire to bring back Ryvvn or Ravebomb, perhaps suggesting one is in his faction.

Ravebomb claimed intel from a "wolf-traitor" which he passed on to Admetus for his vig strike on dferrantino. The most logical wolves implicated as this traitor are Mister E. Meat and Okaros (meta4 and stigmata would have increased odds for destruction if dferr was shot, since he was tied with them). This may be indicative of another faction or an actual wolf-traitor/psychopath with a lone wolf or lovers win condition. Faction seems most likely considering the trend of the game, which would make Ravebomb aligned with either MEM or Okaros, but not Admetus (else why would he need to add Ravebomb to the chain unnecessarily and have communication with him?).

Admetus is a spent vigilante, and evidence so far suggests he is unaligned. He could be playing very secretive with his actual faction, but that would put a vigilante in that faction, which seems unbalanced (although we do have a single group revenge vigilante, if we trade in our conversion). Game lore does talk about ???? assassins who eliminate anyone claiming knowledge of the house's name, so I could sort of see a vigilante pseudo-faction or at least a psychopath or two.


What I guess:
Based on all of this info, I posit the following scenario for our 20 players:

- 5 players are wolves. Of these wolves, at least 3 are secretly in another faction. 1 may be a psychopath.
- 4 players (inc. 1 wolf) are vampires. They have several group-oriented powers and a nemesis (the nutjob), who may be particular to that group or a single nutjob speculating about all factions. No information so far excludes the nutjob from being a wolf.
- Faction 2 is presumably also composed of 4 players with one wolf. Let's call this the meta4-sphenodont group. We don't know who they are or what they can do, but they are also looking for a/the nutjob, which suggests that they have similar conversion/kill/GA powers. Given the broad spread of our powers, they're probably similar.
- Faction 3 we'll also say has 4 players and 1 wolf, and includes Ravebomb with either MEM or Okaros. It does not include Admetus.

The above accounts for 12+2 players, leaving 6 unidentified. It does not make sense for the nutjob to also be in a faction, unless it's, like, '???? Loyalists!' or something, and is essentially stock human. That would suggest that there's at most one additional faction for 4 total, leaving a remainder of 4 players. I think one of two things is possible:
1. There is a 4th faction, and the remaining four outside of factions are:
- The Nutjob
- A Psycho Wolf
- 2 vigilantes

Or, there are no more factions and we have:
- The Nutjob
- Psychopath Wolf
- Final Wolf (unaffiliated, actually playing it straight? Seems sorta cruel; maybe he has a vig)
- 2-3 vigilantes
- 2-3 psychopaths

A lot of speculation towards the end there, but the short of it is that we should spend some time looking at some of these vote patterns to see if we can isolate who sphenodont and Rave were working with.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Interview with a Vampire

Postby twdog » 22 May 2014, 09:39:04

Spehnodont just made another pro-Meta4 post, so more evidence for a "spehnodont-meta4" faction existing.
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Re: Interview with a Vampire

Postby That PJ » 22 May 2014, 10:08:58

Doing some analysis.

meta4 - We believe he's connected to sphenodont. We can probably rule out Simple_Simon as connected to him, too. There's no reason he needed to even try to snipe at the end, let alone to do so poorly. Most anyone else could be connected to him, though there is something to be said for Ryvvn, since sphenodont was pushing a revival. There's no sense reviving a player in another faction or a psychopath, so I can't imagine why he'd even suggest we revive him. I don't think it is particularly likely that MaxFrost is with him, either (started the bandwagon). Rictus pushed meta4 to a three-person wagon at a crucial juncture, so I think he is also unlikely.

Likely - sphenodont, Ryvvn
Unlikely - Simple_Simon, MaxFrost, Ravebomb, Rictus, Admetus
Neutral - Aldax, Hellheart, blindsniper, Antipater, Furinmirado

stigmata - I think based on the way things played out last night, we can rule out Antipater and sphenodont. Otherwise, I'm not getting a lot of vote analysis. We did a lot of the pushing on him, so that doesn't leave us much to work with, since it was usually reactive. Rave did follow us on him and stayed there, but we already suspect he's associated with Okaros or MEM.

Likely - ?
Unlikely - Ravebomb, Admetus, Antipater, sphenodont
Neutral - Aldax, Hellheart, blindsniper, FurinMirado, Rictus, MaxFrost, Simple_Simon, Ryvvn

Others
There's no constructive analysis to be made of MEM or Okaros, since neither has been in danger. However, certain players have exhibited levels of coordination, so if we peg one we may peg others.

(Gah, need to run, but I'll dig into this more later; feel free to add to it!)

Edit: More speculations.

Antipater went after dferrantino along with a couple others in utterly unjustified moves. That included Ryvvn and simple_simon as well. The latter is the more suspicious of the two, so I suspect an Antipater-simple_simon connection.

MaxFrost followed spheno's lead pretty easily, but I had him listed as unlikely. Can't recall why, but I'm sure it was good reason. Could be following his own faction in coordinating with spheno.

Rictus has claimed to spheno that he's unaligned. Possible nutjob candidate. We'll know soon enough. His behavior seems honestly unaligned, but I've never seen him lie, so I don't know.

Hellheart based on absolutely nothing, seems to be working with Okaros. I dunno, it just feels right, given his silence. Call it a hunch.

FurinMirado is rumored to be a lover and someone is trying to get rid of him. Not sure who. Might also be a trap to mislead us. Hopefully the wolves will tell us soon. Could have 3 down tonight.

Powers
- We have seen someone drop unidentified PMs all around town and fail on at least one occasion. Does not seem particularly limited.
- Someone may be able to spy on forums or specific posters. Could be related to the above.
- Sphenodont or his faction may have some ability to perceive Seer attempts.
- There is conversion immunity being spread at a greater than 1-for-1 basis. Suggests multiple people are able to pass immunity.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Interview with a Vampire

Postby That PJ » 22 May 2014, 17:45:54

Updated with some more rampant speculation.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Interview with a Vampire

Postby 7-zark-7 » 27 May 2014, 15:05:53

I've taken a fresh stab at logistics based on conversations with Furin and Okaros (with the understanding that we can fully trust neither - Furin won the resurrection vote, when ThatPJ was campaigning hard for it - I'm forced to wonder who else he had on his side that our votes would have tipped the scales, & Furin's logic seems sound on this point). I'm intentionally leaving this unlabeled for us on the basis of I might want to publish this sooner or later

Participants (20 - per sign-up thread). 5 Wolves, 5 factions heavily implied, perhaps 4 per faction saving wolves?

Note Newpolis Rogues are gone with 3 known players. I'd lay odds Ravebomb was their fourth as the other two were early day mauls publicly discussed in wolf thread. I doubt Meta4 would have let that fly out of the gate, but extending that logic, I would suspect any wolf teamed with Admetus would raise a stink about that day 1 maul based upon the unspent vig shot. It's a stretch, but I'm using this to argue that as a day 1 maul, Admetus was likely unaffiliated, which may be of interest when considering the other public vig (Furin)

Okaros has stated he has an alliance of convenience with "Sekrit", which may include some of Blindsniper83, Aldax, and/or Rictus based upon the last vote

The dead lay in pools of maroon below:

Admetus - night 1 Maul - Human Vigilante ((Vigilante on Dferr))
Ryvvn Day 2 Maul - Human
MaxFrost Day 3 lynch - Nightis Darksider Human ((missed day 1 vote))
That PJ - Night 4 maul - Nightis Darksiders - Human
stigmata - Nightis Darksider - Wolf Lynch Day 2


Ravebomb - day 1 Lynch {{presumed Newpolis Rogues}} - Human
Sphenodont - Newpolis Rogues - Human ((overnight Vig))
Antipater - Newpolis Rogues - Human
Meta4 - Newpolis Rogues - Wolf

dferrantino - faction unknown - Wolf (Day 2 Vig strike by Admetus)
Mister E. Meat - faction unknown - Wolf (Day 4 Vig strike by Furinmirado)

"Living" (caveat for Furin, you know, because of the whole undead brownie thing):
7-Zark-7
Aldax
BlindSniper83
Furinmirado -night 3 maul - human Vigilante (Vigilante Brownie on MEM). Returned from the afterlife
Hellheart {{presumed Nightsis Darksiders based on day 2 vote to save stigmata}}
Rictus
Simple Simon - {{presumed Nightsis Darksiders based on day 2 vote to save stigmata}}
twdog


Okaros - affiliation unknown, other than "Candyman" Wolf
"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker
"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros


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