Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

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Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby rekard » 22 May 2014, 18:30:26

MEM was immune to your charms. Try someone else.

Rictus is not the nutjob.

ALERT! ALERT!

We have a security breach! Something has happened. This is awful.

Our next conversion or kill has to be succesful.

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby rekard » 22 May 2014, 18:40:38

There is interference in your cellphones. Someone, no, a group of people has blocked you. You can't do PMs today.

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 22 May 2014, 19:06:58

I say we maul sphenodont

Edit:

And lynch meta4, via EOD mass snipe if we can't do it more subtly
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 22 May 2014, 19:27:07

twdog wrote:I say we maul sphenodont

Edit:

And lynch meta4, via EOD mass snipe if we can't do it more subtly


Can you phrase that in the form of a picture? :)

More in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 22 May 2014, 20:16:34

I plead "drunk"

---

Ok, forget hitting spehnodont and meta4. But if the board is being read, I don't understand how a picture helps; my little comics are shitty and unfunny. Or did you mean this:


aLOSCWBpwTQveUFThGwobR01LwcEspRTLZegkiiGT42gvppmORufxPaOjhiIUOBGdTNKZrrcMSAwIpRm
+t+kOoBtFXrFUvtKLEbCFWgRaqSbeaeQzSw8Pkis0KOzglR9VMCqT5iqoB8+n6NFhY7hLZgCeXThVW+3
zk7ySoVJmTIQwZzipqZclOmIzh485aaeDImwbU8Vrq4yl2SN5VrwhR1rmYoqvWiIMeCTDkfUr+c5SZu1
2Pd5RU2PhcyQAB3LfUCbX1gur/FIUr4Oe2AS4Q==


b3egXg3sHdUOkS0E4fqQNFlwCVAMnifrss6UpOWSTch5MUgdkoWsccm7CjKNMZRcz6CoQfgLLbdX404y
Ib3Ovz4UBjeQk8JNSNG7oBrxrZhCX3WWhLU21DgPJpaFHnPBJHJx9fUs/of53Qdmbtd5CxCUAmDrCPUq
Hg+Saa7j8oM=
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 07:20:05

As always, twdog, you get me. And I mostly get you. The devil as always is in the details.

Who do you believe we should adopt? I have a lair ready

More in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 07:48:44

We're kind of screwed regardless if someone is watching us, since we've been PM-maimed. I wonder if that's a nutjob thing or a faction power thing.

So, I have some thoughts; do you guys want me to put it in a picture, as twdog said?

<Encrypted>
1h1h3jFhq+Iea7ecufKZemc9uZE8ZyfYkNBARp+n0zAEBk1wBUIWIgaalDXBeYFctb5IXtrDHdCZ2STk
Wpd/fJoa+zh98TDpsvlatAzdeBmME31FHGOyCR8UhZpxb/59Ik+yT/tapBFXHyJ7whXOv5eQgcyLzPdr
OG9tQ9qH8mk5S1OSIcXWlpkNfvgXG49CcDydGGKsn2hVd9lZMxDc7q3uSpymbHiG9VABz8+HFoAb6COa
YQz6tm2bmu3Q9AqT6qf5IDe1b/RLiYdrqhKBWDZ2ahQv2oqaHhJFNr2rxAhDl5N/Q9f1hWhcvBhHWVsF
</Encrypted>
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 09:02:00

Went ahead and made a public post that is likely to get me killed. Had to be said, though. I tried to talk myself into aiming at blindsniper to keep things with spheno calm, but that would have required faulty logic to get there. Analysis just points so damn obviously at meta4.

EDIT: Rekard, can you confirm whether Furin's lack of vigilante identifier in the main post is a mistake or not? I want to know if my doubting him is legitimate, or simply a clerical error.

Additional clarification request: When you say 'our next conversion or kill has to be successful,' do you mean 'no chance of failure' or 'it has to be successful or we lose', or even 'it has to be successful or we never get the chance again'? If failing a conversion means we also lose the kill... I don't know, the kill probably has better odds of being successful.
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby rekard » 23 May 2014, 09:11:36

It was more like RP. I was just remarking the urgency of having a successful action. There has been a breach of some kind and having a successful action might help alleviate matters.

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 09:15:50

Do you have any percentages for this time as far as likelihood of conversion being successful?
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 09:16:41

That PJ wrote:We're kind of screwed regardless if someone is watching us, since we've been PM-maimed. I wonder if that's a nutjob thing or a faction power thing.


Looks like the PM thing is a faction power:
rekard wrote:There is interference in your cellphones. Someone, no, a group of people has blocked you. You can't do PMs today.


Pictures are nice.

A7z7H/qutVPVnv0Kdt+lqtm3aHE75kgyKxWfqM5AeujmGhjeBitMdcDmSMF5BQt3ewvMLfK575DpgjoG
gpE7i+/acG/jG0SQnKqEcS/c9tPMIYfI1gjULky66cH73kDpwJgAJeLs6mf5Nj+QAQDxTSRqR2G9NeKC
RpDO4L/438NCz1AJgh7hA22R7UGr9F4CWrM3MyBPd+lJZVzRXMKYHCmrYYK2Fzt455bCfkiUno1TPWlG
Qud/tMAvmWrOPHQiOPXKV3TgnrV7kWlCzqM0PtBkrrlXnFiDj/9VvFgP4Ey+kJjJiJ1QImibNMUJoWh+


Let's try this gambit:
<Encrypted>
NmXIddZGCinpTUz3iYLOs+/YoYejR3W7PWvI3xhekPRoZFyOmL9wGPqn00Mn9Tuz9Zu9tiVJdYNXLFWX
vYWhRrVjoxxs7VPlMd4kLgiUz80vnBi7WH2n5FnRyV2WGpAv
</Encrypted>

more shenanigans in a bit, but you're changing the subject

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 09:24:22

<Encrypted>
IYVyA2Y8MC/qDhrsZ33JR/enwvFTyvv6CpdngfuUkg0CoHqYb0xVrSt6aNfPpkQ2h6FV/AiryLd48Jz4
w5We6HtHdb6FSeGMYFtzy73JluP0O7Zzy3MOGetRbJvafb2Ku/AOJoe7iGm4RuTHZvTKO1E35TuRKcn2
SstPOYH0LhIC93MoLcZtHbcfKd2ghASsW3afxv+kK5Hq6HYIF9EHNL8p0qXfOsW/WbsjxFOuhp0=
</Encrypted>
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby rekard » 23 May 2014, 09:29:26

Ok guys. Don't make this a common thing. I don't have the resources to solve those codes atm. I need to know what you're saying to keep things kosher.

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby rekard » 23 May 2014, 09:30:36

You hear a loud cackle. Something bad is around.

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 23 May 2014, 09:31:59

<Encrypted>
/vZcszxPKsxreAdTqc4blsuJwkZkLWdTqM1+ouybSrsOGvaA2UgX38/MOCAdPKmd6XEY2mnna8nGWhyt
esvHJLrPDwMDpjI0l/w+zm9b/JAfpfp+OrQbwsgFBiihW8Dq/GrOb6oeLB42zlV7yPj2y8/sNgSuItcq
d0rsMhSnH8N44lw5dRbqNo4Z4JXdWoLEOskEINACucl8vCr18K8OUqFLExvXTTNj/GmMVouUPfLZPQcY
//zrIdmEHmg4fFqB
</Encrypted>
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 23 May 2014, 09:35:02

rekard wrote:Ok guys. Don't make this a common thing. I don't have the resources to solve those codes atm. I need to know what you're saying to keep things kosher.


What if we provide you a key?
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby rekard » 23 May 2014, 09:38:29

That's what I mean. I am managing the game with a tablet and phone. So between work and other stuff it's cumbersome to check upon.

Also, the only people watching this board are the members of this board. You three. Take this as your HQ where you're talking to each other.

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 09:41:17

rekard wrote:That's what I mean. I am managing the game with a tablet and phone. So between work and other stuff it's cumbersome to check upon.

Also, the only people watching this board are the members of this board. You three. Take this as your HQ where you're talking to each other.

Can't really blame us for being paranoid with talk of a security breach and mysterious cackling, but alright.
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 23 May 2014, 09:51:03

Alright then, whatever you say .... he said suspiciously, with his back to the wall

----

Although I'm slightly disappointed I didn't have a chance to do the diffe-hellman key exchange, because it would have been the geekest thing yet to happen on this board.

---

I go back to the suggestion of using the night kill because I think our window of opportunity for converting someone has passed.
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 09:53:55

twdog wrote:I go back to the suggestion of using the night kill because I think our window of opportunity for converting someone has passed.

I was going to go back to that suggestion, too, but I'm trying to see if we'll get conversion odds from rekard. I assume they're higher, and thus worse than 50% odds, so a kill does have a certain allure.

But, of course, who to kill?
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 10:01:08

twdog wrote:Alright then, whatever you say .... he said suspiciously, with his back to the wall

----

Although I'm slightly disappointed I didn't have a chance to do the diffe-hellman key exchange, because it would have been the geekest thing yet to happen on this board.

---


I agree. I concede the point that Rekard needs to see what we're typing, which is why I'll add this is entirely fluff:

uoSDELE2216/mBdLirSIEQ6EDajMV2LlpvOjqvpNRmbtq8bBZVwqBrsNHHQft25ovUABByY52nGbY3eh
WMaa0wxsUozhmhQ0hml1gEhHcjt0M4nYNst+UK9BSYc3EY0gv8Qe+/s2mo2zvT06MyzaXhsK9+pDiHXM
X0iH9Ej0GJPDSI/15gRctPXBD/ovOyPNNInrISH+4rHQgO+2CAKh6WFvBWlHErJIPt2ZhKOO/40Edxtr
T7uAUZHKNHG4S14iFDNUq7gAotrCnK5s7dWvkG6hcpc6bWDrRO43ugBXa7vOlniQhhCFG//OwUHkpx6S
Fz48eoGJ4bpm+Jnq1ftyQ98Sg1aoZpoS9jQqqwDROIx81pHh8AqNkXOB5VSq5E9Jofics66x7+Mj0yAL
tp3kR3kgxGInv6+jHSrEfGwgcjXEkqtTklee07K7nouDHn95KOXU+w5WJ6JVAmxNxTaCIL3f8vaA+o8g
YtMh734tvrwN+NRGHY60MWjoHvA6v0CcfkPW3xCJ9g3Jbwp21poorw==

And with that, no more cryto from me. I will say I'm proud we were able to exchange at least one non-obvious key. Also, I forwarded my crypto-furin-is-evil post to Hellheart as a last action yesterday. Wondering how much time he's throwing at the decrypt.

twdog wrote:I go back to the suggestion of using the night kill because I think our window of opportunity for converting someone has passed.


I'd second this. not sure who though - might be easier to state who we don't want to kill & pick from the leftovers. Looking about in thread.

More in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 23 May 2014, 10:03:07

I suggest:

maul meta4 > sphenodont

not a vote
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 10:10:34

Not sure mauling the wolf is a good plan. In theory, the game would have to get very small before we could loose the ability to lynch a wolf (unless he's protected by a larger private group. Whittling down the non-wolves (without actually joining Nafta) may be a better bet.

Nuking Spheno as the obvious leader of rings has it's potential though - his play is either a big bluff, or he's got some critical mass behind him, making him a bigger thread.

I don't believe we can take the risk of adopting given our lack of PM's has our group at a disadvantage in the knowledge gathering today.

More in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 23 May 2014, 10:16:05

My thought was to cut Spheno's group off from influencing the maul. Of course, if the teams are similar, that could mean they might get a night kill as a parting gift.

I can be here at EOD for some sniping, what about you two?
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 10:29:13

I can't guarantee availability at EOD (9pm ends are increasingly common, but fall in the "daughter is sleep, let's hear about the wife's day" section of the evening).

More in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby rekard » 23 May 2014, 10:30:53

According to our intelligence reports, 37% of players are immune to conversion. This % is based on all alive players but not including Vampirians or those going to vacation tomorrow.

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 10:41:03

Those are better odds than I anticipated. Hmm.

I want both meta4 and sphenodont dead. meta4 because right now that gives spheno (some) control of the maul, and that gives him power. If we remove him, it's just MEM and Okaros. One might be faction, but I think at least one of them is a loner. That keeps the faction wolves from forming an alliance and picking off their enemies one by one.

Sphenodont needs to go as a ringleader. I think h'es playing a massive PM game, and may be behind our silence. He may be the safer maul if we're worried about killing wolves. If we still believe Ryvvn was in his group (which seems plausible to me), that'd knock them down to two people, unless they also have a convert power. Gives us an edge over them for at least a little bit.

Ideally, Furin will kill one of them, but who knows who's feeding him intel. It'd be great to get a vig on one and a maul on the other, and leave us to try a conversion or kill another appealing target. Need to do some more analysis for other targets and look at the MaxFrost/Aldax stuff from yesterday, see if we can pin allegiances on those two.
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 10:42:36

rekard wrote:ALERT! ALERT!

We have a security breach! Something has happened. This is awful.

Our next conversion or kill has to be succesful.


rekard wrote:It was more like RP. I was just remarking the urgency of having a successful action. There has been a breach of some kind and having a successful action might help alleviate matters.


rekard wrote:You hear a loud cackle. Something bad is around.


So, I'm afraid we can't get completely off this topic. Something bad happened. What are our something bad variables?

1) The nutjob has found us (would explain the cackle, & how a convert/kill might help - if we somehow nuke the nutjob

2) forum has been compromised (Rekard has implied against an evesdropper):
rekard wrote:Also, the only people watching this board are the members of this board. You three. Take this as your HQ where you're talking to each other.


3) one of us has been compromised (we have a convert power, another team might as well.

I'll put out there now that I remain vanilla, & dedicated to the vampire cause.

next post to discuss possible kills, & more in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 10:54:59

Hellheart/Sphenodont/MEM/Rictus is not the nutjob.

MEM could not be converted

37% percent currently immune to conversion. what were the prior day numbers? That feels slower than expected, but I'd like to lay my hands on the metrics

Rekard has indicated that our kill/convert is critical. To this end, I've updated the HR database:

Participants (20 - per sign-up thread). 5 Wolves 4 Vampires Dferr is split between worlds, bless him


Mister E. Meat Wolf (not the nutjob, could not be converted)
meta4 Wolf
Okaros Wolf
twdog Vamp & master of baiting
7-Zark-7 Vamp & master of ceremonies
That PJ Vamp & master of... we need a role for That PJ

dead or dying:
Ravebomb - day 1 Lynch - Human
Admetus - night 1 Maul - Human Vigilante
dferrantino WolfVamp® (day 2 Vig strike by Admetus)
stigmata Wolf Day 2 Lynch
Ryvvn Day 2 Maul
Furinmirado -night 3 maul - implied vig shot - not yet taken
MaxFrost ((missed day 1 vote)) Day 3 vote

3 "not the nutjob" seer results
sphenodont ((missed day 1 vote)) (not the nutjob)
Hellheart -"not the nutjob"
Rictus (not the nutjob)

I'd like to discuss the 4 unidentified non-wolves wrote:Aldax
BlindSniper83
Simple Simon
Antipater


If we assume the wolves are split amongst teams, I believe it's slightly less likely that the nutjob is one of the three remaining wolves. If so, we've got a very narrow field of targets. Can we steer lynch towards one, & our nightkill towards another?

More in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 10:57:56

7-zark-7 wrote:So, I'm afraid we can't get completely off this topic. Something bad happened. What are our something bad variables?

1) The nutjob has found us (would explain the cackle, & how a convert/kill might help - if we somehow nuke the nutjob

That feels cackle-worthy. But I feel like we'd have more problems than a cackle--but I suppose we do. We also can't PM. Hmm. But he said a 'group of people' blocked us, which suggests faction. Unless the nutjob can build a faction? Ugh, I think that's going too deep.

2) forum has been compromised (Rekard has implied against an evesdropper):
rekard wrote:Also, the only people watching this board are the members of this board. You three. Take this as your HQ where you're talking to each other.

That seems like a pretty unambiguous 'there is nobody else here' statement, which leaves...

3) one of us has been compromised (we have a convert power, another team might as well.

I'll put out there now that I remain vanilla, & dedicated to the vampire cause.

Which is a good point. I've been bouncing back and forth as to whether these teams are symmetrical or asymmetrical in terms of powers. I'd been leaning asymmetrical due to the PM block, which suggests conversion is limited, but that doesn't really mean nobody else can convert. The question is what we'd see if someone got converted, and whether they'd disappear entirely from our forum or hang around as a spy.

I suppose a 'woop woop security breach' message would be the kind of thing we'd see. :(

And though I appreciate the claim, Zark, unfortunately all of us will say that, converted or not. We'd have to analyze who we're most useful to and whether they need to convert--which would in itself tell us something.

It's kind of a moot point, today. This forum is all we've got, so it's not like we're leaking intel from PMs. If we stop talking entirely, we're only hurting ourselves.

pre-post edit: just saw your player analysis post; will respond shortly.
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 11:15:34

That PJ wrote:And though I appreciate the claim, Zark, unfortunately all of us will say that, converted or not. We'd have to analyze who we're most useful to and whether they need to convert--which would in itself tell us something.


Agreed. I specifically raised this paralell to a block of analysis to bring up a point: Any analysis would/should be designed to lead the team in a direction favoring said players allegiance. Comparing this against my prior analysis is one of the best tools you got to verify my honesty on this point.

More in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 23 May 2014, 11:49:09

Well, I'm always quick to distrust my teammates. For instance, before dfer was killed off, I had privately PM'd rekard to ask about possible victory conditions for dfer to see if it he might be able to kill us off and then win with the wolves.

However, I'm not entirely convinced that the warning today means that someone was converted last night, because of this:

rekard wrote:It was more like RP. I was just remarking the urgency of having a successful action. There has been a breach of some kind and having a successful action might help alleviate matters.

emphasis mine.

If we kill/convert someone I don't see how that would alleviate anything. Unless it's a roundabout way of saying "if we reconvert the converted person then matter will be alleviated."* I'm more interested in the one yesterday. It wasn't a night power, or it'd have been announced at the start. Even if it was a conversion that was being hinted at, why would it be announced in the middle of the day? Unless it's an "instant conversion" like a vig shot? But that's not how ours works, and like I said, if today's announcement was referring to a conversion, then what's that bit about "alleviate" mean?

If one of us has been converted, and I am not ruling out the possibility, I don't think these messages are indicative of that.

I tend to lean towards the idea of a power suppression. Our conversion was suppressed, and now we've lost temporarily lost PM powers.






*I'm quite willing to be belive that someone(s) is reading this board. I noticed that rekard's language leaves enough wiggle room for someone else to be reading the board. He said that the only the "members of this board" can read it, but if someone else was reading it obviously they'd need to be a member of the board's security group. He then said "You three" but while we're obviously part of this boards security group, he doesn't say if anyone else is part of it. However, he did tell us to stop encrypting, and that'd be a massive jackass move to pull if he'd opened up the board to be read by some other player(s). I'm going to assume that rekard isn't quite that big of an ass, and so assume that we're not being eavesdropped on.
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby rekard » 23 May 2014, 12:00:49

Sorry for the confusion. What I meant mostly as RP was :

Our next conversion or kill has to be successful.

Imagine it as your liason getting worried because an unexplained security breach happened. Then he's like "Dudes, let's try to make something happen because this breach means something bad happened."

Basically it was a phrase to explain the danger of your situation.

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby rekard » 23 May 2014, 12:02:33

As I said. Only Zark, PJ and twdog can see this board.

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 23 May 2014, 14:06:04

Thanks for that confirmation, rekard.

----

Unfortunately, given how this game is going, it’s not impossible that in the future we may need to post messages on a .... let us say ... insecure ... board. I’m going to quickly show how to do a diffie-hellman key exchange which is an easy(ish with a calculator) and quick-ish way for two people to agree on a secret number in a public space. That secret number can then be used as an encryption key.

I'm really trying to simplify, and I'm sorry if you already know this. If you use the Window calculator, you need to switch to “scientific” view.

Say Alice and Bob want to talk, but need to setup a secure channel, and they don't have anywhere private to set it up. If they did, they wouldn’t to bother with this at all. Start with two safe prime numbers, and these will be posted openly.

We'll use:

5

479

Then both of them pick a number, and keeps it secret.

Alice’s secret pick is 40
Bob’s secret pick is 65

--- Phase 1 ---

Alice does:
540 mod 479 = 15

Bob does:
565 mod 479 = 189

Alice then posts 15 publicly, and Bob posts 189 publicly

--- Phase 2 ---

Alice does:
18940 mod 479 = 84

Bob does:
1565 mod 479 = 84


... and we’re done. The shared secret key is 84

Besides the key itself, you should also keep the starting private picks secret. Due to MATH!!!! reasons, it is infeasible for a 3rd party to find the output number based on the public posts. While you can generate dh keys with 3+ people, it's kind of a pain, so I recommend having one person be the "coordinator" and having everyone else negotiate a common key through that person.

----

If you need to do this for some reason, please give rekard the key.

----

If you want to give it a try, let's use

5

1907

and my phase 1 output is 1582
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 23 May 2014, 14:08:50

So ... if I write up more posts that involves math will another wolf die? ;)


Ok, so what if we try to talk out both wolves today? Lynch one and night kill the other? Meta4 has to go, and I don't like the idea of leaving one faction in exclusive control of the maul.
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 14:16:34

twdog wrote:So ... if I write up more posts that involves math will another wolf die? ;)


Ok, so what if we try to talk out both wolves today? Lynch one and night kill the other? Meta4 has to go, and I don't like the idea of leaving one faction in exclusive control of the maul.

I was pretty sure MEM was a faction wolf. Guess it's Okaros after all. Not disappointed in that shot at all, Furin.

Zark--still working on that analysis. It's open in another tab. I haven't forgotten.
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby rekard » 23 May 2014, 14:37:11

As a note:

The higher the immune % you see, it tells you about the status of your faction.

In other words, if you see a 70% conversion immunity, it means you're in good shape. The lower the %, the worse shape you are in.

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 14:45:25

rekard wrote:As I said. Only Zark, PJ and twdog can see this board.


I'm taking Rekard as being on the level RE no Carthaginians (ahem - no, autocorrect... I love you, but no) Shenanigans with who can see our board.

rekard wrote:The higher the immune % you see, it tells you about the status of your faction.

In other words, if you see a 70% conversion immunity, it means you're in good shape. The lower the %, the worse shape you are in.


And

rekard wrote:According to our intelligence reports, 37% of players are immune to conversion. This % is based on all alive players but not including Vampirians or those going to vacation tomorrow.


Between this and the "you really should kill or convert" conversations, I have a feeling our lovely and talented GM is telling us we're running out of time.

I've got some logic, but am putting in a new post to avoid Zark wall of text syndrome

More in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 14:47:10

7-zark-7 wrote:Hellheart/Sphenodont/MEM/Rictus is not the nutjob.

MEM could not be converted

37% percent currently immune to conversion. what were the prior day numbers? That feels slower than expected, but I'd like to lay my hands on the metrics

rekard wrote:Our intelligence reports that sadly the players immune to our conversion are now ~42% (not including you or the vacationeers).

So they were higher yesterday. Yesterday we had, uh... 12 people to work with, minus ourselves/vacationers. 42% immunity is 5 of them immune. Today we have two less, so 10 people available, 37% immune. Which is... not a logical number for 10 people. That's 3.7. So unless we're talking about people with a chance of being immune, I'm a little lost. Probably safest to assume somebody who was immune got sent on vacation and... nobody else became immune? Or two got sent packing and they added one more. The whole conversion/immunity thing is baffling to me. But gist of it is that among these people, 6 are convert-able:
Aldax
Antipater
blindsniper
Hellheart
meta4
Mister E. Meat (I started writing this before the vig shot)
Okaros
Rictus
Simple_Simon
sphenodont

It'd obviously be awesome to convert someone we know is in a rival faction. I have no idea if sphenodont has some kind of immunity or not, and we've confirmed Rictus and Hellheart as 'not nutjob', so they could be useful. If we want an alternative to killing someone.

The rest of this I'm replacing with my own chart. I do better thinking about this by faction than by wolf/not wolf.

What we know:
Factions - Probably 4, each with a wolf, which leaves 3 unaligned humans (one of them the nutjob) and 1 unaligned wolf (psycho MEM).

meta4-pack - Includes sphenodont, almost definitely. Probably included Ryvvn. If teams are symmetrical in powers, they have had a chance to convert someone (would've been effective Day 3).

Okaros-pack I thought this was MEM, but someone had to feed information to Admetus through Ravebomb for him to get shot, and meta4 and stigmata were both in danger at the time. MEM could've done it, but not through Ravebomb; ergo Ravebomb and Okaros are in a pack. If powers are symmetrical, they have also had a convert opportunity (effective Day 4). Which means if we do have someone converted, they might be in Okaros' group.

stigmata-pack I have a very hard time getting reads on, since he went down when dferr dropped. If powers are symmetrical, they also had a conversion opportunity effective Day 4 (so it could be one of us). Members are probably laying low to avoid a maul, since they no longer have insight into the maul. Presumably does not include Antipater, since he voted to tip the balance against stigmata at a crucial juncture. May include any of Hellheart, simple_simon, Rictus, or Max, since they all voted on meta4 (although simon seems doubtful, given his ugly-looking snipe next to stigmata's self-defense snipe).

Unaffiliated:
Admetus - Vigilante
FurinMirado - Vigilante
MEM - Psycho Wolf
??? - Nutjob

3 "not the nutjob" seer results
sphenodont ((missed day 1 vote)) (not the nutjob)
Hellheart -"not the nutjob"
Rictus (not the nutjob)

I'd like to discuss the 4 unidentified non-wolves wrote:Aldax
BlindSniper83
Simple Simon
Antipater


If we assume the wolves are split amongst teams, I believe it's slightly less likely that the nutjob is one of the three remaining wolves. If so, we've got a very narrow field of targets. Can we steer lynch towards one, & our nightkill towards another?

I'm going to take a leap here and guess that the random messages we're getting are connected to either the nutjob or MEM. Maybe both. If that's the case, I'm going to rule out Antipater right off the bat, because I don't think he's capable of that much work. Simple_simon outing all the wolves makes it pretty clear he's in some faction (or got really lucky on PMs), so I'm discounting him, too. We also have some intel from spheno which, if accurate, clears him.

That leaves Aldax and Blind. Of the two, I lean Blind because he was the only non-wolf to build heat on Day 2. That just strikes me as damn peculiar. Also word association of 'nutjob' makes me think 'blindsniper.'

So at present, my best guess on the nutjob is blind. We can try to validate that with a Seer tonight. But I'll be the first to admit my intel is weak; happy to aim for Aldax if you guys prefer. I favor this instead of an outright nightkill, because... well, because I really don't want to miss, and that could be an incredibly valuable tool in eliminating a rival (like, say, spheno).

We should also consider the maul, which we have no intel about. You were on the chopping block before, Zark. If we think it's likely they'll kill you tonight, we should consider that GA in our back pocket.

Thoughts?
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 15:03:21

we should consider that GA in our back pocket


I'm working on a longer post, but need clarification on this. What is the GA you speak of?

More in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 15:06:13

I've updated the HR tables with MEM's unfortunate brownie incident. - latest rev spoilered below for readability:

[+] shaka when the smurf fell
Participants (20 - per sign-up thread). 5 Wolves 4 Vampires Dferr is split between worlds, bless him


meta4 Wolf
Okaros Wolf
twdog Vamp & master of baiting
7-Zark-7 Vamp & master of ceremonies
That PJ Vamp & master of... we need a role for That PJ

dead or dying:
Ravebomb - day 1 Lynch - Human
Admetus - night 1 Maul - Human Vigilante on Dferr
dferrantino WolfVamp® (day 2 Vig strike by Admetus)
stigmata Wolf Day 2 Lynch
Ryvvn Day 2 Maul
Furinmirado -night 3 maul - vig shot (Brownie) on MEM
MaxFrost ((missed day 1 vote)) Day 3 vote
Mister E. Meat Wolf (not the nutjob, could not be converted, Day 4 Vig strike by Furinmirado)

3 "not the nutjob" seer results
sphenodont ((missed day 1 vote)) (not the nutjob)
Hellheart -"not the nutjob"
Rictus (not the nutjob)

4 unidentified non-wolves:
Aldax
BlindSniper83
Simple Simon
Antipater


Goal "parity with all players" must occur before wolf parity. Therefore we need to eliminate other wolves while preserving Dfer, but we cannot be too effective in this goal (early elimination of Dferr could cost us the game by allowing a human victory).


So here's my thought. If I'm doing my math correctly (jury is out), there are 12 living players, and the identity of the 2 remaining wolves is the worst kept secret of the game.

Beneficial to us Scenarios involving our nightkill:
1) Day/Night 4: Lynch is a non-us human/Wolves maul a non-us human, & we successfully convert count drops to 10, of which we comprise 4.
Day/Night 5: Lynch is a non-us human/Wolves maul a non-us human, & count drops to 8, of which we comprise 4 - we win via parity

2) Day/Night 4: Lynch is a non-us human/Wolves maul a non-us human, & we maul a human count drops to 9, of which we comprise 3.
Day/Night 5: Lynch is a non-us human/Wolves maul a non-us human, & count drops to 7, of which we comprise 3.
Day 6: Lynch is a non-us human, dropping the count to 6, of which we comprise 3 - we win via parity before the maul takes place

Less popular variants include where one of us draws the lynch/maul. But, given the 2 wolf players could be taken out with a pair of lynch days, or a combination of lynch/vig strike, & we can't reach parity before night 5 under best scenarios, I don't believe it's beneficial to rush human win by mauling a wolf.

A dangerous assumption is that we're the only group with a parity goal. Rekard is being generous with his warnings, which means if we're not on top of our game, someone else is. If another group has a parity goal & is larger than us (IE, a 4 person team already), they could reach parity first.

Still thinking, more in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 23 May 2014, 15:34:50

I actually wondering if That PJ is on too sometime about the "percentage of immunity" being about the chance of success per attempt, as opposed to how many players are immune. That's really the only way I can square the immunity percentages with the amount of players, the rate of change, and rekard's statement that the immunity percentage is based on how we're doing.

So, we may actually want to give conversion a try again; Zark's correct about the outcomes. I fully believe that the other groups do have parity as an objective; we can't just wait the others out quietly.

However, if we try to convert tonight, and it fails, not only will whatever bad thing rekard's hinting at happen, it'll also give the meta4\sphenodont group that much more time to build up. I feel like we need to take out sphenodont via nightkill or lynch this cycle. There's zero votes on him now, so I feel that leaves the nightkill ... or I suppose we could try to convert him, but that seems ... dubious.
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 15:39:31

I might shift off meta4, might not. Will be offline for the next hour or so though.

I'd be in favor of killing Sphenodont (not bolding as I don't want this to be default action if things change & I can't make it back)

Seer attempt Blindsniper

More in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 16:43:08

7-zark-7 wrote:
we should consider that GA in our back pocket


I'm working on a longer post, but need clarification on this. What is the GA you speak of?

More in a bit,

7z7

This one:
rekard wrote:- You have a 1 time Night protection on any one player of your team. It doesn't protect against the lynch. If it is succesful, it will render you unable to convert/kill other players for various days. You can't protect converted players. If you have done a conversion, you can't protect players for 2 days after that. This is a last resort. Since there is no GA, it will make everyone suspicious, especially the conspiracy nutjob.

But I forgot how it interacts with our kill/convert, so... that's problematic.
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 17:15:23

I'm giving the convert/kill question more thought, and this is kind of where I'm landing.

If we kill someone, it has to be sphenodont. We know what faction he's in, but we don't know all of his allies or contacts. We think they're slightly weakened, but we don't know, and I frankly think the threat of his manipulating the lynch tomorrow is excessively dangerous. If we knew the nutjob, I'd pick him, but this is really our next best option.

Converting is better for our odds of victory--since we'd increase our numbers--assuming we pick right. There's theoretically only a risk of lost time, here, since if it fails we still have a kill shot. Of our now 9 options, if we kick out the possible nutjobs (to me, that's Aldax, Antipater, and Blindsniper), we come up with:
- Rictus
- Hellheart
- Simple_Simon
- sphenodont

And the two wolves:
- Okaros
- meta4

The question becomes: do we try to convert a wolf or not, and I think that question hinges on whether meta4 is up for the lynch today. Because if he is, we need to try for Okaros. If we can clinch the lone wolf, we can control the maul; if we control the maul, we win. We might lose one of us due to spheno manipulation the next day, but we can have him removed that night. Hopefully, though, we'll have pinned down the nutjob by that point and can pile on him. Nobody else will want the wolf dead.

If we think that's too risky and he's likely protected, then of our human options... I don't know. Capturing sphenodont would be a risky but potentially awesome maneuver, in that we'd have his network and his faction. And his wolf, unless meta4 dies. The others are less valuable because of a not-insignificant chance that they are part of stigmata's pack, and they're in no better state than we are without a wolf. But they're also less, erm, public than Mr. Sphenodont.

So breaking that down, I think we need to decide which of these options is in our best interests:

1. Kill sphenodont. Higher chance for success (I think), removes a major rival, weakens a wolfed team.
2. Convert sphenodont. Seems risky for success rate, but the payoff is another member and lots of intel. But we could lose him very fast to a lynch.
3. Convert Okaros. Gives us intel from his faction and control of the maul (complete control if meta4 dies, otherwise partial). But he might be immune. Probably the riskiest option, but the biggest payoff.

What do you guys think?
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby twdog » 23 May 2014, 17:25:49

I say kill sphenodont
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby 7-zark-7 » 23 May 2014, 17:26:41

I agree with your analysis, & would go with Kill sphenodont.

Assumption is that he controls the largest rival faction. If we're in a parity race, it may be the best option

Rekard, can we GA Zark > kill sphenodont as a conditional? I'm thinking of GA only if I'm mauled, but if maul doesn't point my way, then the kill?

I don't think this is the right move, as I'm human & an argument could be made for revival, but we may loose any parity option if we don't use our night power.

Best

More in a bit,

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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 17:31:35

Then let's go for it. Kill sphenodont it is.

I don't know if he'll respond in time, but I suspect rekard won't let us kill and protect at the same time. Would like to be proven wrong.

Also, a backup in case blindsniper winds up dead. We should Seer blindsniper --> Antipater. (Could just as easily be Aldax if you guys prefer; I'm torn on the three of them).
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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That PJ
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Re: Night 4. Need better Hypnosis.

Postby That PJ » 23 May 2014, 17:45:19

twdog, I think you should prepare for the possibility of a last-minute mass snipe from spheno's team/allies to try and clear meta4. Gotta be the reason people are holding back. Unfortunately, yours is the only vote at liberty to move.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat


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